Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[writz] 31/5/2014 11:53

Sorry for slightly O/T question, but I'm looking for a way of tracking significant changes in daily volume for individual shares across the entire market. ADVFN does a toplist of gainers etc., which has its uses, but I'm not finding a way to identify changes in sentiment on a share that don't immediately result in price action or follow from official news releases. Anyone have any ideas...? TIA.

[bogg1e] 31/5/2014 11:53

Ive often thought that perhaps Iofina could farm out their tech to other companies including the Japanese who extract iodine from O&G operations.

[roger melly] 31/5/2014 11:38

Lundin calling?

[freshvoicem] 31/5/2014 11:31

They tend to buy a 'significant'interest not the whole company if it's who I think it is.

[cyberbub] 31/5/2014 10:59

You mean perhaps the Japanese taking a strategic stake? Maybe even preparing to take us out? Personally I would see a takeover under 100p as criminal, considering our IP. 150p at this point probably fair value....No advice intended.

[freshvoicem] 31/5/2014 10:51

A lot of the large after hours trades shown as sells were worked trades during the day. You can tell from the number of decimal places!
I think most were buys not sales so someone I'd aggressively buying, could be Mr Big topping up?

I still look to the Orient, and I don't mean Leyton, for where this interest is coming from.

[dcgray21] 31/5/2014 10:47

Che thanks .

SG - on topic didn't mister big reference 'beware the ides of June ' when battling with the balcony brigade last month. Well we have an aggressively moving share price and June and an AGM is now casting its shadow over us.

[che7win] 31/5/2014 10:33

dc,
Sorry ot, management believe TPL mispriced, enough said, I raised a lot of concerns which will be passed on to the rest of the board, every thing from the Dr's consultancy fees to warrants and loan interest rates and of course admin expenditure.

I'm never afraid to post negatives on any share I own.

Apologies, back to on topic here.

[dcgray21] 31/5/2014 10:19

Che - thanks for the note on TPL . As a LTH myself I'm glad you've been reassured about your investment.

[che7win] 31/5/2014 10:05

One other thing, there is plenty of manipulation going on in the markets, there isn't always a rational explanation.

REM rise looks suspect, TUNG rise was clearly due to insider knowledge about the banking licence, it rose well ahead of news.

Is there news here, I'll leave that to others to work out, although it was clear we were building up to a break out this week as I suggested ahead of time in post 21294.

I expect a 50% rise in May production over April, but would be delighted with more!

[che7win] 31/5/2014 09:38

My reading of the market is the bears had control recently up to a couple of weeks ago, so growth stocks were not flavour of the week. Many investors were calling a top in the market.

That hasn't happened, risk is definitely back on the agenda.

Look at REM, it doubled in the past week, way too quickly, I have been monitoring.

Other growth stocks have rebounded strongly, hence IOF has joined, I did mention them recently.
TUNG up 40%, BLNX up 30-40%, flyb recovered, GBO 25% etc.
IOF rebound has to be taken into context of the wider market to some degree, it's patented technology was undervalued.

One thing is sure and I agree with superg, the easy pickings are over, the rising tide has retreated a bit.
The wheat is being separated from the chaff, hence companies like BLUR have been found wanting. Blur was the best shorting opportunity I have seen in a long time, it would persaude me take up shorting.

The market for ludicrous IPOs has ended, I felt recent IPOs like SAGA were well overvalued, as was PLND and AO. which I decided to pass, I haven't done an IPO since the Post Office although I have vetted most.

I am constantly monitoring in excess of 60 stocks for opportunities, I missed OBT at 6p, but I knew IOF better and it was cheaper and less risky to me.

I took an extremely low punt on AVP recently, it's an RTO so a bit of fun.

Other stocks like TPL will take time, but having spoken to a TPL director for 35 minutes this week, I am content to hold/add.

As for IOF, I have a record amount, so I am grateful for the derampers and those calling us bulletin board morons who give me the opportunity to grab as many as possible. Short term, it can do its thing, I have no doubt that we will be well into three figures in the next 12-18 months. One of the best opportunities I can see.

There are always opportunities, but DYOR.

[angel of the north] 31/5/2014 09:30

Go back a few posts and you will see we have a new member 'on the balcony' lol!

[superg1] 31/5/2014 09:24

This buying is and volume is completely confusing.

Mid May the rumour (backed up) was the supply would start to dry up in week 3 and 4.

There is a post saying if the supply is tight then volumes tend to drop as the waiting bigger buyers can't find stock at the price they want.

The lowest volume then came on the 23rd of May 300k.

Move forward to this week (4 trading days) and the volume is 8 million total and the price has taken off, flying through the Numis price target.

The recent volumes imo are crazy compared to the circumstances.

There seems to be a very aggressive buyer beyond normal investors. That is not how insti's normally behave.


22mt in April and a hope for 30 to 35 in May.

8 to 13 mt of iodine increase ($320k to $520k). Yet in recent times due to the forced sells, bear attacks and general chaos, the market cap has increased by about £50 million.

Totally ridiculous under all the circs (the big drop). If you go on prospects and future value, then many AIMs compared to IOF should have been dead and buried long ago.

Blinx and QPP have been left where they were post attacks. IOF is the one that has recovered very strongly.

I half wonder if the volumes are supported by 'forced buys' for once. As the balcony seems to have gone very quiet.

No doubt they will be back, once they think they can manipulate investors into selling having taken positions. Maybe they did as they thought 50p would be the peak. I know many traders did, but it has marched on.

What is going on I have no clue, but this is not normal IOF buying, imo something other than iodine production increases is brewing.

That or simply tight supply and buyers, but the buying just seems too aggressive for normal service resumed.

[crosseyed] 30/5/2014 19:15

Hi engelo,

Yes, staff numbers are published at year-end in the Annual Reports, though as you see, I estimate IOsorb numbers, the only ones at the moment that one might expect to be increasing, on the basis of employment from the month prior to start of production at 8 per plant. That would indicate that there are will be perhaps a futher 24 by the time IO6 becomes operational. LB has pruned 2 from the directors so a stab at end-of-year staff would be 95, maybe close to that now.

By the way, although directors increased to 8 at the end of 2013 (from 6 at end of 2012), I don't think they were being overly remunerated: the directors pay & benefits increased from $549,000 to $727,000 which is commensurate with the increase in numbers and very modest in comparison with directors of other companies.

c

[woodpeckers] 30/5/2014 19:04

You're doing a great job there crosseyed, thanks for putting in the time and effort to put that together.

[engelo] 30/5/2014 19:02

Weak near the end of the day. A contributing factor may have been weakness in the overall market triggered by a sudden drop on Wall St near 4.30 pm and the market thinking that WS was about to have one of its Friday collapses. So profit taking on recent quick gains. For some traders tha AGM is over the horizon, next month sometime.

[engelo] 30/5/2014 18:54

Crosseyed: that's a nice piece of work and must have taken some time. Thanks.

Presumably staff numbers are taken at year end. Comparing (by eye) ratio of staff numbers in 2012/2013 with staff salaries it looks as though there was a big expansion in the second half of the year, which confirms what we were told Gilbert and George were doing.

Would be interesting to know what the staff numbers are now.

[crosseyed] 30/5/2014 17:47

Here are the results of a little study to ascertain the unit costs of labour for IOsorb plants and the IOchem factory respectively.IOsorb and Iochem labour costs201120122013Total staff353973Directors568Admin/HQ557Tech IOsorb5838Tech IOchem202020Staff ex Directors303365Adjusted man-mths396538Staff pay & benefits$m269429564521less Directors pay & benefits $m585549727Staff ex-Directors$m210924073794Av staff costs/man-mth$79467078IOsorb labour/plant/mth$m/mth8/plant63.556.6IOchem labour/mth$m/mth20158.9141.6The principal data are taken from the Annual Reports f0r 2011 to 2013. The break-down of staff numbers at year-end, apart from the number of directors which were indicated, was estimated by myself. The IOchem factory was operational throughout the whole period, apparently at quite a steady level, so I have assumed 20 staff throughout operating one shift per day.IOsorb plants commenced in Sept 2012. I have assumed 8 persons per plant (assumed operating 24/7) with some trained staff originating from the former WET pods (5 at the end of 2011). (For the Mini IOsorb units, I think a resonable estimate would be 4 staff/unit.)Lower down, the entry for Adjusted man-mths is worked out during 2012 and 2013 for the time that each category of manpower excluding directors worked. For IOsorb plants, that would be from the month preceding first production to allow for training time.Net pay & benefits for staff excluding directors (to reduce higher pay bias) is divided by that man-months figures to give an estimate of average monthly cost per person.Obviously, this is quite a crude calculation, with likely a range of employees from low to quite highly paid staff, though fewer of those. I imagine that IOsorb operators would require a reasonable skill level with pay somewhere in the middle of the range.I am using $60,000/plant and $150,000 for the IOchem factory as monthly labour estimates in my model.Any comments?c

[woodpeckers] 30/5/2014 17:47

By the way, presume you are all au fait with the age old saying " Mighty Stetsons from Micro Caps Grow."

[woodpeckers] 30/5/2014 17:03

Certainly a huge volume went through at the end there but I presume that is all now in the price so hopefully onwards and upwards from Monday.

Have a good weekend all. :-)

[woodpeckers] 30/5/2014 16:56

Typo, can you expand please? The link below has Iofina in the list of additions not deletions or am I misunderstanding it? (see page 7)

www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_May14_MicroPublicList.pdf


EDIT: sorry, I see that this is the micro cap which I presume we have now joined.

Here is the small cap notice for anyone interested.

www.msci.com/.../smallcap/MSCI_May14_SCPublicL

[flyingbull] 30/5/2014 16:51

The June oil stock challenge is still on....deadline for entries is this mid night on Sunday. Good luck. fb

[typo56] 30/5/2014 16:48

IOF closing uncrossing was only 0.68% of market cap. That's smaller than any of the other companies being booted out of the MSCI Small Cap. Others are:

BLVN (1.13%)
DRTY (0.94%)
HILS (0.84%)
LOND (0.92%)