Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[verulamium] 16/4/2014 11:02

35p in 55 days isn't a penny a day. Keep the condiments handy for the hat...

[shonny] 16/4/2014 10:48

To achieve Mr bigs target of £1 by the 10th of June the share price will have to average a 1p per day rise from here. I don't think that's going to happen. He appears to be backtracking now by stating that further drops will be a buying opportunity for him. Typical rampers rhetoric. I see that Lance has had a big clear out of his shares. Doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the future of the Company. Maybe he knows something the rampers don't know.

[titus10] 16/4/2014 10:27

Cyberbub (yesterday - 19044)

Yes, technical indicators are increasingly corroborative of a longer-term trend change at this time. Since you seem able to surmount the silliness so often posted on this thread about charts, may I suggest you also look at the Weekly MACD now, preferably on a long-term log-scaled graph? Ideally the indicator should be comparable in size to the price chart, i.e. of similar height.

The Daily MACD registered a third bullish divergence on 4/4/14. Because such oscillators often act in this way in a down-trend, this is less significant, but in tune.

Fwiw, I have found over many decades of successful investment based mainly on technical analysis that maintaining perspective by switching chart periodicity (as I also trade, from Monthly all the way down to one-minute charts for intraday trading) is a lot more informative than only working with a Daily price chart.

[superg1] 16/4/2014 09:52

'Hit again' is explained by Mr B.

Contrary to the masses belief, MMs will drop the price to get sellers. So many times folk say 'why don't they put the price up to get sellers'. The reverse is true.

It's simple, if a price rises quickly PIs buy in fear of missing out, if prices drop quickly they sell.

PIs are very often the reason for significant price moves, the market knows this.

Big buyers will fish around in the background for available shares and they tend to drop into that 'unknown trade' column. I suspect Mr B probably got all of his that way.

We all hear of the ringing around that goes on when shares are tight and there is a big buyer about. They ring the SB companies too, looking for any loose stock.

So the expectation for results day for many, is that there are buyers, hoping for sellers. So if orders are sat there, the market knows of they drop the price they can fill the orders through the PI sellers.

I have noted on many shares, a poor trading update comes and the price drops. The company has set out exactly what to expect, then results day, 'the market' whacks the price again, and to me it is no surprise re quick bounces.

Putting it on the ridiculous side, and taking it account the business plan and number of plants operating, how many would you want if IOF had an share price of 1p.

That 1p thought process sits at higher levels for many, where they will consider they have got an absolute bargain, just like MR B thinks re his 50/51p purchase, that was his 1p.

This is a business going forward, most I know of can have higher MCs with nothing and going backwards. Such forward moving AIMs are not common. many are trying to make a niche sector that doesn't exist, some like IOF are in a niche sector that is growing. IOF's only disruption to the industry is the forecast lower costs.

[che7win] 16/4/2014 09:48

Nellyb,
One other thought when I'm around,

I feel there are a lot of buyers wanting in, they hope for cheaper prices, sometimes you have to take whats on the table.

I suspect the risk is to the upside on market perceptions now.
For example, what if the results aren't as bad as expected?
What if we produced more last quarter than expected?
What if io2 is over 1mt on its own?
What if we do actually get a water business?
What if we get a JV on water or a selling agreement with a distributer for iodine?
What if we take over an iodine derivatives business?
What if iodine prices actually go up from here? My favourite this last one, it's the opposite of house buyers eager now, but ignoring interest rates going one way from here.

Not saying any of the above will happen, but if an unknown to the upside happens, you won't be able to buy at these prices.

IOF is an industry changing business with a competitive moat, the kind of business I go for, it hasn't caught on by the wider market yet, but I believe it will.

I try to be contrarian, I love buying when others sell, poor sentiment gets me interested.

[che7win] 16/4/2014 09:38

Nellyb,
I am confident this price will provide capital appreciation over the next year, 100% upside or more isn't bad?

The results are largely known, they were flagged last year, the first quarter run rate is also known to be poor, it has been mentioned in the Allenby note for instance. I'm more interested in the outlook.


What isn't priced in is any news to the upside. As I've said before, the market will be more interested in the 6-12 months ahead, I think we should be over 100p by end of summer (or sooner).

When these results come out next week, it's past history, the market will be looking ahead from then, I think this is an opportunity.

As an example, Tesco results were expected to be dire this morning, they were, what happened to the share price? I think you get the picture to my thinking. Markets are always more interested in future prospects and IOF has a stunning future to anyone with patience.

In conclusion, it's mispriced to me, others will catch on.

[phoenixs] 16/4/2014 09:37

superg, It would surprise me if there were to be a drop in sp, unless of course investors are in IOF for the possibility of the water permit. I would have thought that the past months has rid the shareholder base of the "speculator".
The fundamentals of IOF are such that Numis have a 156p price target based on Iodine alone, and that is without any water permit, price rises for Iodine and even the rumoured deals with potential Japanese purchasers of Iodine.

[joestalin] 16/4/2014 09:33

Cyber, ALL chartists are amateurs - a professional would spin a coin rather than waste his time - with the same outcome.

I just got myself another 2k - as my average cost is 68p, this is all a bonus.

[superg1] 16/4/2014 09:25

Alfie

A potential double whammy, as I believe water news is very close. Will we get the permit, or off to a hearing. Certainly it seems many are waiting for a price drop opportunity as I am sure will be fully demonstrated in any drop, but positive water news could 'mess' that up.

[nellyb] 16/4/2014 09:20

che7win, you seem confident that they won't get hit again when results come out next week?

[che7win] 16/4/2014 08:56

I've bought some more too, silly price in the long term.

50% retrace from recent highs is about right for a purchase for me, right on the 18 DMA.

Water news imminent, poor results priced in and should be ignored at this price, interesting time with two new plants and another one next month.

I'll let the market sort itself out, I don't care which direction in the short term, but I would have jumped at these prices a year ago :-)

[alfie4048] 16/4/2014 08:54

Had another 10000 this morning. Can't see a drop coming with next week's results as the worst is already expected and priced in. Just incase though, I have more dry powder waiting.

[spike_1] 16/4/2014 08:46

Oh yes! ;0)

[peterz] 16/4/2014 08:41

Good observation! Spike.

[spike_1] 16/4/2014 08:22

Captain Curt, I suspect that was an observation rather than a question ;0)

[cyberbub] 16/4/2014 08:17

Pompeii - a basher or a day-trader who change their posts to suit their position...

[superg1] 16/4/2014 08:15

Yes Ansana

The business plan is the key but the noise was always expected just timing unknown. Iodine is a product contributing to many new tech ideas, from satellite fuel, batteries, and graphene. In many cases it just happens to be the superior product to get results.

The Japanese were the world number 1 producer and yes some like Toyota have made moves into the US, and Chile (Algorta, some have done the same re lithium and other commodities.

It seems to be a natural consequence that going forward the Japanese will seek out opportunities where they are available, as after 50 years their production rates are going backwards.

[uppompeii] 16/4/2014 08:09

What is someone who is not a genuine holder cyber?

[ansana] 16/4/2014 08:08

CK who knows its a good story though. I am here for the Business plan not the noise.

[cyberbub] 16/4/2014 08:05

Well I am only an amateur chartist, and they can only tell you so much I agree... but I think there is a good chance of bouncing off the 20SMA at 65p as I said last night... let's hope so anyway... good luck all genuine holders... NAI

[che7win] 16/4/2014 08:05

Interesting, MMs marked it up first thing to be met by sells.

I won't be one of the sellers.

[ansana] 16/4/2014 07:58

Thanks for the offer of taking my shares cheaply Mister Big but please forgive me if on this occasion I decline your kind offer. The share can do what it wants short term, I am here for the long term.

[captain_kurt] 16/4/2014 07:56

Is Mister Big saying Iofina are in talks with a number of Japanese companies about a offtake agreement and/or a strategic investment ?

[superg1] 16/4/2014 07:47

Mister B interesting comment about the Japanese, perhaps share prophets guys will now know what 'look further to the right' meant (while taking about a PRG bid).

Yes the Japanese have need to think about the future as their iodine resource has been in decline with demand rising and there are some big names among that lot in the industry, the usual suspects we know of combined are smaller.

Buyers. Yes the good old game of watching us lot sell, and the real money waiting to pick them off. As you are well aware you are not alone.

[cyberbub] 16/4/2014 07:32

Gawd, looks like he has suddenly started crawling all over QFI as well... was he under a rock for the last few months?