Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[dot com] 04/2/2014 10:02

Folks not put off by this feeble tree shake.
Steady buying this morning then a group of AT sells to offset the buys!

[shonny] 04/2/2014 09:59

Todays dive about to commence I see. I wouldn't be closing my shorts just yet.

[beercapafn] 04/2/2014 09:58

Superg1....

"" I've never wavered re the water permit and expect it to be awarded, plus there is also the unknown.""

Is that the know unknown or the more difficult unknown - unknown.

LOL.

[phoenixs] 04/2/2014 09:57

superg,
agree with you on Ennismore. The problem is that some people sell at the worst time due to ever increasing fear and losses only to find that those with deep pockets buy the stock and those with short positions find the stock very easy to buy back.
Ideally, we need an rns on the back of which the shares rise rapidly, but I don't expect it to happen. Unfortunately good news seems to travel slowly whilst the opposite is true for bad news.

[che7win] 04/2/2014 09:56

superg,
I too wish they would hold on, we have nothing but good news to come and I don't understand, talking into account the positives and negatives I see in the business, why we are sitting at this silly price.

We have proven that we can sell raw iodine with the announcement last week.

To me, if we can sell raw iodine, then we can roll out plants quite happily. This was the no1 priority Gary said to me that the company were looking at.

We have 6 plants coming onstream this year, that is a lot of iodine, we have a few mobile units.

The business is turning from a caterpillar into a butterfly, let's hope our competitors allow it to happen.

roundup, a few MM games this morning - I bet one of those MM's has been given an order from Ennis to buy a few 100,000 shares a day at minimal costs.

[worraps] 04/2/2014 09:43

superg

I think IOF are also guilty of self inflicted damage. But, happily, I think we have a much greater chance of recoverability. Chile producers do not have that.

[superg1] 04/2/2014 09:38

CheDifferent reasons, while they have 1.6m left to go, if they hang on a bit, it shouldn't be so easy to close.I've never wavered re the water permit and expect it to be awarded, plus there is also the unknown.As for Chile producers, as H1 unfolds it will be interesting to see the potential self inflicted damage they have caused while chasing the high iodine price. If H1 stays around these prices then the chances of Sirocco returning are very slim.Scm Bullmine I suspect will be losing money now. Algorta made some money but not a lot re suggested production. Those last visible figures were for H1 13 when the price was much healthier, possibly break even or worse for them now.

[roundup] 04/2/2014 09:29

It looks like the MM are trying to do a bit of a tree shake at the moment . Can't be many wanting to donate their shares for the cause.

[che7win] 04/2/2014 09:28

superg,
tick up from me, I agree with you, I think the background of the DOW falling has given them another free ride.

I think this is the darkest time for the company, they have timed it to perfection - unless a bid comes ;-)

[superg1] 04/2/2014 09:21

Personally I wish they would hold for a few more weeks

[che7win] 04/2/2014 09:17

up,
We were all too optimistic when the share was above 200p, I didn't follow my instinct which was that nothing goes smoothly in business and that was a risk.

I underestimated the impact of new management who have let some things slip IMHO.
They slipped up on the plant rollout and the operation of the plants.

Had the company performed as expected, we would never have fallen this far.

I believe that IO#2 was producing 1MT on it's own on 150000 bpd back in April.
It now has 50,000 bbd piped in and I assume at similar ppm levels and yet it and the additional IO#3 we were told were running at 1MT. I think we can extract a lot more from IO#2.

I believe the company need to get better on the operations and I believe that IO#2 could be producing at least over 500 MT on it's own.

I think that management have give themselves much too easy targets, I would like that to change.

Everything talked about last year hasn't just disappeared, the company need to get on top of the operational aspects.
The great thing for me is that I believe management will easily beat forecasts - but they have to address some issues to do so.

PS: I believe the potential of this business is extraordinary, shareholders don't know what they hold here, it is truly exceptional IMHO.

The Numis note and it's errors confirms to me that management needs beefed up but all can be sorted out, I'm confident of that.

[malachey] 04/2/2014 09:05

Correct uppompeii. We thought they had it wrong - but it turns out they had it right. And now I hope they have it right again.

[uppompeii] 04/2/2014 08:55

Thing is though everyone on here was saying Ennis had got it wrong shorting as the share price fell and fell now you're all saying they've got it right by starting to close. Who is to say they aren't still "wrong"?

[malachey] 04/2/2014 08:38

Ennis closing is hugely encouraging news IMO.
If even the biggest IOF shorters of all have decided this is the bottom and elected to call it a day, then that's a clear sign to all the amateur bears out there that it's time to go poke their nose in someone else's picnic basket. If I had ever been out, I'd be getting back in today!

[che7win] 04/2/2014 08:25

rhwillcol,
I'm afraid that it's shareholders that have helped Ennismore.

The company messed up last year, I except that, but the market here was overleveraged and shareholders have taken the share price down to an artificial low.

I don't think we deserve to be at this price, not with 50-100% growth over the next couple of years.

The management need to work on the finer details, but this will happen as will better communications.

P/E of 20 on around 7p EPS which is achievable is 140p, include water at half the applied for rate and for half the year and that's another 20p.

The company is growing, forecast to triple the number of plants this year.

Ennismore were wise to begin shorting over £2, but they have been fortunate enough that the company messed up and then over extended shareholders forced the shares down to this level.

I'm looking for a bounce up to the 110p resistence level from here.

[rhwillcol] 04/2/2014 08:25

Cap'n: unfortunately that's all they could get, at that price. lol

[captain_kurt] 04/2/2014 08:23

Is that trade for 1 share, Ennismore code ? lol

[rhwillcol] 04/2/2014 08:19

I would think that not many sensible people will be selling, now the cat is out of the bag that Ennis are trying to close their rather large short.

[ridicule] 04/2/2014 07:41

killerBudgie Yep they did. They knew the share price had dropped markedly and that they were sitting on big shorter's profits.

[killerbudgie] 03/2/2014 23:43

They started to close on the 31st of January. Did they know something?

[iofra] 03/2/2014 22:20

Might be a few gyrations to get shares freed up.

[rogerbridge] 03/2/2014 21:52

Ennismore closing their short is good news. The professionals are closing their shorts. If the market turns or IOF relese news on IO4 &IO5 this could move quickly upwards

[bobsworth] 03/2/2014 21:22

che7win, beercapafn and The Fat Controller thanks for pointing out my mistake on the number of shares in issue!

With that correction the potential is greater than I thought on water rights.

No wonder the % held by the institutions continues to rise and Ennismore are finally calling it a day on their short position.

[woodpeckers] 03/2/2014 20:44

I was refering to IOF investors, ammons. I'm not saying IOF are blameless, they have played in to Ennismore's hands to a large extent. Hopefully they have learnt lessons from this too.