Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 25/1/2014 13:48

Shroder

The spot price for iodine is a small market so it's not really covered. Like anything else, the bigger the contract orders the better the unit cost will be.

I'm just trying to ascertain the iodine price we talk of is for crystal or prilled, first indications are that the prices we here of are for crystal, but some seem to be discounting that [rice for crystal, thinking it covers prilled iodine.

An important point overall, so work to do.

So far on your point raised the talk is about whether the port strikes migrate to the northern ports. I haven't checked yet re which ports are on strike.

However the ports strike is just another example of the strikes that go on, it's normally mine strikes we hear about, but they don't get so much media attention, as they are localised or company specific.

[worraps] 25/1/2014 13:34

superg......I have been reading through some of your posts, going back a year or so. Hundreds of them, no time to read them all. Now, in the cold light of a 68% drop in the shareprice, and IOF's spectacular loss of credibility, and failure to deliver on their promises, your posts seem almost delusional, I'm sorry to say.

I wish you no malice, or ill intent of any kind......but perhaps it's time you woke up from your rose tinted dream? Because so many of your predictions about IOF have turned out to be just that.....dreams and speculation.

Of course, so much of that over exuberance and unrealistic speculation has been fed by Lance originally, and subsequently new members of the board. Those presentations have been lethal to our beliefs and expectations, and our finances.

We can only hope that things are now at their worst, and from now, 2014 will progress with reality and truthful statements from everyone. Too much to ask?

The Numis debacle seemed to sum up the whole farcical situation this week. I felt almost embarrassed that I was invested in such a mess, like it reflected on me personally, and the decision I made to invest in IOF.

Less rosy dreamlike speculation from you, would be appreciated by me.

And some actual delivery of promises by IOF would also be. These let downs and farces are costing me dear. In more ways than one. Enough is enough.

[shroder] 25/1/2014 13:24

Is it possible to get spot prices for iodine similar to other commodities?

If so, it would be good to see the impact (if any) of the recent port strikes in Chilli.

My thoughts are that it will be limited due to high inventory levels. I don't know this for certain, but I suspect this is one reason why iodine prices remain subdued.

It could also be a contributing factor to the closing of some operation's in Chilli too. The idea that these plants are closing due to overheads alone is not a convincing one imo.

On a separate note, the Argentine Peso took a knock on Friday dropping by 11%.

Argentina's currency, the peso, has seen its sharpest one-day fall since the country's 2002 financial crisis.

The peso fell 11% to stand at an official rate of eight pesos to the dollar. Unofficially, the rate is 13 pesos to the dollar.

[superg1] 25/1/2014 09:03

Cool hand

No of course not.

Both the iodine business and potential water business does not exist and seemingly has never existed on the London stock exchange.

It took me months to understand how it all works.

In particular the potential water side of the business was a tangled web of complication for anyone that tried to get a grip of it. We have watched many posters here struggle with it for months.

The complication of water rights, the Atlantis source, the USFW rights swap
and the water discharge permit.

In that sentence there are 3 separate potential water supply options, none governed or affected by the other.

Hence when it said about warm formation water and direct supply, it created a previously unmentioned 4th dimension to the water business.

Very quickly it was established (which was the most likely event)that the warm formation water comments were incorrect. The analysts has clearly misunderstood what was said and like everyone I have ever seen post here, got it wrong.

I can hear some brains ticking over now re 3 aspects and if they are, then it rather confirms the point of the lack of understanding.

Here are the 3 aspects as I see them and it has always been that way for the last few years.

Aspect 1

Forget Atlantis as if it ever existed.

IOF have applied for a water permit to supply customers they have who want water for industrial use, just like any other applicant in Montana or North Dakota.

Aspect 2

IOF have in place a rights swap deal with the USFW. If I explain why that happened people get confused, so once more ignore Atlantis, for now. From recollection the USFW have around 100,000 acre feet of rights in North Dakota and Montana.

Water rights have a beneficial use grading. All the USFW grades can be upgraded to industrial use. Much of the water currently being supplied is being done so on temporary permits, as a change of use against long standing water law, but they had to do something, otherwise the oil companies would not be able to have done the drilling. It is said to be a temporary measure.

Aspect 3

The discharge permit.

IOF currently have a water discharge permit for 30k bpd which matches the amount they were to put through in Montana for iodine.

Remove water, gas escapes/collected, clean up (nothing much more than salt 5 times less than sea water in it). Dispose into the Fresno/river systems.
Gas goes to the existing gas pipeline, water goes via the existing water pipeline to the fresno/rivers.

A discharge permit, means IOF own the water, and are storing it in the river system, they can take it out downstream, or I would imagine, anyone with their permission could extract an equal amount.

That's my understanding of the water potential, and what each aspect means. No water has to be discharged into the river systems in relation to the rights swap.


The analysts got confused, re the water but it doesn't form any part of their valuation so it's not an issue. There was no need at all for them to get a full understanding of the water. The analyst has confused the issue which to me is highly understandable.

The last nomad (one analysts at least, this isn't a dig) didn't know what Atlantis was, and this was some time down the road after they appeared.

All I'm doing is explaining how I believe the water potential to stack up, there may be errors.

[monty panesar] 25/1/2014 08:43

Can anyone confirm the expected ppm's at IO4 and 5? From recollection IO3 is around 120ppm but the rest going forward should be 150-250ppm?

Am I right to say the ppm's will increase significantly once the mini's are in operation? Don't the v concentrated brines produced at the mini sites then get run through the IO's?

[cool hand kev] 25/1/2014 00:29

My guess is the broker putting out bad news to enable shorters to close BWTFDIK

[bogg1e] 24/1/2014 22:37

That's quite funny :-)

[microcline] 24/1/2014 20:36

Much to your disappointment Shonny the growth projections are just too much to be accommodated in regulation size Speedos.

[shonny] 24/1/2014 18:39

IOFs daily dives must be worthy of an appearance on Splash soon.

[masurenguy] 24/1/2014 16:42

Todays close @82.5p is a 12 month shareprice low. Still looking for an entry point but not tempted yet.

[tsmith2] 24/1/2014 16:26

In a close period? If not the dirs should buy aggressively to send a message out..

[monkeymagic3] 24/1/2014 16:11

2risky - don't even try you peasant.

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 16:03

he was okay, don't gloat... a lot worse than him

[2 risky] 24/1/2014 16:02

Hiya netts


Who hung the monkey eh?

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 15:55

You were okay and took it well, gl bud.

[monkeymagic3] 24/1/2014 15:50

Not alone, just with space.

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 15:43

And yes, I remember you mm3, you left me alone.

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 15:39

Did of job on ea. other

[monkeymagic3] 24/1/2014 15:37

What's been going on here then?

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 15:02

You belong in an ADVFN club were we discuss things rightly or wrongly but respect ea. other in a nice way.

Don't let that spirit die.

[bogg1e] 24/1/2014 14:47

Nice song and vid - reminds me of early fu fighters.

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 14:42

Your flaw was(is?) your equanimity... but it was beautiful

[knackers] 24/1/2014 14:38

Given what has gone before, the new mgt team are hardly likely to provide anything other than conservative projections. They will want to establish some solidity and credibility, so lacking in the past.

[frog1] 24/1/2014 14:32

naphar

Thanks. Putting that into my model and using 750mt gets me much closer to their number (4.4p). However, can't see £1.50 as a target this year on an eps of 4.7p (way too optimistic imo). What is their forecast for 2015?

[naphar] 24/1/2014 14:23

Frog, the original note suggest crystaline iodine will be sold for $38/kg, a discount of 15% to the prilled price of $45/kg, which is what makes the prilling tower economical.

That wil account for some of your gap I suspect, and I for one expected a lower price for crystal vs prill, as prill is "known" to cost more.