Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 12:31

You blow with the wind bob

[bobsworth] 24/1/2014 12:30

Totally agree worraps

[worraps] 24/1/2014 12:26

Well I think sometimes companys should remember that shareholders put their faith, trust and money into that company. And there are times that they should repay that trust and belief, and should certainly rectify any errors that have been portrayed to the market. To not do so represents arrogance and complacency and disrespect to their investors.

A year ago these words are the last thing I would have expected to express about IOF. I really cannot believe what has happened here. This is more than just the farce of AIM.

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 12:26

I've read some funny stuff today (as per norm) across the MB's, that is 2nd atm LOL

[che7win] 24/1/2014 12:25

It appears Numis have an updated note on IOF.

[frog1] 24/1/2014 12:23

N3tleyLucas

You are now ramping the profit/eps relative to the Nomad. Perhaps you could drop them a line to point out their error? :)

[bobsworth] 24/1/2014 12:20

The share prices says it all - self inflicted damage by Numis and Iofina!

[worraps] 24/1/2014 12:05

So, is it being said that Numis are about to issue another note?

[festario] 24/1/2014 12:04

Monts, Frog, Phoenix.
Thank you for your replies, I am mildly reassured, but only mildly at this time.

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 11:56

What I'm saying is you are too bothered about what others say, and not bothered enough about what your company is actually doing.

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 11:53

Stop navel gazing and simply make money. The easy targets of £5m 2013 & £10m 2014 that I gave and was vilified by everyone, especially graham, are not going to be hit. You have missed a year. Get on with it.

[phoenixs] 24/1/2014 11:49

festario, we are certain!

[frog1] 24/1/2014 11:45

Festario

There is a clear error in the Numis note one way or the other. Either the eps for 2014 and 2015 are wrong or the buy rec. is wrong. To me it seems impossible its not the eps as they say $40 m revenue this year. To only make 20% GP with admin costs at $5m is just not sustainable and makes no sense. Also , no one has shown anything wrong with the inputs into my calcs for 7p eps 2014 based on just under Numis's $40m revenue. Thus I cannot reconcile $40m revenue with .2p eps. This is not to say the revenue used by Numis is not optimistic as N3tleyLucas suggests. That's why we need some guidance from the company.

[worraps] 24/1/2014 11:41

We are now below where we were a year ago, when it wasn't even certain the technology worked. As I said last night, you couldn't make this up! We now have 3 plants fully operational, with 3 others (apparently) imminently about to do the same. A total circus with clowns in charge.

[monts12] 24/1/2014 11:41

Festario
how do you propose we find out?
Looking at their GP figures, don't you agree they make no sense?

I have this from someone who's contacted Rupert Krefting at Numis:
"I should say there is the possibility of a note regarding the cost of production."

[festario] 24/1/2014 11:34

Monts, I keep asking this same question with no success. Are we CERTAIN, 100%% CERTAIN that Numis have made these errors, or do we just think and hope so?

[n3tleylucas] 24/1/2014 11:29

Start making money... that would help.

[monts12] 24/1/2014 11:28

Like I posted yesterday, Numis have issued inaccurate information in their note. What can be done now?

[phoenixs] 24/1/2014 11:16

frog1.
I firmly understand that Numis are going to rework their figures due to the horrendous error made by them in respect of cost of sales. This has been pointed out on this board by a few.
The business is sound,in fact I would go further and say the potential is huge. It is only a matter of on the ground delivery. The roll out is later than we expected(by a few months), the management have now ridiculously overcompensated the optimism of last year and Numis have made a serious balls up with their initiation coverage for which we are now paying dearly. The share price reflects both greed and in this instance fear which I believe to be without commercial foundation.
Management have a responsibility to be as accurate as they are able to be with their forecasts, not to hype and not to underplay, so they should in my opinion now tell us what they firmly expect to happen this year both with their plans and their production and sales figures given certain parameters. (ie $45/kilo price of iodine). I

[frog1] 24/1/2014 11:00

If the Numis eps figures are correct, this company is going under imo. They have a $15m loan callable in just over a year and with $6m profit in 2014 and around $12m in 2015 they will get nowhere close to meeting it. Also the .2 eps for 2014 just does not tie in with the statements about the market under estimating cash generation etc. There is a serious mis match between the figures and the narrative, so in my view if the Numis figures are right, their analysts have deliberately tried to mis-lead with the narrative and the buy rating. Either way, their credibility has already been damaged and they should try to repair that by clarifying the disparity.

One problem lies with the management. I disagree about things being OK under previous management (Lance etc.). They created a can of worms with expectations raised to a level that could not be reached. I hope the current lot are bringing some reality to the company, but they need to get a baseline the market can work from. They can do this themselves and cut out the middle man. So IMO the company's executives need to get this under control and as soon as is sensible, perhaps when next plant is commissioned they need to put a statement like:-

Current production is 400 mt which is all used by IOF Chemical.
Production for 2014 is expected to exceed 700 mt.
Our revenue guidance for 2014 is $35m with a profit of over $12m

i.e. at the very low end of expectations that leaves room for NOMAD and other brokers to look for over performance. At the moment this is like a Punch and Judy show, 'Oh yes it is, Oh no it's not' and the management team (previous and current) must take responsibility for that.