Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 14/12/2013 14:05

Jcs

Posted re frog, sounds like Macca, so asked politely that he exchange on that thread re his/her points. If the posts increase then there you go it tells a story.

Macca said he would buy when we each 1.5mt per day I recall. Silly old me thinks he was fibbing.

The best way to deal with threads not of interest is to click on the thread leader, then filter the poster. FJ something like that, left long ago.

You will then see the thread disappears. So all they have to do is put me on filter. :-)

[n3tleylucas] 14/12/2013 14:03

hey potter, liked the rhyme in the last line

[johncsimpson] 14/12/2013 13:52

As an aside, I see frog1 has now started posting there (Iofina Holdings in Company (IOF)) thread, implying he's been 'excluded' here . . . ???

[johncsimpson] 14/12/2013 13:49

johnnybig one of the regular trolls here abouts is still peddling one of his jonny big lies (albeit now slightly modified) on the 'Iofina Holdings in Company (IOF)' thread. I understand the proof will be uploaded over there about 17:00 today.

So peeps, you're all invited so bring a bottle and join the party - 17:00 on the Iofina Holdings in Company (IOF) thread.

[pleco] 14/12/2013 13:47

Sorry, I entered this twice.

[pleco] 14/12/2013 13:47

It appears to me that none of the new negative posters here have met any of the board members or any of the long term supporters of Iofina. I wasn't able to attend the last meeting, but people who have met face to face can have a lot more confidence in each others postings. I may be wrong but I challenge any of the negative posters to prove that they have ever met Superg or any of the posters who are being attacked.

[pcjoe] 14/12/2013 13:04

Said it elsewhere but N3 looks positively benign compared to some of the new trolls emerging - N3 may be ghastly but at least he`s "family" - This new lot are truly Radio Rental - Feeling all Gooey re poor N3 - Is the poor chap just misunderstood - A product of a broken home? - Might just de-filter him for Xmas day......Peace & Goodwill to all.......

[nellyb] 14/12/2013 12:45

superg - you certainly appear to have ruffled a few feathers.

[mach100] 14/12/2013 12:35

Not a holder of IOF myself but jacabite should take attacks from Morriseyme as a compliment. Morriseyme is a shameless ramper who should carry a wealth warning! He ramps every thread. Shameless! Never aplogises for his pump and dump. Disgusting! Was pumping FLX and also PLE on every thread. Now he is trying to deramp it to 10p without a word of apology. As disgusting as he is shameless! The last time he held anything wa sin the toilet and that was quite a small holding too!

Sorry I won't intrude again on this thread. Actually IOF looks interesting as it has slipped from highs. I love the debate on QFI and there is huge debate about which is better. I am interested to see which horse is better to be on.

[che7win] 14/12/2013 11:58

Superg, Common sense post, hope others have held their nerve. Bizarre trading.

[crosseyed] 14/12/2013 11:53

frog1,

Regarding direct sales of crystallised iodine, may I refer you to the 2013 Interims, dated 25 Sept 2013, p4, section on Iofina Chemicals...

"The Group will continue to market its iodine through iodine chemical derivatives at Iofina Chemical. In addition the Group has recently begun marketing its crystallized iodine to new customers as production increases."

For what it's worth, I am in process of developing my own financial model for Iofina. I took that last sentence as indicating that home-produced iodine (mainly from IO#1 and 2 but also 5mT/mth from re-cycled iodine) began to exceed processing capacity for iodine derivatives from September, and that the surplus was being sold in raw form from that month. We also know from that same report that the larger 12" pipeline supply commenced with a capacity of 50,000 bpd or more to IO#2. However, IO#2's capacity is understood to be 30,000 bpd so one would assume that to be fully utilised. I have assumed that to occur from October though it may have commenced earlier. Other reports have indicated increasing iodine concentrations in that supply through better collection points which may well provide up to 300 ppm, equivalent to about 33.5 mT/mth from IO#2. (I have assumed lower rates from additional plants.)

As far as Chemical plant processing capacity is concerned, somebody posted yesterday a figure of 800 mT/yr though I'm working on 600 mT/yr. If self-produced iodine continues to grow at the rates predicted by the model (and I'm assuming a reasonably conservative 6 new plants per year, 2 of which have been clearly RNS'd by IOF as being under construction for quite some time + possibly IO#6 as well), expansion of the derivatives plant to double capacity would seem to be the obvious route. Even if the market price of iodine falls to $40/kg, cash flow should be sufficient to cover the capital costs and repay the Stena loan in full (though in reality I would expect it to be fully converted).

Of course, as I am sure you all will, DYOR.

c

[jackabite] 14/12/2013 11:26

Superpooh!!

you just know i'm not reading all that pish!!

keep on topic!!

Chart looks nasty here, shorters are at work because management were impotent imo and that has provided the the snakes and ladder effect here and it shows no signs of slowing down.

Shame so many bought on your ramp and are now suffering over this festive period.

[superg1] 14/12/2013 11:12

I can't be bothered to read them all jack, probably full of the foul language and threats like you did on GDL to anyone that had a view.

Face it fella the GDL rns that had 100 mill of volume, about an an early q1 result on a test well for a new customer, was impossible to meet, and mentioned in great detail as to why it had to be false.

3 month drill times, and plenty more for dewatering. it was a lie, it had to be, unless they waited 3 months to report the contract, which they didn't.

My point of looking at GDL, was to look at it as an investment as it was highly rated by some respected posters.

I don't jump to conclusions, I research the backside off things, and contacted the company. Plenty took the P about my small print view. They confirmed drill times. I pointed out the potential impossibility of the rns content. The reply on that question centred around not being able to discuss matters not in the public domain???

Not discussing what they had just released??

So I took that further and pointed out that the rns suggested news would come about the test well within weeks, which to me was impossible and I explained why.
I also stated, just about every investor that read the rns read it that way, and if that was not the case they should update the market. The rns proved to be highly price sensitive. A one well contract, creating 100 mill volume, where a 100 well contract weeks before created very little interest at all.

They refused to comment and re-stated drill times, so in other words in my opinion it looked like a blatant lie.

But now with the Chinese state owned companies drilling all over GDG leases. The rns said 'oh great, look the Chinese have upped our resource by proving just how much gas is on our leases, they have been doing so illegally but we'll make them pay for it"

I hope GDG sort it, and hope they win the court case on another matter. I see how 'successful' greka energy was in the US. They broke some records, which was impressive, until you realise it centred around spills and other breaches.

So for me, based on what GDL say, their history, what is going on now, and trying to fight the Chinese in their own country, best of luck.

No sarcasm, I sincerely hope it all flies for GDL investors. I have read the TW GDG details, I also note the rigs off to India re GDL.

So what happened to the one rig a week, ordered and calcs by some of 10 wells per year rig, when they take 3 months to drill ???.

Anyway off topic but if you want to chat GDL I'll pop over to the relevant thread.

Just my opinion, but I think the spin off company will be India and GDL will fold, I haven't read enough recently but did note the India side wasn't looking sweet last time I looked.

I am fully with the bears on that one, sorry, may be wrong, and I don't short.

Plenty here got into GDL on that rise, but after a bit of thinking most got out above 25p so they did very well. I think just scrut stayed, but I think he may be out too, judging by recent posts.

I would never wish a loss on you, and hope it does well, but I am allowed an opinion on it, wrong or right. My opinion won't change the price.

Feel free to come and goad me, take the P or whatever if GDL, does well. I can assure you I will never do that if it folds as that would be a disaster for PI's. While some posters love the thought of others making a loss, thankfully the majority are decent folk that wish good will on others.

The minority always make the loudest noise, it's always been that way.

[frog1] 14/12/2013 11:04

Oh I see, I was regarding the brine end as suppliers, but I see what you mean now.

Thinking further, they would be mad not to sell everything through the chemical division. otherwise they set up potential sales conflicts where there is no need.

[baguette] 14/12/2013 10:59

Frog - I was referring to the "complex" tie in at the plant with the customers control systems for brine water. We have no idea how well that may have gone.

It seems to me they have two lots of customers, the first being at the ground face (lets say partners in output) and then customers of the Chemical division - as all iodine will presumably go to this division until 800mt is reached (assuming the upscale of the chemical plant has gone to plan - again we just dont know).

We will then have to find a third set who we sell any excess product to directly (this may well be the chem divisions sales responsibility)

[frog1] 14/12/2013 10:57

"Looking at this from a detached view point, I would say they need to beef up their Mgmt team and the quality of their advisers. Oh I forgot, we appointed a 62 yr old wizz kid CEO in September!"

If the structure they are pursuing is as I believe, then they have done exactly what I would have. They have a Chemical division that currently is increasing sales and margins. They have been taking resource from outside suppliers. They have a sales force that looks like it can deliver. The piece they are adding is an engineering play at the backend that drops seemlessly in. The only reason a customer would be aware of it is if they wanted to do some due diligence. If something goes wrong in Resources, they source the iodine from outside at a higher price. They loose money but the customer needn't even be aware if their price stays the same. To build that you need an experienced engineer with a record of delivery i.e. to deliver the roll out on time. Someone who can then drive down costs. To build a massive data centre, you don't need a wizz business man or a super software developper, you need a hard nosed technician with an eye for getting efficient processes in place and a pride in reducing costs.

[frog1] 14/12/2013 10:47

Hi Bag

You say:-

"I am itching to know if it is working well not only from the point of view of its concept and engineering but also as it relates to the customer's interface etc. "

So does the resources department have a direct interface to customers or will everything be sent through the Chemical department?

I think if I was organising this, resources would just sit behind (a bit like a data centre) supplying iodine to the chemical division which would then decide how best to maximize returns. A customer need not even know it was there. There would be no sales force in resources, that would be the role of the chemical division. This would mean it just slips into the process in place of existing suppliers. It's role would be to create as much iodine as possible at as low a price i.e. a pure engineering play. Chemicals would be responsible for sales and selling the products at the highest margin. To date all revenue has been shown in chemicals, profit could be allocated across the departments, but internally they would treat resources as a cost centre.

[escapetohome] 14/12/2013 10:38

Thanks for the realism.

Somewhat of a Gamble for the time being then.

Chart looks terrible.

When this bounces expect plenty of back slapping - and told you so comments.

So many PPMs or KG iodine being translated into a PE and a share price - rather simplistic - never took much notice of it, there so many other factors to consider.

Still have a large holding here - but cautiously did not over extend at the top so Im ok for the time being.

[frog1] 14/12/2013 10:34

Just found segment reporting at bottom of the interim report, so all iodine currently goes to chemical and all revenues booked there. Loss reported at the resources is reducing but no revenue booked there so they are using a cost transfer mechanism between chemical and resources. So looks like cost relief passed from chemical to resources either at market price for iodine (what I would expect to understand business better) or they could use the cost of production rate if at the moment they just view resources as a cost centre and they want to show chemical in a better light. Will resources sell excess Iodine themselves or will it always be transferred to chemical that will be solely responsible for sales? Will resources be treated just as a cost centre for chemicals or as a separate business centre. Not too important for investment returns, but it would be useful to know to better understand the financial statements and where costs are.


So does anyone who has been to an investor's presentation know of the plans for the chemical division i.e. is the strategy to focus on Iodine production or to use the iodine produced to increase production of the derivatives? Will the chemical division be expanded?