Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[diggulden] 26/9/2013 16:14

Excellent, cheers Noli.

[garfield31] 26/9/2013 16:10

I do not think Mr Fay was being arrogant just making a fair point.

[king_roster_iii] 26/9/2013 16:04

It was funny yesterday - CF saying " and we only found out about it yesterday" and then silence but the whole audience thinking as one, "we know - Gad found it!"

It was most odd sometimes that feeling that you knew significantly more than they did - thanks to sg, gad and the crew.

More examples of CF's arrogance showed when he repeatedly said looking in SG's general direction, "I don't have time to spend all day looking on the web"

:)

[dnair28] 26/9/2013 16:03

God, don't they bother to check before issuing RNS?

Indirect 76822535 !!!!!!!

Lucky for them at least the total and % are right.

[gadolinium] 26/9/2013 15:44

Post 9198 Super:
Yes, strange that, the award appearing on the web ahead of the patentee being informed by post or e-mail, but obviously not a problem.
I must say I would have thought their patent attorney would have been monitoring the website though.

[the fat controller] 26/9/2013 15:43

Old Mutual not just dipping their toe. They've got nearly £15 million's worth! That shows great faith!
TFC

[n3tleylucas] 26/9/2013 15:43

Maybe why we didn't .... ...

eh graham

[warrensearle] 26/9/2013 15:41

I know what I would do SG.. buy them at any cost

[orslega] 26/9/2013 15:39

Old Mutual adding

[superg1] 26/9/2013 15:35

Under the radar

Well there were enough present yesterday that heard those words. It's been a fine balance of updating the market, but also protecting the business/shareholder value.

Some have thought the under the radar comments are just waffle but the fact is to protect your own business in this sector it is commonplace.

All USGS data on US iodine production has been withheld by US producers for years.

Take note of the last SQM conference call (29th August)-:

In relation to an iodine question

Patricio G. Contesse - Chief Executive Officer and President
Well, as we say that -- as we said in the conference, my statements before that the main situation of volumes has -- coming down because -- affects the supply of the Chilean produce. And exactly why we're going to do that or not is we don't want to make this as public because it will go against us.


In other words what SQM are doing re iodine, is not for public discussion, due to the competition.

While we all desire the full facts to break out and tell us the big story, right now isn't the time too do it.

Chile are in their most demanding period of production re costs, water and power issues and rising capex.

While in that period and still going backwards, IOF has appeared. The timing imo could not be any better, it's a perfect storm for a low capex/opex new entrant to the market.

If you were a business selling a commodity to China as all China could do was import it, no problem. But how would you feel if China suddenly demonstrated a resource find, that in a few years would wipe out the need for imports.

How safe would your business feel, now imagine the Chinese producing your product for 1/2 or 1/3rd of the price you can.


Sirocco have been striving to add 388mt this year, $34m spending this year $15m Q1 2104 for a mill.

Opex in the mid to high 30's.

They have struggled along with that failing ALP.

Then up pops IOF with that potential 1000mt rate to be in the game, in about 14 weeks time.

[diggulden] 26/9/2013 15:34

RNS, OLD Mutual just crossed 6%

[superg1] 26/9/2013 15:03

Good post spike and glad to see the prill point raised. That came from the 'who will you sell to' question.

Previously we have mentioned Jeff when he said there was a market for up to 1600mt for the iodine mud/cake.

Prill is a better product for some uses. However it was stated that prilled iodine is supplied to end users when in fact all they need for end product is iodine cake.

We know iodine has tight supply situations at times, and it seems prill is being bought at higher prices (v crystal) when and end user doesn't need prill, but that is what is available.

So if crystal is made available, why would end users pay higher prices for prilled iodine when they don't need it.


I think CF covered a contract question too, and he said that most contracts held by the big players are short so that is not a barrier.

LB talked opex with some Chile operators on $40 kg costs and specifically SCM Bullmine on $50.

We know the ioditech report mentioned that some smaller Chile mines were on break even.

He also mentioned that SQM would want no lower than $40 per kg.

If you do the maths, the smaller high opex mines would be finished. The opex is bad and it will rise imo as the Chile gov talk of 2014 being a worsening situation for power and water.

The capex needed for those mines to expand and get seawater, is a bridge too far to make it a profitable business.

It's no secret that I think SCM Bullmine and Sirocco at least, will close.

If you take the 5 year view on current growth (4%) and some dropping out of the business (2000mt) it would mean around an 8000mt gap in the market.


Gad

Re the patent rns etc. As stated, your post was the first time anyone knew it had been awarded.

The patent office hadn't officially notified IOF. The cheque is now in the post.

[n3tleylucas] 26/9/2013 14:12

ammons 26 Sep'13 - 14:05 - 9195 of 9196 0 0 (Filtered)

[warrensearle] 26/9/2013 14:10

I don't filter anyone and I have not asked him to stop posting. his posts amuse me also

[ammons] 26/9/2013 14:05

Scrut, keep posting. Warren, use the filter button.

[madchick] 26/9/2013 14:03

Great post Spike/Mike - thanks!

[hew] 26/9/2013 13:51

Scrutable, always happy to read your posts. Like others perhaps, I may not always agree, but that's not a problem!

[dorset64] 26/9/2013 13:48

Cheers Mike, a good read.

[the librarian] 26/9/2013 13:46

Thanks Mike, I suspect that CF is relieved that he can step into the background too. Interesting that some have no option to but to buy prill when they don't actually need it in that form, makes sense what IOF say regarding no problem selling the flake now.

[warrensearle] 26/9/2013 13:36

For those dubious of the idea an institution can lump on a short just by looking at a chart and surmising its gone up too quickly take a look of the top AIM performers of last year

hxxp://moneyweek.com/penny-sleuth-the-biggest-aim-winners-of-2012-62021/

Taking just a few of these looking at the price in jan this year compared to now

Scancell - 50ish down to 40 Ish
Magnolium - 3.5 Ish down to 3 Ish
Wafm - 60 Ish down to 26 ish
Bango - 180 Ish down to 164 Ish
IOF - 100 Ish up to 185

In general it works - then you get the odd AIM exception like IOF who actually continue to deliver on potential

[spike_1] 26/9/2013 13:19

In no particular order from presentation and one on one chats:


Re: CF, he said following the new appointments he will be stepping into the background, and then said "I'm sure you all will be relieved to hear, I certainly am".

I wouldn't underestimate the positive impact that CF has: his blue chip background will make his words far more believable to II's (IMO) than those of yet another AIM management team selling something 'too good to be true'.

Lance was quite specific about the Enismore short, he believes they just looked at the graph and the visible progress and thought: 'too good to be true'.

Visiting Chile: SQM in 'almost weekly' contact with Lance, asking how he was etc. He described how on earlier visits - as a customer - he had picked up a number of very useful ideas and info. He says the reason they still go there is 'to keep in touch as a producer' and seemed not to think this unusual in the circumstances.

My guess - and it is only a guess - is that come crunch time for the costly producers, SQM may well think they both can create a strategy for co-operative survival (cartel?).

I believe the whole topic of how and to whom they would sell surplus product, was intentionally left as vague as possible - after all this is exactly the sort of information useful to the enemy. CF talked of IO.2 as being 'a money machine'. I'm utterly convinced that the '700-1,000' when CF said they had to be conservative, was actually very conservative.

CF pointed out that regardless of the price US customers were paying to get Iodine, they were 85% of the time paying an additional (15%?) for product they didn't need because it was unnecessarily pure. From this I assume all product arrives into the US is in Prill form, which is only needed for 15% of derivative production.

Re 'skids', as I understand it the mobiles are made up of two units, essentially the same size as a standard sized shipping container, i.e. don't have their own wheels. I am reasonably certain CF did say they would be counted as IO.* plants. Given that they have sources 'well over 2,000ppm', there is no reason not to assume they will be any less profitable than the normal IO plants.

Re take over price being £6, CF almost under his breath (I was sitting almost in front of him) 'it would be double figures'.

There were constant mentions during the presentation of keeping costs down: 'we can buy our chemicals cheaper in bulk orders when we have more plants'.

I said to Lance ' hope you didn't all travel over in the same plane'. He replied 'no we learned that lesson with the ash cloud when we were stuck here for three and a half weeks'. Not sure he got where I was going with that one. Lance added that they travelled over economy which shook me. They really don't need to do that in my view!
It was good to meet up again with old friends and new.

That's all for now

Best wishes - Mike

[boo 2 goose] 26/9/2013 13:18

Any opinions on the Royal Mail floatation?

[n3tleylucas] 26/9/2013 13:08

One of you is from Yeovil or both? Anyway ... you used to be a double-act? Where's t'other un?

Where was I? ... Oh yeah, SCRUT. You think he's not helping? Oh come on, we're all in this for ourselves let's not be so naive to think otherwise.

And we'll beat you down at Huishhhhh lol (2-0)



You just hate him, I don't ...