Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[tim3416] 28/9/2013 15:32

Do you think that will affect the share price Monday morning?

[orslega] 28/9/2013 15:24

as mentioned by madchick on LSE, a few chunky buys being late reported...someone was keen to get in paying 189p for 50,000 shares when the offer was 178p...

[naphar] 28/9/2013 14:42

Bobsworth,
When they state production numbers, that is from plants only. It does not include recycling, hitch is part of the chemical division.
That was asked and answered some time ago.
Hope that helps.

[n3tleylucas] 28/9/2013 14:12

Confusticate and bebother these bumpkins!

[urbanyeti] 28/9/2013 13:45

Bobsworth, I recall the same question about whether recycling was included being asked after the operational update in early August & think the conclusion reached was that it is but please go back & check. At the presentation Lance described recycling as "feast or famine" rather than a steady source of production so how much it featured in H1 is pure guesswork, but he did give the opex for recycling as around $31/kg so a decent profit margin.

[bobsworth] 28/9/2013 13:18

Interim Results stated:

"While a total of 62.5 metric tonnes (mt) of crystalized iodine was produced in H1 2013, the Board now expects that once IO#3, IO#4, IO#5 and IO#6 are fully operational the run rate should be c.700-c.1,000 mt per year which would already make Iofina one of the largest iodine producers in the North America."

Question: Does anyone know if this 62.5 metric tonnes (mt) included re-cycled iodine?

Only ask because some key posters were predicting up to 60 mt for re-cycled iodine alone!

[n3tleylucas] 28/9/2013 11:49

Yes, but h1 2012 was poor, if you take 2011 instead, you have 20% growth over 2 years.

That isn't great, and you have poor capacity so will have to sell to competitors.

This will soften prices.

And don't think all these towering estimates will be hit.

[n3tleylucas] 28/9/2013 10:28

Who's Simon?

I've seen that "Watch this space" on here before.

Anger Taxes Son?

Hey graham? wtf is going on here?

[jagsta386] 28/9/2013 10:00

If io2 is hooked up at 50kbpd, then superg reckons this could be a monster of upto 700mt. So any calculations on what 3,4,5,6 could be. And what the approx( not exit rate of 2013) but surely Q1 of 2014 would look like. Those numbers given in the RNS look very modest. ???

[dorset64] 28/9/2013 09:20

The article that Dig posted a link to:

hxxp://share-knowledge.org.uk/2013/09/27/iofina-on-the-rise/


I suggested in my article on 6th September that Iofina was due a re-rating between then and the year end. The share price remained in a tight trading range at around 150p right up to the results announcement on 25th September before breaking out of that range in style. At close of trading on results' day the shares were around 185p for a 30% rise. Two questions spring to mind:

- Was this rise justified?

- Is there more to come?

To answer these questions, let's look at some numbers...

Group revenue for H1 2012 was up 51% on the same period last year ($11,556,468 v $7,667,162) while like-for-like losses reduced from $969,935 to $124,410. These were nice headline numbers and provide for the prospect of maiden profitability over the full year. However, the real Iofina story (and therefore, the real value) lies in the rapid growth prospects afforded by their iodine production model. It was confirmed that the company expected their IOsorb extraction plants to be delivering an annualised rate of 700-1000mt of iodine by the end of this year, including a reiteration that IO3-6 were on track to be completed by year end. Indeed, IO3 is awaiting electrical hook up before commissioning can take place (expected by the end of this month).

At the investor presentation on Wednesday afternoon, shareholders expressed the view that with 6 IOsorb plants up and running by year end, 700-1000mt seemed lower than expected. Two things became clear from the company's response. Firstly, they are determined to deliver on these numbers – as a minimum. IO1 and IO2 are already producing (IO2 brine input has risen from 18k bpd in June/July to around 50k bpd). IO3-6 will all have different bpd and ppm and at the year end, it is unlikely they will all be operating at full capacity. Secondly, the company continue to be cautious about alerting the competition of their full potential.

So what can we extract from these numbers? Opex is probably the lowest of any iodine producer in the world ($10-20 per kg) thanks to the company's patented technology and win-win agreements with oil producers. Global iodine prices seem to have stabilised around $50-55 per kg before any value is added by Iofina's chemical division. In round numbers, that should mean at least $30m gross profit from iodine production alone in 2014 – as a minimum. Six further plants are due to be added in 2014, so the actual production numbers for the whole of 2014 should comfortably exceed the 700-1000mt commitment made in the interim results. Even on these committed numbers the revenue growth will be impressive but these figures could easily double or more as IO3-6 ramp up to full speed and IO7-12 come online during the year.

Add in the value-add provided by Iofina Chemicals, mobile IOsorb units to be rolled out in 2014 and the prospect of water revenue and the growth over the next 12-18 months could be quite staggering. But I believe the company are right to be taking things one step at a time and managing market expectations with a degree of caution.

The new CEO, George Lantz, is an engineer by profession and focused on ensuring an effective roll out of the company's iodine extraction plants. This is not without its challenges. With near full employment in Oklahoma (the location of IO2-7), finding plant operators can be difficult but the company have come up with an innovative and elegant solution by employing chemical engineering graduates from the local university. As we have seen with IO2, it can take longer than expected for a plant to ramp up to full speed. Build times can slip for new plants. Extreme weather can pose problems. My sense is that George is a solid and safe pair of hands to deliver on these roll out plans.

Was a 30% plus rise on results' day justified? I believe it was and a further rise to around the £2 mark would also be justified based on the current state of play.

Is there more to come? I believe there is a high probability of significant further share price growth but not until further milestones are passed. This said, there are many potential milestones over the next 12-18 months, each of which could add significant value.

As one bulletin board poster proclaimed this week, "the future is bright, the future is purple".

Watch this space!

[bobsworth] 28/9/2013 07:52

dig cheers for the article.

[n3tleylucas] 28/9/2013 03:03

Hmmm ... and you think I'M the nutter jase?

[jasones52] 28/9/2013 01:30

Ah, ramu kumar, dear old palindrome...

There's something about your phraseology, your writing style, its pedantic correctness...

Since your debut in Feb 2010, the vast majority of your posts are re. IOF...
The only other in the last few weeks is re. FUM, when you said: "My choice would be Scrutable for product research..."


and there's this recent one, of course...

Iofina - IOF
ramu kumar - 27 Sep 2013 - 10:59:48 - 9267 of 9285
"Just had a quick look at the graph - need some FUM products to keep it up!"



Do please forgive me if I'm wrong... what do I know?... but there again...

...What do YOU think, Netters? :-))

[jbe81] 27/9/2013 23:00

sg current suppressed share price is due to a consistent seller of 200k shares, they cant have many left, next rns, should be this week should be interesting, as will q3cfigures, some good posts on the aaz board

[superg1] 27/9/2013 22:28

jb

AAZ has had a very limited range for some time, and seems very much ignored by the masses. If they deliver on their ambition over the next year, then yes it should move, but I have yet to look at the basics I use to determine likely prices.

What I do like is the ease of working out potential revenue.

Some shares I wonder how the H they maintain their MC with no revenue at all, and no way of seriously determining how they can make the returns the price represents.

Others are way under-priced, and it leaves one head scratching as to why it is the case. The common denominator seems to be then being quiet shares, once they get 'noisy' on the over-priced/under-priced radar all hell breaks loose.

So the trick on the AIM is to find those share, do your research and then, 'stick or twist'.

[jbe81] 27/9/2013 20:31

scrutable I know you previously were invested in aaz and what you think. But the post was addressed to super g(by the way autocorrect keeps changing it to superb!). If you had bought in at 15p and sold at over 70 you would have no complaints about aaz. IMO right now is the time to make such gain. Was only drawing super g attention to a rns. Anyone who wants to can do their own research.

[peartreegardens] 27/9/2013 19:21

interesting article re helium in today's Economist:

www.economist.com/.../21586840-americas-dominance-global-helium- market-ending-inflation-warning

[warrensearle] 27/9/2013 19:18

Yup and that's the point isn't it to find sustainable growth shares not flavour of the months I will be invested for at least the next 30 years and I want to limit over trading my jumping in and out of different shares as it's the costs that kill you long term My post of last years aim top performers illustrates this lots of flavour of the months that have gone on to pull back Iof being one of few exceptions

[superg1] 27/9/2013 19:00

I hope all do well in all shares, but we all have opinions.

I am aware that perhaps I am rather too thorough on my investment choices and thus may miss some momentum shares in the stampede. However I try to pick shares with a decent amount of back up, that can hold their price long term, and hold the price through delivery.

An rns with apparent lies in it isn't a great starting point for me.

I have one or two right now with the digging going on, most normally just buy then just throw the good news out there. I wouldn't tip anything seriously unless I had some confidence in it. If it looks like an under-valued punt to me I call it that.

One we are looking at is quite well known, another looks completely off the radar but it's assets far exceed it's MC and with good prospects but in a high risk area.

No doubt there are many dozens out there but if you don't like something about a share or it's company, move on, there are plenty more multiple return companies out there. Just look at ATUK, a stunning move, I'm not quite sure how they can cover the price as it's hard to map out potential revenues, but hey ho it went up, has done a bit of jumping around and the majority have made money on it.

There is a big difference between a punt and a solid investment and that's the amount you are prepared to risk. 10% on one can give the same returns as a 5 bagger punt.

One I'm looking at has gone up 50% in the last few weeks, some may consider watching and checking means an opportunity missed, but 50% of a £500 punt isn't much, neither is 5 bagging at that level.

Best to do what the insti's do, get your research then invest heavily if appropriate.

Far too many imo just chase shares, and prices thinking they will miss out. That normally means they mess up. Swim the other way, most seem to buy at the top then sell on the fall. ??

Find the nuggets, do some research, then park with intent, or drive on. There are plenty to go round.

I've only seriously invested in a few and they have given great returns. Had I been the shorting type, I would have made a packet on AVN at £7 plus.

My opinion of course.

I haven't missed out on GDL 100% or if it goes 500% as personally I wouldn't have the courage to invest heavily into it. If some do and make a packet then good for them, and I wish them good fortune.

[neddo] 27/9/2013 18:14

dig
a nice read.

[warrensearle] 27/9/2013 18:02

A well reasoned post SG and glad scruts is obeying his constant rapping on the knuckles of ramping GDL on the main thread - I guess when you are over leveraged you need to encourage other people go pile in to support the price

[superg1] 27/9/2013 17:36

Scrut

I ignored the first dig but won't on the 2nd.

I sent you a private email suggesting you get out of GDL above 25p on the last rise, with good reason. You didn't make that trade and ended up with 100's of 1000's of covered on the lows and getting closed out on other positions on margin calls.

I have watched GDL in recent weeks, it has lacked visible volumes and it seems maybe an insti is building.

That is brilliant for the PI's that got in on the highs and I hope it keeps going.

However the loss news is looming and we know the market can use that to shift prices all over the place depending on whether they have a demand or supply.

We all have our own fave shares, I haven't made too much of a song and dance of my pick out of the blue, which was ATUK. I won't comment on what I think re it's current price I tend to steer clear of engaging on other shares nowadays

So had you bought that at around 8p when I tipped it, you would now have an 6 times your position.

Best of luck with GDL but please don't try to make me look like a fool when it was you that held and was sitting on a knife edge on lows and couldn't sell, meanwhile just about every IOF guy I know that got into GDL, got out above the 25p mark last time around.

If they took your advice this time, then it has turned out well for them. The GDL thread is still waiting for that early first quarter well result. As I say I hope it makes fortunes for all.

You know I look at the team of any set up and in truth I was totally unimpressed with Greka energy and the events surrounding them.

Just read this and environmental compliance issues here -:



You know China will try to copy their tech and the CEO admitted they have tried already. The Chinese are renowned for screwing people over on IP, or generally just screwing business over.

I was tracking one in recent times with a brilliant idea, they took a big order from China, supplied the goods, and the cheque never arrived. The company went bust, and I bet the brilliant tech is in full use in China.

Anyway enough said, I hope it all works out for GDL, and I'm really glad to see the share price has recovered.

As for other shares not mentioned which close friends pushed my way, one has near tripled and the other went up 50%, we haven't missed out, by staying away from GDL.

However, great call, but try not to get trapped again.

[diggulden] 27/9/2013 17:25

Superb new write up on the share knowledge website.

[scrutable] 27/9/2013 16:49

jbe

I was a shareholder and long term advocate for AAZ two years ago. It was then and probably still is apparently the cheapest share on the LSE based on a very low PE, and low business risk.

And it still is.

I have not for one moment regretted my sell out to reinvest elsewhere. The cash fiow is high, the management is sound, the efforts to maintain production praiseworthy but not achieving any growth.

The price is down on two years ago and is unlikely to do more than hunt between the upper and lower limits of a sideways track - and even then, to to follow the next upside oscillation it will need a strong recovery in the gold price. My stockbroker close friend always rejected arguments pro AAZ by saying "yes but, it's in Azerbaijan" - well known for the widespread corruption under the continuing Communist leadership of the Aliyev family