Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[orslega] 26/9/2013 01:24

good presentation, well worth the 500 mile train journey...but 260 posts later!lol Shame I also had to be elsewhere as it would have been good to put a few faces to names....anyway, the 2 hr session gave a good sense of what the BOD have planned. We are in good and experienced hands I believe.

Key points have already been fed back here...focus is clearly the roll out.....but expecting an RNS at 7am confirming Patent award for mobile units - CF told us that we find out this sort of info before Iofina are aware!lol

Just for completeness, I raised the point on the possibility of any additional financing to fund rapid expansion plans - CF confirmed (although I had not seen it categorically RSN'd re 2014 planned plant spend) that future plant builds will be financed from increased revenues, and soft finance if needed....no major funding is envisaged....

Night all, good day in the office today!lol

[scrutable] 26/9/2013 01:12

one madman out of six wins at Russian Roulette. The others never knew that they had lost. RIP
................................................................................
I made over 2000% last year from £20k; took £100k out, lost most of the rest. Kept hold of enough to fund my resurrection. This time I will take twice as much out before the Summer's breezes crumple my wallet.

Seriously regular profit is repeatable until you meet a Black Swan (eg 9/11) but you have to have learned two key lessons the hard way:

1) to avoid at least the 2000+ shares which have little or no Revenues, or inadequate growth many of them projecting good stories but necessarily have an unacceptable risk /reward ratio

2) only Buy as near the bottom of the year as is possible

and one or two other disciplines which are not for general dissemination

[the librarian] 26/9/2013 00:39

Fair do's Scrutable, you have courage and belief in your methods... well done on the bounce back and the health warning to others.

[n3tleylucas] 26/9/2013 00:37

SCRUTABLE is one of the most extreme risk/reward traders I've ever seen. His tactics should really be applied to moderate ft100 swingers. To do it on the most volatile smaller caps is pure madness ... akin to loading the chamber with 5 bullets.

lol, you'll be doing well if you hit £5m 2014, £10m 2015 & £15m 2016.

I don't for one minute expect the roll-out timescales & yields to be anywhere near your estimates. We'll see though. You had a good day, well done. The battle is far from over.

[festario] 26/9/2013 00:36

SCRUTABLE, an interesting analogy that three bear raids confiscated your shares.

I suppose we ask for it, seeing as we keep eating their porridge!

[scrutable] 26/9/2013 00:34

netley your post is a reasonable one for a change and not deliberately provocative.

Of course we differ.

My spread sheet tells me we will have 2275mT in the bag by end Dec if the schedule of six installations is maintained and IO#9/10 are already commissioned as the year ends (but will have contributed nothing to 2014).

I am counting IO#1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8 as contributing material quantities to 2014 and $40/kg as the gross margin that's $91m = £54m, 116% - 170% higher than your figures.

This is not a subject for argument just a statement of confident belief. If I am still alive we shall no doubt see who was right.

[warmsun] 26/9/2013 00:28

I wasn't suggesting you were a hypocrite. I was simply trying to gain a full understanding of your postings and your logic.
Thank you.
Well done on GDL by the way. Oh, and I do think clearly...very clearly.

[scrutable] 26/9/2013 00:18

warmsun
You are not thinking clearly.
Do you really believe from what I post that I am such a hypocrite?

I work on a x4 times gearing. A fall of 25% wipes out any unprotected position. That is not a willing sell. More of a confiscation.

The only defence is to have a balanced portfolio such that IOF reflects less than 25% of the value but even that was not sufficient Last Summer when there were three consecutive Bear raids. I lost 90%.

The upside is that with such leverage, and thanks to a large position in GDL I have recovered 200% on my GDL in a fortnight and used it to buy back in rapidly to IOF this week before it began its rapid climb today.

I posted enthusiastically about GDL a month or two ago where I am x5 times leveraged and when the price was 12p. This week it climbed to 22p yielding (10p x5) =50p on each 12p held x 140,000. So I am quickly back in the game.

DON'T try this game unless you are VERY experienced!

[n3tleylucas] 26/9/2013 00:08

I don't know SCRUT, but if you keep doing it ADVFN will interpret it as spam and could ban you instantly. Log out, and try again later.

[n3tleylucas] 26/9/2013 00:05

The fact you are moving towards profitability is not being questioned.

The current market value demands you make £20m to £25m in FY 2014.

That's not going to happen.

[scrutable] 25/9/2013 23:58

If you take today's financial results it is quickly apparent that the increase in sales has produced a contributing margin of 85.3% which almost extinguishes last years loss.

This demonstrates how extremely profitable the business is after overhead recovery: after capex on plant, patents, installations, management salaries etc.

This points to quite exceptional contribution from IO#3/4/5/6/etc as they are each commissioned.

I asked CF whether there was any obvious omission from the srtucture of marginal costs. He smiled as he answered "No there is not"

[scrutable] 25/9/2013 23:58

please help. What am I doing inadvertently to cause this?

[warmsun] 25/9/2013 23:55

Scrut,
My very sincerest apologies if I have got this wrong, but did you not intimate recently that you had sold some IOF...? If so, whilst I, to a large degree, agree with your 'arguement' not to sell ( as you can't invest in anything better) .....why did you sell? If I have got the wrong end of the stick, I do apologise.

[n3tleylucas] 25/9/2013 23:43

Okay SCRUT, we get the message.

[scrutable] 25/9/2013 23:35

I again took up the theme with CF and the new CEO that the best defence against thoughts of cupidity/sell out by the likes of Geof Ploen (who didn't come this time) was the argument that whatever the price achieved for the shares from a determined acquirer, the whole idea of taking the money made no sense with such a special business...There is simply no chance that the proceeds could be reinvested elsewhere for such a continuing high return and with so little continuing risk.

I believe that this argument works and I hope that B/B readers will take it up in their own way until it becomes the conventional wisdom and overcomes the current widespread defeatism re imminent, inevitable, successful offers for the company.

It does not have to happen. Just don't ever sell.

You have to believe not only in £3.50 by the Spring and £7.50 by Autumn 2014 but in the realism behind expectations of £50/share in five years time and much much more when IOF achieves world stature as an iodine specialist producing and marketing all the derivatives possible.

The cash flow from 2014 onwards will be staggering and available to load the boot on the other foot and for IOF itself to launch judicious takeovers. That could easily make the company quickly too big to digest.

To show the way I drew several board members attention today.....and they showed considerable interest...in a possibly suitable target, based in the US a third of the current IOF size, which is growing even faster than IOF. It is in the closely related business of cleaning and refreshing produced water and oil industry heavily polluted water - returning it for recycling at any level of 'polishing' from 10ppm to 2/ppm of hydrocarbons. It already has contracts with supermajors in oil fields and refineries, general industry all over the world eg Saudi Arabia, India, USA etc. The two company's strengths would be complimentary ie synergetic and together would increase the defence against predators

[scrutable] 25/9/2013 23:35

Why am I so frequently duplicating my posts? Apologies to all

[festario] 25/9/2013 23:31

Thanks to everyone who has posted snippets from the presentation.
Are the IOF team in Leeds tomorrow? I am tempted to drive over, is there any requirement for a reservation of some sort?

Monts12, the excellent way you articulate the little asides and inflections made the whole thing come to life for me. An excellent account.

So, from being £45k underwater this morning, I am approx £12k in front this evening, that is what I call a good day. I could not believe that I had the chance to buy again at 155p at approx 9am.
On top of all that, my GVC dividend was announced yet again. We live for days like this don't we?

[madchick] 25/9/2013 23:16

Thanks to everyone for the feedback, monts in particular with such a great long post and retiree for doing a quick q and a session here! But thanks to everyone, all info is so much appreciated!

[diggulden] 25/9/2013 23:08

Nev, looks like a worked trade throughout the day, I wouldn't be surprised to see that it was part of the Ennismore short position closing to be honest, we will know tomorrow at 6pm when it updates.

[hew] 25/9/2013 23:03

A few more bits from the show:

He gave no numbers but it was George Lantz himself who revealed he had been a shareholder from way back. (Perhaps points to a long term connection - a small world.)

Helium was raised as a question but CF made clear it was not of any current interest or involvement.

I twice questioned CF re marketing the raw iodine, given today's Report reference to it now being in excess of Chem Divs needs. He agreed it was now an important task and said they had good contacts with users like Dow and there was a firm US demand. He was not forthcoming on specific approaches - I wouldn't expect names! - but indicated Lance was involved. I spoke with Lance afterwards and then felt it would be handled ok.

[n3tleylucas] 25/9/2013 23:03

Did anyone ask what the company's view of FC's 2013 & 2014 earnings ests?

Anyway monts, they may have laughed at you, but you asked a good question, well done.

You can ask them about a Shareholder Rights Plan next time monts.

[nevmyers] 25/9/2013 23:02

Was this a buy or a sell any idea ?

17:04:56 25-Sep-2013 161.14 125,000 201,430.25 Ordinary trade


GLA

[scrutable] 25/9/2013 23:02

This is an interesting snippet implying imaginative management.

CF said something like " not many people here recognise how big a boom there is in the US right now. Particularly in Oklahoma. It is very difficult to recruit plant operators and more so to find those who will stay"

The problem has been solved quite neatly. The local university has plenty of chemical engineering students to whom they have offered training jobs via plant operation. This builds local loyalties and ties and there is a significant contribution in original thinking/ideas re new products, added values,and production improvements. Win, win.

[jasisdad] 25/9/2013 22:55

Guys biggest think I took from today (Retiree I have worked out from your posts that I was sitting behind you!) was what LB said about take overs and that historically 100% of iodine producers have been taken over as soon as they have hit 1000 MT or before. Therefore the under the radar thoughts were totally true. My biggest concerns with this company have been that they were over leveraged from a cash point of view but explains why it seemed at times that they were trying to run before they could walk with building more and more plants before the cash was rolling in. Presume Thought process was - if we are going to be taken over when it is found out we are up to 1000 let's make sure by the time the competitors get the ball rolling on an acquisition we will be heading towards 1600mt plus. Sorry I couldn't stay around to say hi to some of you guys but had to run to a meeting afterwards.