Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[freshvoice] 19/9/2013 22:19

I now understand the comments that 'Lance' is back.

[superg1] 19/9/2013 22:17

Just a point following on from what Supreme Mo spotted-

Mr Lantz was also responsible for financial controls, business development, and managed the build-out of the Group's IO#3, and the on-going construction of IO#4, IO#5, and IO#6, iodine extraction plants based on Iofina's WET(R) IOsorb(TM) technology

'and ongoing construction of io4 to 6'

Well they normally take about 3 months to build and from that comment it seems the build has started on all of them including 5 and 6, so with Oct, Nov and Dec to come, it all looks on track to me.

It also looks very muck like the new CEO and has been steering the ship for a while. Something that had been hinted at by a few.

[superg1] 19/9/2013 22:03

Cyprus was it a tough day at the office?

'Prior to the interims being released, I would hope that a new CEO will be appointed'

Just got that today.

On other bits-:

If the company can confirm that brine input to the IO2 iodine extraction plant have improved'

GMP in their note say it has been running at 80% which would be 24k bpd, the last we had was 18.7k bpd.

Indicators that the rest of the builds are going well. The wording spotted by Supreme does suggest io3 is built and we will see what is said next week.

Water permit.

The first part is application correct, which then more or less guarantees the move to determination to grant rights. On the first part time to 'keep em peeled'

[sandbag] 19/9/2013 21:49

Monty,

Agree totally. Rickmay (PITA) filtered and the term "£2" banished.

[rogerbridge] 19/9/2013 21:47

Agree with you 100% Monty. The important thing is that the CEO is experienced and proven in this industry.
I am not expecting fireworks on the finance front, but good progress.

Like most long term investors, my main interest will be on the current daily rate from IO2 & IO1 plus expectations for IO3.Also progress on the roll out of IO4,4 &6.

We may have shorters who have not closed their positions try to rubbish the financials and drive the price down as a last attempt to benefit, but as investors will be more interested in IO3 and beyond, I do not think it will wash.I am expecting positive news on IO3 and a significant re-rating.

[monty panesar] 19/9/2013 21:41

Short term traders like rickmay not appreciated here. Best they focus on speculative boom/bust oil exploration companies.

[rickmay] 19/9/2013 21:36

Starting to Break out of the £1.50 resistance level chart starting to trend higher.Could the shares be in line for a RE-RATING? £2 VERY SOON.

[cyprussteve] 19/9/2013 21:31

Old article, but reminder of potential rerating here .
share-knowledge.org.uk
Iofina (IOF) have announced to the market that their interim results will be released on 25th September. More interestingly, in the same announcement they also advised that there will be a presentation to private investors on the same day. This is excellent news and I would also expect that while the board are in the UK during that week, they will also be making presentations to institutional investors.
So after a summer with the share price stuck in a tight trading range around 150p (following a decline from its year high of 250p), can shareholders now expect a re-rating between now and the year end? There are a number of potential events that suggest this could be the case.
Prior to the interims being released, I would hope that a new CEO will be appointed. This would mean that investors will have the opportunity to meet the new CEO and CFO at the investor presentations. Moreover, it will provide the company with the full-time leadership that has been lacking since the previous CEO had to resign his position on health grounds.
The interim financial results are unlikely to be spectacular, although I anticipate that the company will be close to maiden profitability. If the company can confirm that brine input to the IO2 iodine extraction plant have improved, this will have a positive impact. If they can also confirm that IO3 has been commissioned and IO4 is on track to be commissioned around a month later, this will also provide an opportunity for upward re-rating. And of course, I would also expect confirmation that IO5 and IO6 will be completed before the end of the year.
Whatever the status that is provided in relation to IO2-IO6, investors should be able to calculate the likely iodine production rate as at the year end and therefore, firm up on revenue estimates for the first half of 2014. Similarly, the guidance provided in the interim report and subsequent presentations should also enable solid revenue estimates to be calculated for the full financial year ending 31st December 2013.
I anticipate that these numbers will justify a higher market capitalisation than the £190m currently attributed to the company. Rather than speculate at this juncture, I will revisit my fair value calculation once I have seen the interim numbers and forward guidance provided by the company.
In addition to the core iodine business, there are other factors that could provide further upside potential. There is the water permit application (the first of several) currently being processed and a positive update to this application could come any day now. There is also the possibility of progress on Iofina's oil or helium assets. There has been significant activity recently in land that is in the proximity of Iofina's assets and I would not rule out a farm-out licensing deal on either oil and/or helium before the end of the year.
I have been concerned for a few months now that Iofina are vulnerable to a takeover approach with the share price at current levels. Hopefully, the above factors will lead to a re-rating of the share price between now and the end of the year that will either make a takeover unlikely or at least provide a more realistic valuation should a takeover approach be made.
Iofina's fortunes are still largely dependent on the successful roll-out of their iodine extraction model along with growth of the chemical derivatives business. I hope that the interims due to be published on 25th September will provide sufficient substance to support a higher, sustainable share price.

[dr andrewd] 19/9/2013 20:22

KR - I believe that is where my thoughts are heading but I don't have any prior knowledge of how that would work. Perhaps time for some research.

[king_roster_iii] 19/9/2013 19:47

DrA,

Are you suggesting a revaluation of the fixed assets?

KR

[che7win] 19/9/2013 19:36

Fracking now on itv...

[dr andrewd] 19/9/2013 19:36

KR - of course you are correct. IO1 might suffer some depreciation as it is a year old. The details will be complex as you suggest, but I don't expect profits to be significantly impacted.

The lease depreciations raise an interesting thought though: let's say a lease costs $100,000, however the combination of that lease and a plant means you can produce $20,000,000 revenue and in excess of $10,000,000 gross margin per year. What is the value of the lease that you previously purchased? I presume that it could be somewhat more than the original purchase cost, but i don't know. Food for thought (BTW I have no idea of the cost of leases required for a plant)

[king_roster_iii] 19/9/2013 19:17

DrA,

Plants will be depreciated over their UEL, same with leases - although slightly more complicated I suspect. So some impact on P&L but certainly not full cost.

However in addition there's probably start up costs & lawyers fees ect that are beyond the normal opex once the plant is up and running.

But I 'm not sure how material these will be and if they are they are one offs so irrelevant to the on-going business plan.

[dr andrewd] 19/9/2013 19:11

Surely all plants, leases etc become assets on the balance sheet. They don't impact profit.

[n3tleylucas] 19/9/2013 18:53

When I read this I know the results are very very bad.

"the extra costs for H1 as they have gone into a rapid roll out phase, so there will have been some spending going on in H1 with all the staff leases and various other bits. The chem div should have done fine yoy though v H1 last year."

Read that properly, the penny will drop ... or should that be the pound?

[everybodywangchungtonight] 19/9/2013 18:36

Brother Justin has spoken!

[scrutable] 19/9/2013 17:24

I very much like the deduction drawn by che7win that the RNS "Shows the rollout is on plan - otherwise he (Lantz) wouldn't have been given this new role.

As for age 62, I would not have been happy to see a successful 40 year old, full of energy and confidence, itching for a CEO role to stamp his personality and brilliance all over it.

Lance has tested innovation rigorously to produce simply outstanding business model . We don't want it changed at this moment. We want reliable execution. Apparently we have it.

We may well go global effectively from a position of strength in 3 years time. Not now. Lets see those 100 brine contracts in the pipe line brought forth, executed, and fulfilled. The world will be our oyster.......

.....unless some damned fool encourages and facilitates a takeover.

I dare to generalise with "Fool" because I am confident that no consideration payable for the shares can ever be re invested as well as where it is now.

Every shareholder has a right to sell and spend the proceeds on riotous living and insane purposes, so let them choose to sell and do so - but not to force a sell out onto other shareholders out and leave them to reinvest in more inferior projects

[festario] 19/9/2013 16:53

Ho hum...Given what happened in July, I will only fully believe that we have left 150p behind, once we have left 250p behind.

[diggulden] 19/9/2013 16:45

Angel, agreed, but a close above 150 which has been a sticking point for a while now is a good move.

How did L2 look going into the close? Still 25k sat at 254?

EDIT, good spot jointer..... 154p!

[angel of the north] 19/9/2013 16:42

That habitual fall into close is annoying the fu*k out of me!

[hitsha3] 19/9/2013 16:37

we have close above 1.50 now.

[ansana] 19/9/2013 16:04

No I am in Canada, so few posts from me. I hope the Lance to L.... Doesn't mean stage make up lol.