Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[warrensearle] 19/9/2013 12:56

Mmm maybe.. the share price didn't do so good at the last investor presentation which was at the AGM - interims are the key if they are bullish then we will fly and the presentations will be a reflection of that

[eddyeagle1979] 19/9/2013 12:46

Love the fact that the new guy is called 'Lantz'...

I think the ii presentations next week will be good for the shareprice if last year's presentations are anything to go by...

[hew] 19/9/2013 12:26

It is easy for those of us that bought in way back to be relaxed. Not so, those underwater at present, and their nervousness, and perhaps disappointment, at the lack of a significant share price jump at the CEO announcement is understandable.

I suspect the reason for the stability we see today is that "those that matter" re setting the share price - I am certainly not one! - have known perfectly well that good progress was being made, thanks to the very capable hands running the show. In a sense, the pinning on of the CEO badge is just a technicality.

The share price at 150p rather than 250p was not due to "a lack of a CEO", but a realistic view of what a sensible, well deserved and underpinned price is, given the stage of company development that had been reached. The 250p was an overshoot at the time, due to enthusiastic piling in with some disregard for the fact that, in the physical world, "things take time". Now some time has elapsed, and everything points to the share price being re-valued after the Interims - on what will then remain a sensible, well deserved and underpinned basis.

I don't see that rise as necessarily being a single immediate step. But I expect to hear that we are marching on in steady stages: commission plants, produce iodine, sell, make a profit. It is worth noting that sequence. Progress is measured in profit only at the fourth stage. At the Interims I will be concentrating on the earlier ones.

[che7win] 19/9/2013 12:18

Although I didn't expect a share reaction on the CEO news, I do however like the statement today on IO#3.

A deliberate slip out by the company ;-) That's what the market should and is reacting to.

Further more, Lantz would never be recruited to director level had his consultant work in the last few months not been impressive on the rollout.

Two things:
1. Shows he's up to the job and a good asset;
2. Shows the rollout is on plan - otherwise he wouldn't have been given this new role.

All good news today and the fact they are doing so many presentations next week shows that they have a lot of positive things to say IMHO.

Oh, and that chart has a nice upwards curve forming.

[dorset64] 19/9/2013 12:18

Netley the Nutter

[captain_kurt] 19/9/2013 12:11

I can smell it monts...bears have to choose between a roasting now or napalm later in the year :@)

[n3tleylucas] 19/9/2013 12:03

"they also advised that there will be a presentation to private investors on the same day"

Reassurance tactic to deflect the bad news.

"the market seems to like the news of appointment of new CEO"

You are looking at the wrong share.

[northern1] 19/9/2013 11:54

the market seems to like the news of appointment of new CEO

onwards and upwards for IOF

[warmsun] 19/9/2013 11:51

Fest,

can't post a snapshot, sorry...but, we do still have the 25ks sitting at 154 and 156

[festario] 19/9/2013 11:49

How's L2 looking anyone?

[bogg1e] 19/9/2013 11:40

Its a shame that the rns today coincides with the Fed tapering announcement, im sure most traders etc are fixed on movements in the FTSE 350 where definite rises would be expected on a day like today. When the dust settles they will notice the progress here.

[worsleybird] 19/9/2013 11:33

share-knowledge.org.uk
Iofina (IOF) have announced to the market that their interim results will be released on 25th September. More interestingly, in the same announcement they also advised that there will be a presentation to private investors on the same day. This is excellent news and I would also expect that while the board are in the UK during that week, they will also be making presentations to institutional investors.

So after a summer with the share price stuck in a tight trading range around 150p (following a decline from its year high of 250p), can shareholders now expect a re-rating between now and the year end? There are a number of potential events that suggest this could be the case.

Prior to the interims being released, I would hope that a new CEO will be appointed. This would mean that investors will have the opportunity to meet the new CEO and CFO at the investor presentations. Moreover, it will provide the company with the full-time leadership that has been lacking since the previous CEO had to resign his position on health grounds.

The interim financial results are unlikely to be spectacular, although I anticipate that the company will be close to maiden profitability. If the company can confirm that brine input to the IO2 iodine extraction plant have improved, this will have a positive impact. If they can also confirm that IO3 has been commissioned and IO4 is on track to be commissioned around a month later, this will also provide an opportunity for upward re-rating. And of course, I would also expect confirmation that IO5 and IO6 will be completed before the end of the year.

Whatever the status that is provided in relation to IO2-IO6, investors should be able to calculate the likely iodine production rate as at the year end and therefore, firm up on revenue estimates for the first half of 2014. Similarly, the guidance provided in the interim report and subsequent presentations should also enable solid revenue estimates to be calculated for the full financial year ending 31st December 2013.

I anticipate that these numbers will justify a higher market capitalisation than the £190m currently attributed to the company. Rather than speculate at this juncture, I will revisit my fair value calculation once I have seen the interim numbers and forward guidance provided by the company.

In addition to the core iodine business, there are other factors that could provide further upside potential. There is the water permit application (the first of several) currently being processed and a positive update to this application could come any day now. There is also the possibility of progress on Iofina's oil or helium assets. There has been significant activity recently in land that is in the proximity of Iofina's assets and I would not rule out a farm-out licensing deal on either oil and/or helium before the end of the year.

I have been concerned for a few months now that Iofina are vulnerable to a takeover approach with the share price at current levels. Hopefully, the above factors will lead to a re-rating of the share price between now and the end of the year that will either make a takeover unlikely or at least provide a more realistic valuation should a takeover approach be made.

Iofina's fortunes are still largely dependent on the successful roll-out of their iodine extraction model along with growth of the chemical derivatives business. I hope that the interims due to be published on 25th September will provide sufficient substance to support a higher, sustainable share price.

[naphar] 19/9/2013 11:11

nev, if there is a takeover approach, that does not get rebutted immediately by the company, there will have to be an announcement at some stage. I would expect even takeover rumours, which might begin if someone were to start stake building, to drive the price higher. We all know how fast this share price can move if there is sustained buying, where buyers are keener to buy, than sellers are to sell, it drives up the price.

I also don't see how there can be a takeover approved by the board, at less than the £2.50 peak we have already seen, assuming delivery, and the board will always have the latest info on that. That delivery seems to be happening with IO3 apparently built from todays RNS.

Of course, just building plants is not enough, they need to have good outputs, but all indications, nods, winks, new broker notes etc are that IO2 has improved brine throughput on higher ppms (80% capacity mentioned in the broker note, possibly now more than that), and that IO3 or 4 (no idea which of the two as the first that was built was called IO3) had, at the time of the AGM presentation, at least 20k bpd going to the disposal well, which should mean a much quicker ramp up than we had with IO2.

I await the interims with interest from a forward looking perspective, as I am invested for the future. As far as the H1 financials are concerned, I expect good Iofina Chemical growth , I will be disappointed if we do not see good progress there in the region of 40%+ revenue growth. From a profit perspective, I am not expecting great things any more, we already know there was a slower than expected first half ramp up in iodine output. I don't expect enough of the internal iodine production will have made it through the chemical manufacture process, through inventory and sold to customers, to impact the gross profits of Iofina Chemical to a great extent, but I could be wrong on that front. So from the financials, I think we will get a mixed bag, especially considering increased staffing levels etc. It's all about putting the stepping stones in place for future growth though. We had a slow start to 2013, but I think those stepping stones are being put in place as promised in the operational update. That gives me confidence, as does the boards willingness to hold another retail investor presentation, and spend two weeks talking to insi's both in UK and Europe.

I am personally feeling more confident now than I was just a month or two back when it was obvious delivery had taken a knock, although still understandably wary of more bear raids (if that is indeed what happened).

NAI DYO and make your own mind up.

[festario] 19/9/2013 11:09

Nevmeyers, I have days when I think that way, but today is not one of them.
I got in here at 120p, but piled in with top ups right up to 247p.
So I am underwater too.
However, the plant roll outs are now confirmed, the patent is in place and I can see next weeks figures giving the Iodine market a jolt.

There is so much more to come here, and if the worst did happen, then any takeover would be well North of any share price that you bought in at.

[freelance] 19/9/2013 11:00

Ah,great. Many thanks again Monts and Malachey.

[captain_kurt] 19/9/2013 10:50

The writing is on the wall.

When these plants strike these prices will be history..and doubters will forever be nursing a life long regret that they could have done so much better with a bit of mental flexibility and simple maths

[titus10] 19/9/2013 10:47

Just a note for those of us plebs who want to post links but won't pay to be blue - replacing the tt in http with capitals, i.e. hTTp, apparently does the trick (for now).

[nevmyers] 19/9/2013 10:41

I must admit whatever anyone thinks of the new CEO the biggest disappointment for me is lack of interest in the RNS in the market, I have been sitting for several months now at a loss and am beginning to think I'm going to be lucky to break even. I am happy to hold long term but all this talk of takeovers could mean I don't even get the chance to get my investment back.

[monts12] 19/9/2013 10:36

yes, just click on


looks like supply at 150p cleared retiree?

[malachey] 19/9/2013 10:34

hxxp://www.dnrc.mt.gov/wrd/water_rts/appro_info/applications/application_status.asp?id=30066181

[freelance] 19/9/2013 10:30

Monts, sorry to bother you again, I'm clearly doing something wrong. The number plus the company name doesn't seem to work?

[freelance] 19/9/2013 10:22

Many thanks Monts

[jonnyno1] 19/9/2013 10:21

Great stuff, this guy knows the iof ropes inside out, just what is required.

J.