Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[worraps] 24/8/2013 09:32

Lib

I believed too, that there was no other company out there that would be able to roll out the way that IOF is / could, and if "the insti's and brokers can see where it's going too with over 50% investment", why have no new institutions come on board for quite some time, and why has the shareprice dropped 44%?

I'm up to my neck in IOF's shares, bought in good faith (my own problem, and responsibility), just like hundreds of others, but surely you must admit the market isn't seeing it the way you are, otherwise, quite logically, the shareprice would not have dived the way it has?

If we don't get some sort of great news in the next week or two, before the interims, what is going to prevent yet another crash?

[superg1] 24/8/2013 09:28

Re who (following on from TFC)

Who may be interested in a new, lost cost iodine producer, Dow ?? Huge pockets and in the industry.

I note they intend to exit sectors where the completion is too high. It seems logical that they will try and corner niche sectors in future

[the librarian] 24/8/2013 09:17

It's a fair comment escape, but I cannot find another company at the moment that is rolling out in the way that IOF is, I feel sure that the insti's and brokers can see where it's going too with over 50% investment.

[escapetohome] 24/8/2013 08:49

Lib -Are we just as bad?

For instance in your post above you say "locked in at the moment will see a return on their investment in 2014." - and yet there is no guarantee whatsoever of that.

I commend you for your insight into Scrutable's method. I had no idea that was his game and took his comment at face value.

[the librarian] 24/8/2013 06:47

Trying to drive the price down Scrutable so that you can get a better entry point? Hope there are not too many that take on board your 'methods', they are a target and create volatility but thank you for 'enlightening' us!

[scrutable] 24/8/2013 00:37

SG
H1 13 figures at the same level as H2 12 would be distinctly unimpressive, and need much more sensitive drafting of the RNS than we are used to, if we are not to experience yet a fourth Bear raid after such results. Of course some convincing new milestone passed on the route to water sales would have the same deterrence.

To restore the momentum of late Spring investors would need to be absolutely certain of a 40% Y on Y earnings increase. This will come from IO#3 and 4, but there is desperate need for certainty of execution and removal of misgivings about production slowdowns, whether from construction delays, brine supply, drilling company cooperation, unexpected weather, resignation of executives, pump failures or logistics, change in the price of iodine, etc etc etc.

However much PIs remain convinced that the story has not changed ,but only been delayed IMO the market at large has lost confidence. It can easily be restored...but will it? Or at least when will it?

[scrutable] 23/8/2013 23:06

ramu kumar

What's difficult about understanding what i write?

Repetitive experience shows how foolish it is to invest in only your favorite share. Particularly if it is one of those 310 pre commercials on the LSE which have only a good story but no revenue. A dangerously high proportion never make it. Invested in certificated shares of companies worth more than £20m you had a 1/25 chance to double your money over the last 12 months but it is very rare to find an IOF (twice in 10 years), and more often than not your exciting AIM share goes belly up.

If you take a high risk, leveraged, strategy in only one share you will inevitably, one day experience a black swan - what Donald Rumsfeld called the unknown unknown - and lose it all.

You are far too sanguine. How many decades have you been investing not to have had a 100% loss? Meldex, Mrs Fields, CCH, Oystertech, Wiggins, and plenty more lost 100% for thousands of PIs. There are at least three AIM shares currently quoted which have a high probability of failure, and by their very 'low price' they attract hundreds of chancers and blind bottom fishers.

Spread your risk if you can't face losing it all.

I did, and I havn't. ( lost it all). I have lost 90% of the 75% I stupidly left on the table in May, when I knew that the risks are greatly increased.. I take a great risk but experience helps each time to reduce it. The strategy is tweaked after each setback. I won't make the same mistake next May.

Next time I will take out at leas 33% - perhaps more, and only put it back on the table when buyers return from holiday and overpower the sellers again.
I am not going to change my high risk stance. It comes with the age. At 85 one doesn't take a 10 year view!

.I now need to repeat last year, when £35k in August 2012 was turned into £400k by April 2013. Of course the IOF 5-bagging performance (geared x4 times) was a material tool, but there were plenty of +50% shares around which effectively treble
assets when geared x4 times as there are today.

But don't try to do what I do, or like Bette Davis you will have to "fasten your seat belts". She famously cried out as she went up the stairs "it's going to be a bumpy night".

[the fat controller] 23/8/2013 22:34

I thought capex was $1.5m for some reason. Did I dream that?
TFC

[warmsun] 23/8/2013 22:28

Ramu, I did think exactly the same thing...didn't want to ask as it seemed 'nosey' as his dealings are not my business...I did also wonder if he meant winnings from other holdings in his portfolio. But, as you say, if it was 'winnings' from IOF, then all seems a bit odd!

Scrut, without being too 'nosey' maybe you might clarify?

[1madmarky] 23/8/2013 20:45

Yep $2m all in

[ramu kumar] 23/8/2013 20:41

I don't understand Scrutable - he keeps going on about IOF being comparable to ASOS i.e. multibagger etc. etc. then posts 'Luckily I took a quarter of my winnings out in late Spring'. Why sell if you're convinced you're onto to a winner? No doubt he will ramble on with a jar of malt whisky!

[battery] 23/8/2013 20:31

$2M was the figure given by Jeff.P at the PI evening.

[bogg1e] 23/8/2013 20:22

I have $2 mil in me notes.

[engelo] 23/8/2013 20:21

Can anyone not on holiday remind me of the CAPEX figure for I02 and clones? Is it $2m ?? tia

[zimbi] 23/8/2013 19:53

sweeetnodude -subtley amusing :-)

[engelo] 23/8/2013 19:08

Scrutable: good to see you back after a miserable few months. I managed to join the select club of those who have lost money on IOF after a few recent mistimed t20s, but on a modest scale.

Can't believe the share price is this low still, but confident that things will be different in a month or so and beyond.

My tip for success atm: Don't do any research. Just look at the top 3 on the leaderboard at 8.30 am and buy them. Some have made 50% on the day on this basis, and some (like REM) go up on the day and the day after and the day after that and...

[monty panesar] 23/8/2013 14:26

CAP that I mentioned back in April is cracking on in the US and Russia. Roman A and his mate have just invested in it. It has multi-bag potential.

[sweetnodude] 23/8/2013 12:24

Many warnings were extended on the IOF boards regarding the perils of spread betting long before the recent falls....

[n3tleylucas] 23/8/2013 11:44

I'll always remember you telling me @ 240 it would be stupid to short this SCRUT. The fact you then lost 90% of your IOF holdings is a salutary lesson.

For Christ's sake only bet what you're comfortable with, no matter how good a share looks, there are generally always setbacks at an early stage ... this leads to trader frustration and real selling pressure, especially if the stock has already risen strongly.

There will be many others well below water, feeling the pain. The heartbreak of seeing a fortune diminish is not pleasant.

Read these threads with the utmost of caution. It's your money, and this game is not as easy as it looks.

[che7win] 23/8/2013 11:12

Sandbag,
I agree with you, £10 a share is more than possible within 24 months without the unwanted attention of a takeover.

[bogg1e] 23/8/2013 11:01

Cheers chaps.