Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[nashwan123] 21/8/2013 09:24

duplicate post.Sorry

[che7win] 21/8/2013 09:23

Baguette,
I like reading your posts because they always bring a negative viewpoint ;-)

Tell me, how does it matter if IO5 and IO6 commence production a month later, I would expect they have some leeway factored into their forecasts.

Delays are part of any business, we have seen delays this year, but management have set expectations of an increased rollout next year.

[warmsun] 21/8/2013 09:22

L2 looking good this morning...there is very little on the Offer before we get to the mid 1.40s (subject to an iceberg!).

Looking for a move up today*...fingers crossed!






*famous last words! :)

[sandbag] 21/8/2013 09:22

che7win,
The workers will be aware of the radiation doses they are getting. On the photos I have seen many are wearing personal dosimeters on their overalls. Others probaly wear them inside their overalls where they should be. The dosimeters give audible and visual alarms and can be set to alarm at whatever dose rates are given as maximum.

[superg1] 21/8/2013 09:16

Bag

Why post? because they ask. I will be very happy in the future to be off ADVFN altogether.

Re io3 to 6. I have clearly I don't stick to financial dates as targets. If io6 isn't producing until next April it doesn't bother me.

If Iof stopped at 1000mt sacked unwanted staff it's around $30m plus more revenue than where we are now.

It seems madness to me that a share actually executing a potentially lucrative business plan, is at a value below other shares that currently have sod all other than promise, with revenue years off. Revenues that look far less than IOF and far less likely to be achieved.

Io4 producing by the year end would be a great result when you consider the potential.

[the librarian] 21/8/2013 09:13

I think the difference is BAG that they are not thinking where shall we put this plant, they have decided, here, here, here and here. The oil production in the area has gone up, the SWD's are being filled and hopefully IOF have learned from past mistakes.

Weather is great for the roll out, pad is going down for IO6, they have two teams on the go to build IO3 and 4 who will then move on to 5 and 6. Water is no longer an idea and progressing well, they have employees trained to run the plants. They have a patent on the brines, which apparently seems to have no value!

Going forward it looks a good investment to me.

[baguette] 21/8/2013 08:59

SG You endlessly repeat the same huge list of opportunities but I think we all know that the issue is whether the plan is actually being carried through effectively without previously unforeseen difficulties and to be honest you cannot guarantee that. Why the sheep stops bleating when you repeat the list I dont know.

Like everyone else I am very hopeful of news soon but for example in a recent RNS it was stated that FRP delays were "at least 4 weeks" and everyone takes that as 4 weeks whereas to me that sounds like "At Least" 4 weeks and that sort of makes me think it could be more, so the plan is probably subject to more delays that we know. That is probably why the price is where it is. There is nobody more impatient for news than I am (which is why I post on here as it a steam letting valve) but please lets stop kidding people who may actually buy and sell based on what they read here.

You know I always take the more realistic (you could say pessimistic) view but have not be wrong yet (but hope to be) and I would be very surprised if there is more than io3 and maybe io4 right at year end in production - not 3,4,5 & 6.

That is my alternative view

[che7win] 21/8/2013 08:59

Gad,
That's what I said to my wife last night, who would want to be one of the workers bussed in every day, they aren't being told of the radioactivity they are receiving IMHO.

Forward P/E of 5.66p here at this price.

[superg1] 21/8/2013 08:57

Bog (If looking)

I saw your point re iodine being locked underground etc etc and the contamination.

The problem arises when it's above ground and the risk of contamination.

While such a worry may not cause immediate problems with exports of iodine for them, as the iodine-131 thyroid problems pop up and iodine supplements etc etc, the fear factor grows re Japanese exports.

There have been complete bans by some countries on some products form Japan since 2011, some lifted, some still have restrictions. Most countries importing items check for radiation.

[worraps] 21/8/2013 08:56

noli....nice info you've unearthed there! Thanks for posting it. It all adds to the potential picture that's slowly being built.

My current 'wobbly' is simply being caused by having no CEO for 10 weeks now. That's far too long to not have a captain at the helm. The market doesn't like it, and I don't like it. I'm sure CF is doing his best, (although he doesn't want the job), and I'm sure the board is doing it's best to find a replacement for the big hole Lance has sadly left.

I know the propects for the rest of this year, and particularly for 2014 haven't changed. I will be quite happy if just four plants get going before the end of the year, and two more in the new year. I know the business plan hasn't changed.

I am just finding this current hiatus, and the awful shareprice (for what we have and are going to have), very, very frustrating.

I really appreciate all the information that's posted here, I just wish the market would hurry up and appreciate it too, and we get that CEO!!!!!

[gadolinium] 21/8/2013 08:50

Re Fukishima,
You have to admire the courage of the power station technicians call on to deal with these tremendously dangerous levels of radioactivity.

[the librarian] 21/8/2013 08:28

It was on the news last night gad, they were catching fish to test them and the exclusion zone is 5000 metres at sea.... not enough for me!

Bogg1e wrote a couple of interesting posts regarding the situation, unfortunately they are probably experts on fall out (Nagasaki and Hiroshima) so should have experience in managing the situation well. Must be worrying for the people who have to live there.

[escapetohome] 21/8/2013 08:27

Thanks Uriney and Worraps
Yet more confidence imparted and this little sheep is happily bleating away on the pasture.

[gadolinium] 21/8/2013 08:14

This latest disaster at Fukishima may cause another spike in demand for potassium iodide tablets.
------------------------------------------

Japan's nuclear agency wants to raise the severity level of a radioactive water leak at the Fukushima plant from one to three on an international scale.

Highly radioactive water was found to be leaking from a storage tank into the ground at the plant on Monday.

It was first classified as a level one incident on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (Ines).

But Japan's Nuclear Regulation Authority proposes elevating it to level three on the seven-point scale.


This week is the first time that Japan has declared an event on the Ines scale since the 2011 earthquake and tsunami.

The move was announced in a document on the agency's website and was subsequently approved at a weekly meeting of the regulatory body.

[superg1] 21/8/2013 08:12

On another point

I have no need to post at all. I'm just a holder of IOF and do so with great confidence, but that's because I have out the hours in on the research and continue to be aware of things not mentioned here.

Individual investors make their own decisions about being in, an out. They decide make short term investments, with targets and exit points, trade, or go long term.

Trading is difficult to call and most fail at it.

Most PI's it seems to me chase rising prices and buy on fear of missing out, and then chase falling prices and sell on fear.

The simple answer for investment is what the future looks like for a company. If it looks very good, then the chart can be a guide for entry points.


Look at ATUK right now, it's one I know and mentioned on the tips thread. I do hope there is something behind the current rise other than the CEO daft comment (£50m) and herd interest.

If it's the latter ,then it will peak out at some point and may crash. Hopefully it will hold for all.

If not

[sandbag] 21/8/2013 08:10

"Take a look at SQM and their chart. The last thing they need right now is IOF getting to rates as the US top producer, iodine is their one stronghold."

And that SG1 is why I am concerned about a cheap takeover. We need the company to start promoting itself and tell the world what it has otherwise Luscas or a.n.other will be stepping in with a low bid.

[superg1] 21/8/2013 07:57

Worraps

All you have to do is look at the maths.

In May io1 and 2 were doing an average of .8 to .9 mt per day, with some days over 1 mt.

That's around 300mt per year. They didn't state the i01 bpd but out io2 at 18.7 k. Earlier comments re io1 out is around 13k bpd.

Iof have said bpd will increase at both. In May/June the Mid-states drilling activity disrupted some supply temporarily and that has been mentioned.

That rate with io1 and 2 at half speed was 300mt per year, that's $16.5m at the SQM bulk sale price.

io2 had far better ppm than io1 and they say new brine is arriving and more will arrive at io2. They expect to get to 30k bpd at io2 as new brine gets tied in over the coming months.

io3 to 6 are going into Oklahoma where for some sites ppm can be well above the average. They have mentioned maxsorb and 50k bpd plants, so clearly some swd sites exist at over 50k bpd.

If you add a 300mt rate for io3 and 4 then the same for io5 and 6 that is only an apparent rate of half the capability of 30k plants.

So a rate of 900mt at half speed, taking the average of figures we have been given.

So around $50m revenue, but we have pods due to arrive as well on those extremely high/hyper ppm sites.

Iof plan to add 1 main plant every 2 months next year.

As I have said it makes no difference to me whether io6 is completed at the end of December or next February.

But before some wrongly think 'what is he hinting at'. I'm not suggesting plants are late.

in fact I have heard from a number of direction that the plant builds are going well and they are in fact now on the pad for io6. I always check and I believe those comments to be true.

IOF have said they intend to get up to io6 by the year end and they are on track. That could slip of course but what is the worry.

io1 didn't look like it would get over 80mt, so in theory io2 was at a 220mt rate at least in May, on 60 to 65% bpd rates.


IOF suggest $10-$15 opex per kg for a plant running at a decent rate. as production increases opex comes down.

They plan to exit 2013 at rate as the US largest producer, that would be 1200mt plus. They know the bpd and ppm, they have and we know they have 6 plants planned for this year.
If you look at the figures re io2 and consider it's eventual potential full speed it covers a third of the 1200mt.

They also plan to have pods and 1 every 2 months on the big plants next year.

So they are looking at an exit rate of $66m per year of raw iodine, add in the chem div side re mark up for derivatives and that is a rate of over the $80m mark in revenue.

Then we have water due next year, selling half the water, $15m to add and double for the 80k bpd, but that assume cold only at the $1 pb mark.

So you can see that puts us up to the $100m mark rate, $80m plus from plants io1 to 6 which are being built now.

Through next year 6 more plants and more pods planned.

So the triple digit growth IOF mention is easily achievable IOF based on the plan.

Some can say it will go below £1 or quote a low figure. Where on earth does that fit in with what is likely to be achieved over the next 6 to 12 months.

Some shares are double the MC of IOF but have no revenue for years yet and doubt that they will be anywhere near the profit level.

As for the Chem div update. I keep saying, the chem div has it's own production of around 60mt per year form recycling, and they bought bulk iodine, as shown in the inventory comment, to cover H1 derivative production.

Production coming online earlier would have added to the H1 pot. In theory if they had managed 100mt extra in H1 and had sold that as a bulk product that would have near doubled the H1 yoy figures v 2012.

So to me the story is the same, but the timescales have just slipped by a few months. We are not talking a share where we are having to wait years for the share price to recover to old highs.

I have picked out a series of shares I thought were over-priced and would take years to represent their share price.

I can add SLE to that list when I was looking and advising others not to invest in the 15 to 17p range. I think it's 5 or 6p now.

To me it's all about timescales to represent the share price in profit returns of a range of a 15 to 25 PE rate.

Up to io6 the chem div and IOF comments seem to suggest (digging re ppm and bpd supports it) $80m plus from iodine.

Call the opex overall 50% which is well above what they aim for and you have £25m profit rate post io6.

Not a lot of that will be taxed in the first year due to prior losses, add on £10m profit after tax for 80k bpd.

None of the above fits in anywhere near with the current share price.

Delivery is needed, but you can see why I don't worry if that is by December 31st for io6 or March 31st, Investment is about patience.

If I thought the business plan could not be achieved, and that IOF had maxed out then I wouldn't be here.

Al that has happened is that if IOF start to deliver over the coming months some funds have taken shares at a very good price.

Yes they may get them cheaper, if the market takes the price lower, or more expensive if up, but the key point is, that this is a very promising company with massive growth potential near term. IOF are in the middle of US booming sectors and iodine sector that is struggling and will continue to do so.

Take a look at SQM and their chart. The last thing they need right now is IOF getting to rates as the US top producer, iodine is their one stronghold.

[ramsey11] 20/8/2013 23:40

I replied to a certain no it alls comment..most have filtered....a pest would be a promotion for him

[supreme mo] 20/8/2013 23:30

Sparrow, agree re: downbeat messages - would suggest that ITEC/BoD very carefully review what they say next. The 'underplayed' card is starting to wear a bit thin with me as well - it's high time they start blowing the trumpet a bit i.e. leases they have and quality of ppm for each site and opex low teens and in some cases sub $10 which was clarified by Jeff P at the Investors presentation.

We got some positivity from the latest broker note which referred to they OPEX.

One thing I will say sparrow is that those who bought over £2 have an opportunity to reduce their average purchase price down by buying at these levels. Whenever we go to the supermarket we always look for the 2 for 1s and value deals - same principle works with shares - your £ buys more shares at lower prices - SIMPLES as the Meerkat says.

For those with a short memory have a look at this recent video interview with Chris Fay and at the end ask yourselves does this company sound as though it is in trouble and in danger of going to the wall!!



Ramsey11. What do you mean sir??

[uriney] 20/8/2013 23:08

Escape,

Im still here and my view the plan hasn't changed, we have had issues, we may have more but what company doesn't. like Strutable my SB account took a battering in the flash crash, that's the stock market, I still have all my shares and I have accumulated at these levels, by the time Christmas comes the share price will be well north of the current level (all subject to rollout plan being achieved in timeframe set out by the company) my belief having met some of the team is at that they will do just that, others may not agree, we will know who is right in 4 months.

Uriney

[ramsey11] 20/8/2013 22:49

Explanation for bem?What do you know