Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[chumbo] 22/8/2013 15:34

Me too. I've just received a grumpy and impatient email from a friend too.

Patience.....

[freshvoice] 22/8/2013 15:04

Join the club Bob!

[bobsworth] 22/8/2013 14:23

After telling all my little world about Iofina and some having bought in as a result, I wish now I kept my gob shut!

All I get now is why why why has the share price fallen and should I sell?

After saying a big NO and just take advantage and buy some more.

I just hope and pray we get back to £2+ very soon or I will have to change my name to no friends Bobsworth!

[bobsworth] 22/8/2013 14:16

Yes how dooo yooo dooo too Bog.

Oh dear ! After asking Superg1 a question I thought superg1 has miss spelt Bob !!!! Too many late nights!

Sandbag, despite being away a lot, Iam proud to say that I log every day, especially 7am, to see if we have any official news.

With so much great research and postings from you all, especially bog, I would not miss it for the world.

[bogg1e] 22/8/2013 13:25

Jeesus 237? Oops now 238. Shutting up!

[sandbag] 22/8/2013 13:17

Bob,

Bogg1e has had 237 posts in the last 30 days. Most of them on here. Where have you been?

[n3tleylucas] 22/8/2013 13:05

Interim margins will be bloody awful if you're still relying on bought in I to flog via IC. Amazing how rampers think they've landed a knockout punch, whilst picking themselves up off the floor lol ... So funny :))

[bogg1e] 22/8/2013 12:36

SG cheers. I would feel more confidant about 2013 figures if i could fairly calculate them, i've given up, just too many variables! This is countered by the fast roll out, which seems to be progressing at a more than satisfactory speed. I'm sure we are experiencing yoy growth in spite of setbacks, its just hard to measure at the moment :-(

PS Bob Im Bog. How dooo yooo doooo :-)

[bobsworth] 22/8/2013 12:23

Thanks everyone for your replies. Not sure who Bog is though! lol.

Fingers crossed then that the interims will still show significant progress for Iofina and most importantly of all highlight whats coming short term.

With reference to IOF#2 does anyone know officially, as skylite says "everything else at Iofina is flying, as 1 and 2 are now" , that IOF#2 is backup to full production and more and that the additional bore holes have been completed.

If so why has Iofina not told us?

[superg1] 22/8/2013 12:22

Some good points.

I note the share magazine don't quite get the water story either. It's confusing to those that don't understand it. The first permit and intended further applications are nothing to do with Atlantis.

IOF are applying in the normal way for rights. Atlantis and the rights swap are additional strings to the bow that no others have.

Most here know that, but I see we have some new arrivals.

Bog

What will represent disappointing figures? H1 last year was around $7.6m. So that's the figure to work off to show if they have improved yoy on the chem div.
The non iodine revenue kicks back in late H2 then fully for 2014.

Had they had a decent amount from io1 and 2 to add to the pot, yes it would have been better. However as sais before the chem div has been doing well in it's own right.

If the chem div shows yoy growth for H1 then it's going in the right direction with extra production adding to the pot as we move through H2 and into 2014. Those extra's could be significant for IOF, and the iodine production market.

So we are not expecting fireworks , as production details have been given. However I wouldn't right off growth yoy.

[ansana] 22/8/2013 11:14

The doubters will have a very nasty shock, there is no doubt about that. The future is about tech that works, tech that is now protected, tech that is being rolled out as I type and yes we can expect triple digit growth. You'll see.

[bogg1e] 22/8/2013 11:10

Bob, the derampers have a point; the toss up is between disappointing figures now vs excellent prospects going forward. In regard to iodine derivatives, the BoD did say that this is an area that is growing, but the figures i have for 2013 derivatives output requires 250-350 tons of iodine, whereas the bulk order you mention was, according to my notes, 400 tons. Im not sure we can easily say when this will run out or when IOF will have to meet demand via their own output at this stage. Hopefully if the BoD are more "open" with figures we may be able to better guesstimate future prospects in regard to revenue and current/future operations when the interrims are out on sept 17th, 3.5 weeks to go, with likelihood of good news in between re water/ceo.

[captain_kurt] 22/8/2013 11:04

I think the doubters will have a nasty shock.
I've not expecting triple digit growth to be reported in Sept, but I am expecting very decent double digit growth with a forecast of triple digit growth to come

imo dyor

[bobsworth] 22/8/2013 10:51

superg1

I accidently clicked onto the derampers iofina site and was shocked to see the rubbish they were posting.

On the issue of the coming interims for 2013 they were strongly indicating the results will be poor and a real disappointment to the market. Their logic being that IOF3 has been delayed by several months and IOF2 has been well below expected output due to additional bore holds etc.

To offset this and keep the interims moving in the growth direction, I am right to think that Iofina bought in an excess amount of raw iodine late 2012, which by now they would have used up to keep their growing iodine derivative operations maximised while they upgrade output from IOF#2?

Also if this true, i.e. bought in an excess of raw iodine to keep iodine derivative output growing while their own plants come online, they must have planned the IOF#3 move and IOF#2 upgrade back in late 2012.

By buying excess raw iodine it also cleverly told the Chileans that they were still no threat to them in terms of iodine output, thus keeping them nicely into the under the radar.

Apologies if this has already been covered, but with my business to run and little free time, its getting harder to keep up with all the excellent posting on this bb.

In light of this your view on the coming interims would be much appreciated.

[n3tleylucas] 22/8/2013 10:48

Wasn't the rally from the 170's to 250 mainly due to the (cough!) 'water' news?
Knock that froth off, add in all the bad news, and you've got off lightly ... so far.

[worraps] 22/8/2013 10:31

longsight, re 7376,

Re:- "can the market really think the absence of a CEO is such a disaster?"

Have you got another explanation for the 44% shareprice drop that happened on the announcement of the resignation of Lance Baller then? It would seem to me that the market DOES in fact think the lack of a CEO is a disaster! That drop happened BEFORE the 'running commentary' even began on the subject.

Since you are quite correct in the fact that the main evidence of credibility of the company was does the technology work, and we now have that evidence, along with the patent to safeguard it, what is your explanation for the huge shareprice drop?

[mikkydhu] 22/8/2013 10:26

I also agree with you longsight.

Before IO1 came on stream, investors' focus was strongly on whether the tech would work or not. That it works is now accepted. And not only has the tech worked, but teething problems associated with getting IO1 to work properly have also been sorted and that plant is now, according to recent news releases, performing very well. Those teething problems included pumps that failed and receiving iodine-free brine from some sources. Well, the company has demonstrated that it can solve problems of different kinds. I think investors should take a lot of comfort both from the tech working and the problem-solving capabilities of the company's workforce and not magnify teething troubles with IO2 and later plants.

Jointer13, thank you for the article. A long time ago you supplied me with a link to a presentation and that was v. useful. Your contributiuons much appreciated.

[bogg1e] 22/8/2013 10:24

Dig, if anyone (which i dont) has access to share magazine it would be helpful to collect a few points and add it to the article in the usual feedback section at the bottom of the article. We cant get the article improved (whats written is written) but we can point out flaws.

[diggulden] 22/8/2013 09:46

Not a bad write up, although this bit is wrong:

'In exchange, the third-party operator receives 10% to 20% of the sale price of the iodine.'

Other than that, it's pretty accurate. Thanks for posting Jointer.

EDIT:
Just been looking at volumes today. More volume on ISDX so far today, just over 50k this morning.

[rhwillcol] 22/8/2013 09:44

longsight: thank you: that was exactly my reasoning when I first invested in IOF - waiting for major risk reduction for technology to be proven, and with patents filed for and major contracts being tied up, providing barriers to entry. In my own thinking, since then - and from now on - simply a numbers game, in the light of big trust built up over time (due to excellent research on here) in the authenticity, integrity and ability of those who run the company.

[jointer13] 22/8/2013 09:39

edit......hxxp://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/articles/iofina-is-back-in-its-element#.UhXMxCpwZjp

Iofina is back in its element

Scalable, high-margin model should help form overcome latest setbacks


Weather-related production outages, June's resignation due to ill health of chief executive officer Lance Baller and margin calls for spread bet and contract for difference (CFD) investors have all contributed to a 40%, three-month decline in the share price of iodine producer Iofina (IOF:AIM). This creates an interesting entry point at a company with a scalable and high-margin business model. Broker First Columbus Investments forecasts a free cashflow (FCF) per share will burgeon to 3.9p in 2014 and 11.4p in 2015, implying a tempting FCF yield of 8.3% for the latter year.

Chemical attraction

Iodine is a relatively rare element used in a number of products and industries, including pharmaceuticals, animal feed and disinfectant. Although there is no spot market, the latest reports from key producers suggest average prices of around $50 per kilogramme (kg). Iofina's operating costs are in the $10 to $20 range.

The £189 million cap looks to build partnerships with large US oil and gas companies which see it extract iodine from the waste brine water produced at unconventional fields. The first two plants came onstream in the second half of 2012. By the end of this year the £176 million cap hopes to have six sites in operation with a further half dozen set to start work in 2014. They will be part-funded by May's $15 million convertible bond issue. The group has secured patent protection for its IOsorb technology (2 Aug).

Iofina pays 100% of the installation costs, operates the kit and retains 100% of the iodine output. In exchange, the third-party operator receives 10% to 20% of the sale price of the iodine. The company sells the iodine into its own specialty chemical iodine derivatives business in Kentucky.

Proven concept

Second-quarter output of 45 metric tonnes, reported earlier this month (1 Aug), was below expectations. Extreme weather limited the output of partner Midstates Petroleum (MPO:NYSE) but the US firm has started to put in place better infrastructure to avoid a repeat of the problems created by what it called 'once in 50-year storms'. Iofina's reliance on third parties for its production is a risk but this should reduce as further plants are brought onstream.

Baller's exit is a blow, given his role in helping transform Iofina from a good idea to a revenue generator, but with the concept now proven the impact of his departure is reduced.

Further upside could come from the Atlantis prospect in northern Montana. This is estimated to contain 35 billion barrels of water which could be sold to producers in the Bakken shale formation. Iofina is awaiting approval from the relevant authorities to extract 80,000 barrels of water a day and this is expected before the end of September. First Columbus says the project could eventually provide $6 million a month in revenues

[longsight] 22/8/2013 09:25

when I attempted to value IOF, for me, the really important risk factor was whether the technology worked or not. Assuming it did then the patents aspect was also important. The temporary lack of a CEO is really just a silly detail imo in the context of the bigger picture. ditto the speed of roll-out.

The big thing is that the tech does work & it is protected - so the rest will follow. imo the shares are on this basis a lot cheaper now at 135p then they were when they were 25p at the start of 2012. Then they were a punt. Now the full realisation of value shd just be a matter of time.

maybe the running commentary on the Co on here & elsewhere might be obscuring what I think is the main key to valuation i.e. as per above.

Can the market really think the absence of a CEO is such a disaster? They'll get someone & given the opportunity here I think they'll get someone good.

[obbig60] 22/8/2013 09:19

Heres the link to the Shares article, but only subscribers can read all of it! ( sorry I'm not ).
hxxp://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/articles/iofina-is-back-in-its-element#.UhXJIX_Hyt8

[the fat controller] 22/8/2013 09:04

Can you post the article, or a link to it please?