Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[ridicule] 22/8/2013 09:03

A positive article out today in Shares Magazine!

[rogerbridge] 22/8/2013 08:01

Good post SG, I do not think investors have caught on to the significance of the pods on high ppm. I hope for more information on number of pods and timescales for delivery and installation on the next IOF update.

[superg1] 22/8/2013 07:18

Just a point on what I view numbers may be for plant production.

Don't forget very often I'm just the messenger and convey the bits and pieces flying around.

That can come from a number of directions. Much of which I seek to confirm by my own digging.

E.G. Way back the io2 area ppm of 300 was mentioned. Iochem had ppm ranges of 300 to 400.

Then if you look deeply the Northwest Oklahoma college had a bit of a field trip in science, and linked up with Arysta to check ppm rates. The details are in a report showing a ppm average of 300.

Then if you look at recent production comments from May, take into account low ppm and bpd at io1, then the reverse calculations come out around the same ppm.

IOF said they have sites of 450mt plus (30k units) before io2 arrived. Those levels would need 300ppm. So it all fits.

Then they said some sites with abnormally high ppm would od more.

Then we find they are shifting all their attention to OK. recently they have reported Hyper ppm and multiple sites of extremely high ppm. 2000ppm mentioned long back but higher numbers now being said.

Such high ppm wells would surely be low bpd, but obviously 2000ppm at x bpd is the same as 200ppm at 10 times the bpd.

Then more recently a from a few directions the mention of 30k type sites of ppm higher than io2, so I had a dig around and found bits and pieces to support the claim, hence it gets a mention.

Post that the multiple sites of extremely high ppm came up.

So it seems clear they have a mix of sites which include some of significant ppm levels.

We'll just have to wait and see what bpd is going to each site and how many pods they mange to roll out over the next 6 to 12 months. Pods it seems could do as well as io1 or more, but without some figures it's hard to call.

The area is a drilling boom and we have seen how the comments on ppm have changed significantly in the last few months. There are a lot more wells going in, and for certain areas, it should be a case of more and more high ppm wells appearing

[meadow2] 21/8/2013 22:53

Naphar - I make the point that, given the latest output figures for July and August and a possible forecast for year-end output, we can extrapolate the MINIMUM output for 2014, not a difficult task I would suggest.

[pcjoe] 21/8/2013 22:33

Nice one Bag - I'm in the conservative camp myself - looking at likely forward p/es on this one - its hard to see any obvious risk & massive upside potential!

[superg1] 21/8/2013 22:14

lol

I knew iodine was is hitting new tech uses with a growing list. Better lithium batteries is one and replacing platinum in cat converters another.

Now this-:

[naphar] 21/8/2013 22:14

Meadow,
"
The Operational Update of 1st August include the sentence '....An update on FY guidance will be provided in the interim results.....'. So we should know the minimum full-yearly rate of production for 2014. With luck, this should provide a welcome boost to the share price, one hopes!"

I would not expect the interims to give you any guidance on 2014. From that comment I am only expecting some guidance on full year 2013 expected results, and even then I do not anticipate much detail.

There may be some details that allow you to make some assumptions and do some sums to get your own estimates for 2014 though.

[roundup] 21/8/2013 21:42

Some good posts today, maybe lead to a more peaceful night's sleep.

[baguette] 21/8/2013 21:36

N3t Actually I said by mid to Q3 running at 1500 mt and ensuing £30m clear - not £30m in 2014. The point being that the market would note the rate and project a P/E of 20 with further growth occurring on top. Cheers Sleep well I think I have done enough posting today for some while

[n3tleylucas] 21/8/2013 21:15

lol, you can't say £30m of 2014 earnings then back-peddle to 'rates' BAG. At that rate you're already ascribing to 2015's numbers. We'll come to 2015 when we've sorted 2014 out. Write 2013 off, but not 2014 ... yet. Goodnight.

[baguette] 21/8/2013 20:30

Che7 Yes I agree and of course if we only believe a fraction of what SG indicates the numbers could be, a much higher output is possible but I find that conservative generally takes into account the "less than perfect" conditions that prevail in business - it encompasses sods law etc

[meadow2] 21/8/2013 20:18

The Operational Update of 1st August include the sentence '....An update on FY guidance will be provided in the interim results.....'. So we should know the minimum full-yearly rate of production for 2014. With luck, this should provide a welcome boost to the share price, one hopes!

[che7win] 21/8/2013 20:10

Bag,
Appreciate your reply, that seems fair but conservative to me.

I expect plants 1 and 2 are capable of 500MT if working perfectly; in reality that will probably be lower but we have to wait and see some of their parameters such as their uptime.

You have a better understanding with your background than me on the operations of plants - it very much feels that the first couple of plants have been a steep learning curve for them and the rollout will gather pace going forward.

[baguette] 21/8/2013 19:57

N3t Not necessarily clean earnings in 2014 but by mid to q3 "at the rate of" which the market will take into account to a reasonable extent. In the past I have been close to your camp (when you are being more rational) but now can see a clearer path provided there are no unknown "horrors" out there

[rock star] 21/8/2013 19:55

Has anyone been to NW OK recently? Don't underestimate the US "can do" attitude....even without a CEO!

I agree with BAG on figures. Get the 4 plants built and running then let the upgrades come through.

[baguette] 21/8/2013 19:41

Che7win

SG would know best but it sounds like io1 & 2 should together manage at the very least 200mt and 3,4,5 & 6 should surely be capable of 300mt each without any fancy ppm and without mobiles etc, so taking a dead straight view lets say 1-6 or 1-7 should do it and SG may say less. In any event surely this should all be achievable by mid 2014 latest. All of this calculated on lowish output and allowing say 300 effective days per year.

If the market is there and we crack a sales growth path why not £4 and growing by mid to Q3 2014 on iodine alone.

It seems to me if this cannot be achieved it will be not because we can't physically get the output but due to competitors blocking out our sales path.

[che7win] 21/8/2013 19:19

Baguette,

Good post, how many plants do you calculate are needed for 1500MT?

[baguette] 21/8/2013 18:44

Sorry should have said after tax no ebidta

[baguette] 21/8/2013 18:00

Worraps thanks for that.

Here is my thinking and a calculation (and its positive).

What would it take to get to say £4 a share. Well by the time the £10m loan is converted at just over £2 thats 5m shares and lets say there are some juicy options set up - so lets say the shares in circulation go up from 128m to say 140m.

- Do i believe a P/E of 20 is achievable - Yes
- Do I believe an Ebidta of £30m is achievable - Yes
- What would that result in - well 20x30m=600m divided by 140m = over £4
-What would that take in output, there are loads of calculations around and none of us knows for sure but lets say (without water or anything) 1500mt
- Do I believe we can do 1500mt in 2014 - Yes

QED - all management have to do is deliver not just the plants and the output but rather importantly the Sales

[che7win] 21/8/2013 17:26

We must be near these figures now:

Recent production running between 800-900 kilograms ("kgs") per day with an expected 20-50% uplift once fully optimised, giving an annualised production rate in excess of 300 metric tonnes ("MT") per annum as previously forecasted;

The Chemical division is probably steaming ahead too:


· Record revenues underline continued strong performance at Iofina Chemical by processing waste iodine as well as the Group's own production;

[bobbyshilling] 21/8/2013 16:35

Exactly worraps. I used to be a bit impatient myself, but having been invested in mainly oilies in the past, I learned that they almost always never delivered on time, and some not at all. In comparison, IOF is rolling along real nice!

[worraps] 21/8/2013 16:23

Spot on, bobby. My biggest downfall is impatience! But I've really got to mend my ways. It's only a few months, afterall.

[bobbyshilling] 21/8/2013 16:06

Well, my 5 eggs worth is that I too have made mistakes in the past and invested in too many 'jam tomorrow' shares, and have inevitably lost money on those. At least with IOF we actually have production going on as we speak, but importantly there is a roll out plan that will increase production substantially, and relatively quickly. Also, the company is fully financed to enable that to happen. Patience is the main requirement here for investors I think, but as has already been pointed out, the timescale to fruition, compared to many other shares with higher market caps is relatively short, and we are at the beginning of that process right now.

[bogg1e] 21/8/2013 15:35

TFC its that damn pesky changing of the http to hxxp, thats all.