Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[noli] 06/8/2013 18:21

Bag, SG will know for sure but as i see it the brine comes directly into the plant due to temp required, 140, the sorbent is the end product once its been through the plant that then requires crystallation.

Freelance, maybe, it will probably be like a number of other items, the bb will find it first once provisionally granted, it matters not if it gets provisionally granted as the public may have issues with the permit in the public comment timeframe. I don't expect any problems with the public comment, it will be granted.

[baguette] 06/8/2013 18:10

Noli thanks for that. It sounds like there is not a direct piping into the plant but some form of transition of the sorbent. I thought the point was that piping in would maintain well exit conditions and be so much better than barrels or totes or whatever. am I getting mixed up between brine and sorbent ?

[freelance] 06/8/2013 18:03

NoliThanks for that. I'd forgotten about the engineering report. I understand that the permit grant will be made public before the 45 day period for public comment. Otherwise how would the public know about it?

[noli] 06/8/2013 17:54

I doubt it freelance, the engineering report has not been submitted yet another week or so for that, then that will need to be reviewed and a 45 day public comment period has to completed once the montana gov have said all is good to go.

[noli] 06/8/2013 17:51

Bag, the idea was, lets use IO#2 as an example. IO#2 is the main plant which has a crystallation building. Your spiders web comment is spot on. IO#2 being the main plant with all other plants and mobile units all around it, IOF then visit these locations and bring the sorbent back to IO#2 for crystallation, at the IO#2 building it was said they would make products to sell rather than take the iodine back to IOC as some products could be made in the field as iof hire many chemists.

Only iof know where the plants are going and the ppm's, so new drilling i would imagine would be only in certain areas as the high ppm is not all over ok.

Rugrat may have a better idea as he has completed maps where the swd's are, once new drilling has been updated on his maps i am pretty sure it will give us a fair idea of what iof are up to.

Hope this helps.

[freelance] 06/8/2013 17:46

Am I right in thinking that the first water permit announcement is expected any day now? No doubt the relevant website is being monitored closely!

[baguette] 06/8/2013 17:01

Just an aside from the argy bargy of people getting very tense about the share price movements which are certainly volatile to say the least but for the moment the price is probably about where it should be until something more positive comes up.

Can any one give me a picture of how the plants will actually fit in to the areas of customer operations. My understanding is that io3 and subsequent plants will be in areas where there are multiple drilling operations and be hooked up to the brine to take advantage of temperature etc (and io2 soon) but I cannot see a picture in my mind of what that means. Will it sit like a spider in a web on the landscape, hooked up to several wells at a time - hard to see how this can physically operate unless the pipes are buried - what happens as the wells decline will the pipelines just get longer and longer. How many can be hooked up at a time. Maybe the hooking up is not quite as direct as I imagine but into some intermediate stage.

If this has already been covered sorry, if so just refer me to any previous posts. Thanks whoever SG ?.

[superg1] 06/8/2013 15:59

That will be ATUK Nev. It flies around both ways on buys/sells, one I keep an eye on for the future.

NYSE side took a dive on open, so bids come off.

[nevmyers] 06/8/2013 15:45

I wouldn't get to hung up on RNS content or trying to work out why shares go down on what is good news, I was interested to read an RNS on another share I have been watching but not yet bought into, It was nothing great to read and even contained this

"While the Company Formations division continued to see a small decline"

can you imagine the damage to IOF shares with a line like that lol

but these shares still went up over 30% I still think IOF shares are being manipulated with stops being triggered on SB accounts.

[diggulden] 06/8/2013 15:39

AIM shares flying into ISAs

'Among top 10 shares bought for ISAs on H-L's Vantage platform were Iofina (LON:IOF), one of the stars of the junior market last year, '

[superg1] 06/8/2013 15:23

Boggle

I can't see much re margins for H1 as they had that bulk buy, but I'm not invested for H1, or H2, I'm here for io 12, 16 or whatever they want to go up to.

The reason being iodine is very scarce commercially. Japan, one of the top producers is in decline, with Chile on it's backside for many years re water power and rising costs. The Chile government predicts the issues will compound until 2015, when they hope to start turning things around on the infrastructure, but then a long haul of a decade or more to fix it.

That won't solve the water issue though, that will be a long standing problem fixed by seawater and higher opex.

The research into iodine demand, problems for producers, scarce resources and years of growing demand are the attraction to invest. IOF seem to have game changing tech and will develop an over-looked major resource into a lucrative business.

Then there are all the others bits of water, gas, and oil sitting in the background very nicely.

I have no intent of exiting IOF unless there is a significant material change that makes all of their business sectors unviable.

My bet is they will build plants and will become a significant producer of iodine.
The water side seems nailed on too as it is a triple system.

Water rights application.

Rights swap deal back up

Plain old pump it out of Atlantis, limited cleaning needed, store it in the Fresno and sell it anywhere down the Missouri.

The first option should succeed, no-one else has option 2 and 3. So if rights are considered fully appropriated , in the Montana and ND area, then IOF are in a very strong position for any further demand.

Obviously if rights are considered as fully appropriated I anticipate the price pb of water would rise. It's not just about fracking a well, they get re-worked many times.

[ramu kumar] 06/8/2013 15:08

SG1, your figures are impressive - can you forecast total annual production (not exit rates) for years 2013, 2014 & 2015. TIA

[superg1] 06/8/2013 14:52

Batt

Things will improve, even with io2 on the 18.7 mt it was still doing .7mt per day, so that will only grow as new brine and of higher ppm is added.

The plan is 10 more plants over the next 17 months, starting with 4 by the year end then one per month.

On top they plan pods on the hyper ppm wells, so that will add nicely to the pot.

Taking the current spluttering io2 rate as an average, it should mean 3000mt as an annual rate. Spluttering based on the boom all around it.

Knock it down to 2000mt which is well below spluttering, at current prices it's over the $110m mark in revenues just for the raw product, a percentage of that will go via the chem div and carry higher prices. 3000mt means $165m plus on the current price

Then in that timeframe water should be around at a potential 80k bpd for the first depot. $1 to $1.60 for cold, $5 to $6 pb for hot.
As the water side grows, they have the potential for the 2 more depots in Montana and those plans for depots in ND geographically being reconsidered.

The 3 forks play has only just begin with the USGS recently saying that doubles the Bakken. IOF have 200k acres of 3 forks and all the 3D data, with an anticipation of reasonable oil.
They have acreage around what is being said to be a new conventional oil play in Liberty county, with the operator that is drilling top leasing adjacent leases which I believe belong to iof.

Then the Helium find, that will take time, but it's there.

Why the Niobara for wet gas, all over IOF's acreage appears, I haven't a clue.

Just looking at the iodine, and the business plan keeps me as a very keen investor in IOF.

Personally I don't think annualised rates of $100m/$150 revenue for iodine are covered in this price, but that could be conservative depending how well plants are doing in that timeframe. IOF say some will do 450 plus and others higher, so 2000 to 3000 from 12 isn't a mad figure.

Then potential water revenue for depot one. Obviously the first step is rights achieved, then we can talk numbers. Building water depots is not difficult or expensive.

On top of that they have the rights swap should they choose to pursue that, but best to go after a slice of the water available via their own rights, before taking that route.

First C use only the $1 pb cold rate as the guide. $80k per day. $29m revenue with most of that as profit.

[bogg1e] 06/8/2013 14:32

SG1, cheers. In regards to IOC I have always assumed we have to wait for the accounts to be published in September before we can see the product lines and related margins.

[battery] 06/8/2013 14:26

They're not the only ones SG.!!

[superg1] 06/8/2013 14:18

Zara

The last rns was a classic, state things that are of no consequence and keep the good stuff low key.

The most stupid point was the oil comment going to io2. It will be something like 1% saturation and dealt with by additives. But then the partner wouldn't want that level of loss so would correct their skimming kit.

Historically iof old tech (filters) had oil issues as did Arysta, so those with little knowledge wouldn't know what the oil comment was about.

In the patent rns they then stated how well the tech works on all brine, which it does.

40% to 80% run time. all the down time can be attributed to io2 poor weather and power cuts, as in the First Columbus buy note.

io1 is an iodine plant and up to a couple of months back been running at well over 90% of the time. Not mentioned

Also that new brine expected Q3, when in fact new brine to some degree was going to io2 prior to the rns, but no mention of it.

One line too re very high iodine content at multiple sites. Hydrosorb and Maxsorb not explained, and so on.

Funds will want a CEO in place.

Old Mutual seem to like the story.

[iof multibagger] 06/8/2013 14:16

retiree thanks whys it not come on advfn trades page.?

riding 10k here now good luck all

[n3tleylucas] 06/8/2013 14:14

Why don't you 'great researchers' (sic) ever bother to ask 'why doesn't IC ever update the market on its derivative sales?"

I think there's an issue here.

[zarasport615] 06/8/2013 14:05

more plummeting for no reason

[superg1] 06/8/2013 14:01

Boggle that was a production update, and didn't include the position of the chemical division, which is where previous revenues have come from.

What went out the Chem div door shouldn't be affected by H1 circs. They have iodine for their derivative needs. Bulk purchase 6,8 months back, plus 60 mt from recycling.

They had virtually no production mid last year.

Their own production, is progress towards their own supply.

[fairenough11] 06/8/2013 13:59

eeza,

profit,first buy was at 120p on the intra day shake down.

[hitsha3] 06/8/2013 13:58

Still here not selling until i get my holiday money.

[diggulden] 06/8/2013 13:58

Eeza, you was going to sell when the price hit 50p if I remember rightly?

[eeza] 06/8/2013 13:55

Lol !!!!!!!!!!!
Well are you sitting on a profit or a loss.
Loser.

[fairenough11] 06/8/2013 13:52

So Eeza you have been here for 3 years during which time the share price has multibagged and you're bashing the BOD?

Summat doesn't add up imo.

I think you are an internet share bashing troll.

Have a nice day.:-)))