Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[worraps] 06/8/2013 13:02

OUCH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That hurts. Just got the fantastic patent news, CEO news shortly (apparently)....what does it take?

[shonny] 06/8/2013 12:44

In a couple of weeks you can have these for 120p. Maybe even a 100p in a couple of months. The isa rampers have jumped the gun big time here.

[bogg1e] 06/8/2013 12:44

Given the share price has fallen below the 200 dma, suggests to me that the share price will fall further tbh (current buy price = 147p). Any good piece of news will quickly turn the share price around. However, apart from CEO news, the last rns suggests to me that we will have to wait maybe 6 weeks at least for an operations update, and thats plenty of time for traders to push the share price around. I don't expect a massive drop based on perceived current value, but i do expect to see volatility continue and with low liquidity another flash crash is plausible.

[bobbyshilling] 06/8/2013 12:40

I ISA,d yesterday. Better to be safe than caught out by a good rns. Anyway, as has been said, is a few pence cheaper worth the risk? Some might consider it so, but new CEO or water news could arrive. It is up to the individual.

[wynd100] 06/8/2013 12:40

Well a bit of encouragement and a small price drop - jumped in at just under 147p. Of course, it immediately came down a touch further!, but my feelings are that 145p is about the realistic floor just now. Let's hope that proves to be correct as I'm sure we'd all be happier to see it steadily climbing again.
Not too much spare cash in my ISA just now, but at some stage I intend to move some of my non-ISA holdings. IOF is fast becoming my largest holding!

[n3tleylucas] 06/8/2013 12:21

wynd100,

Are you really asking "will this go lower?"

In my opinion only, there is a 99.9% chance you will, if you want to, be able to buy this at significantly lower prices before the financial year ends.

[superg1] 06/8/2013 12:14

Wynd

It depends on how you think new CEO news would affect things. Funds don't like uncertainty. So they will see that as progress.

The rumblings are that the position could filled v shortly.

As for True Oil, and when they mention that well is a guess. Tough to find info on True Oil.

The last I heard is that it was a potential new Bakken find, there is the Alberta Bakken but I don't know which it is.
A suggestion that they are late reporting the well (fines) and have been top leasing acreage around the well.
IOF call it a conventional oil find adjacent to their acreage (that is the the Oil well). Their Utopia wells are on oil, but the new well is on a different play.

It's just a case of waiting to see what appears in any completion, list as and when True oil file it.

[angel of the north] 06/8/2013 12:10

Wynd
With the potential for good news RNS's here at any time (There IS no bad news)then risking scrimping for a penny or so could be very damaging. Just my halfpennies' worth.

[wynd100] 06/8/2013 11:50

Well the ISA-blip seems to have been short-lived and activity as well as comment on here is also at a low ebb.
Is it now time to buy for the ISA or might a few more days patience be rewarded?

Any thoughts or a look at L2 would be welcome.

[superg1] 06/8/2013 08:26

Re mid states.

There is a live webcast at 3pm which may add explain more details relevant to the Miss lime play

[superg1] 06/8/2013 07:08

Pc

I did ask re how much brine were new wells on the miss lime play producing. Some early wells were on 5k bpd, but it is variable from well to well.

Typically the extremely high ppm wells tend to be less re brine volumes, from a few 100 bpd to a few 1000bpd. Those will be the mobile pod, type sites.

Midstates look busy on the Miss Play, but others iof are linked with like Chesa and Sandridge will be doing a lot more with over 2 million acres. I think Sandridge plan around 400 wells this year.

IOF did say a few weeks for well completions. Most of the flowback frac water exits in the first 10 days. So well completion to time that produced water comes out looks to be about 5 weeks.

So all of those 21 wells spud on most will now be in production mode (status date 30th June), if not all. That fits in with IOf's comments re new brine from wells.

[pcjoe] 05/8/2013 22:39

The internet suggests that the Miss lime produces lots more brine than oil at wells ( 10X quoted ) - Although it varies well to well

From retirees post above -

"During the second quarter, the Company had five rigs drilling in its Mississippian Lime horizontal well program in Woods and Alfalfa Counties, Oklahoma. Midstates completed a total of 12 wells, all of which were horizontal, and spud a total of 21 gross wells of which five were producing, 11 were awaiting completion and five were drilling at June 30, 2013"

And also

"Midstates plans to run five rigs in the Mississippian Lime during the third quarter and plans to invest approximately $105 million completing wells drilled during the second quarter and drilling 20 to 25 new wells"

And also

"have an average 30-day initial production rate of 573 Boe per day."

That makes a possible initial 10 x 573 Boe = 5730 barrels of brine per well per day

I`m maybe reading this wrong but all the above seems to tie in with what we`ve been hearing about new brine coming online at IO2 & lots of it......

EDIT

Thanks for posting Retiree

[ansana] 05/8/2013 22:18

Yes smile three will appear when the new CEO is appointed. The janitor did mention seeing some notes about some water project. He said that all the ducks were all lined up and they were very confident of success. I can feel another smile coming on later in the year. Realistically it will be later in the year not sooner.

[superg1] 05/8/2013 20:26

Monty

There are a few on big climbs that represent profits well above current circs, and some not looking like getting any profit until 2016 and further down the line and then still not representing current prices.

Some I don't see as carrying anything like IOF's potential revenue/profit. Plus iof should make the transition towards rapid growth near term.

Some of the others there is just no way of mapping out, potential revenue with some notes wildly varying, on factual matters, let alone revenue.

That's what I like about iof, at least we have some figures available to work with. Iodine prices, suggested future margins, tech that works and not an idea, a growing market, scarce resources, unique business model (now patent protected), competitors seeing growing costs, and so the list goes on. All it needs is delivery and they have a good team.

Then water, which is easy to figure out re the potential revenue.

Take some of the promising looking tech shares on the AIM, there are a number of them, with plenty of investors expecting big returns, but try and work out the potential revenue and it's virtually impossible. Many rely on the relevant market agreeing and taking the tech or product on. As they say many great idea's never make it. Some tech can easily become out of date in quick time, as some sectors are large and lucrative.

Graphene is of interest, and thus Graphite mines catch the attention. However if you look at the sector, there are a number of 'mothballed' sites. So if it takes off in the coming years, so will the rush to open up those mines.

OT but an important point when looking at the next craze is commercial resources available. On that point-:



•the closure of graphite mines in China, which produces 75% of the world's graphite, has resulted in a fall in global graphite production to 1.3 million tonnes per annum in 2011. Like rare earths, China is restricting the export of graphite to protect its own domestic industries. The second largest producer is India, followed by Brazil, North Korea, Austria and Canada.
•Graphite exploration is focused in Canada, with eight companies exploring properties in Quebec and Ontario. Europe has a number of mothballed mines that could return to production.


There is a lot of it about should there be significant growth. The niche sector their is the quality of the graphite available. Big flake graphite is good but there is better.

Vein/lump Graphite will be the winner in that market but how much it exists in commercial quantities ???

Apologies re OT but I did see some Graphite/Grapehene excitement some months back and had a look. That research is banked for the future.

So if that takes off in the future, it's best to avoid the small flake, lower grade sector, if demand and prices go up, there are mines all over the place that can get involved.

[monty panesar] 05/8/2013 20:03

Sg, I agree. If there is a company that will grow profits at a faster rate I want to know about it!

Once IO1-6 are fully operational the price should justify a £5 price IMHO.

With ASOS there were masses of naysayers all the way up. It is easy to be critical.

[superg1] 05/8/2013 19:43

Nelly

I'm guilty of posting on threads with a negative view, but never do so for gain, or post to achieve that.

On the one's I have posted on with such a view it's because someone has pushed it my way as one to invest in, or watch. So naturally if something looks good, it's worth a bit of digging. If that digging turns up what I think is negative, then sharing that isn't welcome.

I'm in no rush for iof to blaze a trail, it was around 20p just 18 months ago.

ASOS always gets a mention as a recent success story and continues to climb. The revenues coming in keep it climbing but the PE is 400. Online fashion is a bit of a sure fire winner, hence the reason why people keep piling in suppose.
But it is representing profit levels way beyond current performance.

IOF has had early bits and pieces that cause delays, but so does every other share, some have been going many years (10 plus), doing nothing, but promising plenty.
IOF are moving in the right direction to create decent revenues and profits in the future. It's not some great idea that may happen in the future, they are rolling out the business plan, and we are in the early stages.

I always say 'assuming delivery', that may involve some delays we have seen. However it's their suggested capex/opex level in a sector that is struggling with rising capex and opex costs that is the key feature.

Water revenue (permit), gas, oil, helium, the Us rights swap and Atlantis are very useful back up.

[bobbyshilling] 05/8/2013 19:20

Sg, I have been watching POS, and have noticed their March interims, and even taking into account their latest rns, they are nowhere near where we could be very soon, and at the rate of growth that we might expect I would say it would be extremely hard for them to come close too. Yet we are (similarish) market caps, so for me anyway, a simple comparison in two growth companies shows how far IOF could really go, when you look at the revenues we will have.

EDIT - when I say growth companies I recognise the difference in products, and that IOF can easily outpace them, but was looking at just a simple comparison in revenues/profit/outlook/market cap.

[hitsha3] 05/8/2013 19:15

bunch of no good you know what, they are and you cant change that it's in the blood.

[superg1] 05/8/2013 19:07

Not sure what's going on but many have been here since 18/19p so not a bad call I'd say.

Look at every share that has performed well on the AIM over the last year. Bears will seek to undermine the confidence in all of them, regardless of prospects.

Investments should be seen as a minimum of 5 years. 3.5 years to go on that rule to see how iof are doing.

We don't often mention the oil rights, but with 200k plus acres on the 3 forks it may well feature at some point as a sale of the rights. Very hard to call re timings on that but there is plenty of action in the ND area and Montana area, with the 3 forks continuing to gain interest for any decent prospect.

That's not about ramping, it's just an asset IOF have, that may feature at some point.

I seem to remember one of them calling Hydrodec a 10 bagger in quick time a year or so ago, in quick time, but calling us rampers mmmm. It's hasn't done that and looks jammed in reverse.

Just PI's sharing research and info here, and individuals decide whether to invest or not.