Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[ramu kumar] 03/8/2013 23:32

Monty, have a look at First Columbus report (post 6346) - data there that can be useful in your calculations re cash flow etc.

[monty panesar] 03/8/2013 23:15

I agree Lib they have come a long way in a short space of time. Exciting few months ahead.

[monty panesar] 03/8/2013 23:13

Thanks Bag. Food for though. I was thinking at around a monthly production rate of 50m t that would cover the CAPEX for the new plants. I was assuming a cost of each plant being £2m.ie.costing 1m per month.
50x1000x$35 gross margin=$1.75m or £1.16m/month.

We have to remember the Chemicals side is producing a few million in profits as well. I think I am right in saying each of the new plants is mechanised so only needs about 5/6 employees but might be wrong.

If we are conservative and make it 70m t per month to be sure then they should be cashflow positive before the end of the year-probably Nov or maybe Dec. Anyway only a few months away before the bank balance should start increasing.

[the librarian] 03/8/2013 23:08

People are hard to please, this time last year there were questions whether the tech actually worked. Since then from what I understand and have read here.

IO1 up to speed and producing more than IOF expected

IO2 recently getting higher ppm brines and a bit more to add in

IO3 being built with 20kbpd currently available, high ppm's

IO4 4 weeks behind that

IO5 and 6 to be built by the same construction teams, lessons learned from 1 & 2 incorporated, aiming to get them complete by the end of the year.

Water application progressing well, may be a jv, may be sold off, may be kept, more apps. to go in.

Niche product, don't need a sales force.

IOC month on month growth

Patent approved, brine leases tied up

New CEO on the way

All looks good from hereon in.

[hitsha3] 03/8/2013 22:52

n3, i will have a holiday on the money i make on IOF, so there you go. And i will pay my house off.

[naphar] 03/8/2013 22:07

Good description of the prilling process here

[baguette] 03/8/2013 22:03

Monty I will throw a few comments in for debate but frankly nobody will have any real idea at the moment and if they pretend to do not believe it. Here are my P&L thought comments.

Talk about Opex of $10-15% may or may not be just a marginal cost and may or may not include royalties which may vary from customer to customer and hole to hole.

Does anyone know how many people are and will be employed as the plants take off.

Does anyone know what staff will be employed in Selling/Marketing,Admin, Accountancy recruitment etc

What has and will be the cost of Legal in tying up the various leases and more recently the engineering study for water.

Plants as they come on stream will have a lot of their cost capitalised but will immediately need to have depreciation set against the P&L account and they will start to incur breakdown and replacement costs for pipes and valves etc - is this in the $10-15%

The $15m loan is at 6.5% so will cost nearly $1m p.a.

Will there be any water revenue and when.

Much earlier (and this can be computed all sorts of ways) it was assumed that 100MT equated to revenue of £2m so lets say $3m. On that basis 1000MT which lets say equates to 5 plants (could be more or less)(but lets remember they will have to start finding markets to sell the stuff) would give a top line (without the conversion of some by the chemical division)of say $30m

See how many lets say's I have used already. But here's an absolutely wild quess for 1000MT.

$30m revenue less costs of $5m (any more taken up by the profit on the chemical side) = $25m less tax at say 35% = say Net $15m.

This could be enough to fund 6 more plants in 2014 especially as the revenue will rise as plants come on stream. I would then hope that the recent $15m loan is converted into stock with a relatively small dilution and will not need to be repaid.

All in all that would probably make us self sufficient and by the way would equate to a stock market value at a P/E of say 20 of say £1.50 a share so we need to go much further than that to justify the £3 and more that people are hoping (or expecting) this year

[naphar] 03/8/2013 22:02

Not so sure that's right Bogg1e. Check here for the difference between iodine crystals and prilled iodine



Our plants have crystallisation towers I believe. We are looking to install a prilling tower/plant so we can produce prilled iodine, which is the most commonly sold form of iodine that has not been turned into derivatives.

[chrisis33] 03/8/2013 21:55

Thanks ... really had no clue when the rns came out. I just keep watch here out of general interest, with it being such a popular thread.

[bogg1e] 03/8/2013 21:38

Paste about 85% pure i think but would vary, like the impurities from location to location. Prilled mud, same as cake but in granular form and higher margins/costs, lastly crystalised, about 98% pure(?) and highest value production. Then theres a max of 800 tons turned into chemical compound derivatives.

[chrisis33] 03/8/2013 21:27

What does iodine 'paste' sell for? What does Iofina's iodine paste sell for? Are they selling everything they are producing? Is 'paste' the standard form in which iodine is produced for sale? What is it exactly? Does it have a standard amount of iodine in it, or is it always 100% iodine?

Forgive the 'beginner' questions, but as a non-expert and someone without an invested interest here, they are the ones I asked myself upon reading the RNS.

[monty panesar] 03/8/2013 21:04

What monthly production tonnage is the fulcrum point where it all becomes self funding and IOF become cashflow positive? TIA

[n3tleylucas] 03/8/2013 20:58

Tell me SCRUTABLE, that 137? early doors Thursday ... was it 97k? Was it your margin call? Hit high 120's ... just as was told.

[noli] 03/8/2013 20:52

Please take this as fact: They have 2 build teams to build 2 plants at a time, one team will do the foundation work at plant A, then that team move on to do the same at plant B, while the build team starts the actual build on plant A, which the foundation team have just completed.

If you work the builds out and io#4 has started the foundation work, iof have nearly 5 months to complete 5+6.

Also the IOF build teams have already built IO#1+2 so the build will be completed quicker.

[engelo] 03/8/2013 20:19

"hitsha3
3 Aug'13 - 18:50 - 6439 of 6444 0 0

Are we still looking at price target end of year at 4.00 plus.

Bogg1e
3 Aug'13 - 18:51 - 6440 of 6444 0 0

Not on this years revenue!"

Not too soon to think of next year's revenue though. Just need I02/3 figs to nail it down :-)

[engelo] 03/8/2013 20:11

roundup: my reasoning is that if I04 is being built one month behind I03 and construction takes 60 days (60 - 90 days stated at AGM) then there must be 2 teams.

Noli assumed 2 teams in a recent post. Others on here probably know for certain.

Edit: rethinking suppose construction is divided into 2 phases eg (1) construction of buildings/major pipelines (2) installation/assembly/connection of plant, towers etc. Phase 1 takes 30 days at which point the phase 1 specialists move to the next plant.

Again, others may well know more.

[roundup] 03/8/2013 19:39

Is there any reason why we couldn't construct 2 plants at the same time, or is there only one construction team especially trained.

[n3tleylucas] 03/8/2013 19:17

Leicester folk don't need a holiday.

[hitsha3] 03/8/2013 19:07

MY big holiday will have to wait then, also want to pay my house off.

[bogg1e] 03/8/2013 18:51

Not on this years revenue!

[hitsha3] 03/8/2013 18:50

Are we still looking at price target end of year at 4.00 plus.

[bogg1e] 03/8/2013 18:44

Oh cool. Thanks.

[noli] 03/8/2013 18:32

Salt Water Disposal Well, Bogg1e

[bogg1e] 03/8/2013 18:30

Cheers chaps. Whats SWD's btw?

[pcjoe] 03/8/2013 18:05

Yup - Possibly loads of untapped lovely iodine rich brine from different sources going into the future - Dont know if Iofina will get too far ahead as a separate entity but any future buyer should be made aware of the possible potential for old wells & SWDs to deliver going forward - Worth the company looking into when or if they get a breather? - Junior Geologist project? - must be worth a £1 or 2 on any possible takeover

If the new CEO has an O&G or mining background he will be well aware of the value of "recoverable & estimated reserves" recorded on the company books by way of secured leases etc - especially of the non third party JV dependant variety, if possible - I`m sure Sciroco, SQM etc do this albeit IOF have a fairly different extraction model