Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[pcjoe] 02/8/2013 14:29

Bogg - I tend to have a Montana/North Dakota mindset when it comes to all things IOF - Oklahoma would appear to be tropical in comparison over the winter & hopefully will not drag out build times - Bad luck with the weather can affect any construction operation but the UK (& especially Scotland) likely has worse average winter weather than Oklahoma - It never held myself or my construction team up too badly in the past although it has to be said the times of building blockwork in blizzards etc are well behind me - It is amazing though what can be achieved if necessary & when under the cosh

Deadlines always impart a bit of focus to operations on site especially if there is decent money on the line for all - Everything still dependant on management & backroom staff getting their bit right.........

[engelo] 02/8/2013 14:19

sg: thanks for information and comment.

As someone pointed out, the interim production figs will not be great. But this aspect is in the market and the share price now.

As you point out IOF-Chem has not been mentioned. Imo there's a very good story to tell there and that will be a positive in the interims.

And of course there's the forward view :-))

We've all been a bit harsh on CF and his RNSs. (To-day's was fine though.)

Imo he's decided (or the Nomad etc are telling him) not to inflate things ahead of the appointment of the new CEO. They may be close but not know the effective date so got to be careful to juggle the new CEO with the interims and I03 progress points. (edit: water permit is a wild card and out of IOF's control.)

IMo the critical factor to get us back up is the startup of I03, and hope they have cut themselves a bit of slack so that any date in September for end of buid exceeds expectations, and they can commission and get producing by end Sept.

Another point: if I04 is planned a month behind then the i04 build must have already started. Either they have 2 build teams or the i04 build is interleaved with the I03 build. Also applies to I05/6 .

Can you cast any light on this pl?

[bobsworth] 02/8/2013 14:14

noli - great read, many thanks
sg - factual and reassuring posts as ever, thanks too.

[naphar] 02/8/2013 14:11

SG, first half figures will not be OK or even good just because we have iodine in inventory to meet orders. We need to have purchased it at a good price, we need to convert it to derivatives, we need to have managed out costs well and most importantly, we need to have had good levels of sales with good margins, to have get a good set of H1 accounts.

Internal production of iodine helps profitability, but there was not much of that in H1 to filter through to the bottom line, as it takes time to ship to IOC, process into finished derivatives, and ship out to customers.

We have heard nothing of the sales of IOC, rumours of triple digit growth rates, record orders and record months may well be true, in which case they should filter through to the H1 P&L. We have to wait and see, as with everything else.

Edit:The really important part of course is that we are delivering for the long term, but I also think there will be lots of eyes on the interims. Due to the low H1 internal production, I don't think they will help anyone in assessing IOC margins for the longer term though.

[bogg1e] 02/8/2013 14:07

PCJoe - good find, so nov - feb average temperatures from -2 degrees centigrade to 5 degrees centigrade, with 1.4 to 2 inches rain over the same period. Maybe as you say downtime on plant roll out may be minimal as a result. Remember though, globally all weather related records have been broken in the past few years, the sun is behaving strangely for its cycle and all metrics have deviated so far and so fast from averages that we are officially in a period of extreme weather. I wouldn't be surprised if Oklahoma experiences extreme snow, storms, etc intermittently during the winter months. A great source for this is SuspiciousObservers on youtube - 3 min space weather report. Very interesting.

[bogg1e] 02/8/2013 13:58

SG1 cheers re CEO.

[noli] 02/8/2013 13:58

PC, 6 plants will be built this year, i think CF was giving extra time, if the build started around the 17 june and took 60 days then we have 15 days ish for the plant to be built, if electric has been installed on site by that timeframe, hydro testing should be 1 to 5 days then brine water goes through. In theory we could be earning cash in less than 20 days. IO#3 has 20k bpd waiting i believe. IOF usually seem to wait a month after build/commissioning for production figures.

[superg1] 02/8/2013 13:54

Ram and others, I sent off a chem div question as my assumption is they have all the iodine they need to meet orders, they covered that by a bulk buy of iodine months back.

So a reply saying chem div has all the iodine it needs, will show that side is fine.

All revenue as far as I am aware in recent years has come from derivatives. All production does is reduce the margins as more appears.

[pcjoe] 02/8/2013 13:49

I see the First Columbus note has IO3 producing from the end of September rather than just the "construction complete" inference in CFs RNS ( 2-3 weeks commisioning on top prior to production commencing)

Hopefully First Columbus have better CF RNS interpretation skills than some others

If IOF hope to get at least IO5 operational before the worst of the winter & 2014 sets in then they are going to need all the spare manpower they can get on site & not delayed anywhere - 24/7 working if poss - I`d pay them full bonus in order for them to sit out Jan - March in the Carribean if they succeed

EDIT

Just checked on the average Oklahoma winter weather - hxxp://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/USOK0400

Not too shabby at all! - Forget the Carribean - Carry on working chaps - This thing can be turned around after all

[mikkydhu] 02/8/2013 13:44

Many thanks, noli.

[bobbyshilling] 02/8/2013 13:35

Repeated in the report above is what struck me as an important plus in yesterday's rns. IOF technology has the ability to extract iodine from extremely dirty (oil contaminated) water. That makes it very robust tech indeed (my view).

[superg1] 02/8/2013 13:26

Ramu

Same reply. All the revenue comes out of the chem div so far. They had surplus iodine so orders will be met.

IOF haven't commented re the chem div side

[superg1] 02/8/2013 13:23

Aha

It's making a bit of sense now (digging).

That patent as we know does start out from Arysta and Terry Brix, IOF picked it up in the deal. It then starts to add on IOF tech and more will come.

The Arysta side patent covered the SWD site model of brine extraction. I hear this section was thought to be unlikely to be successful, not by IOF but by those involved on the Ar side.

That may be where Ennis made their assumption and bet re the patent.

Well they were wrong on that front, if that's what they thought as IOF just got it.

So a strong patent that virtually blocks anyone else thinking about it.

[ramu kumar] 02/8/2013 13:21

SG, I dread the interims as IOF currently have a knack of overstating very minor negatives and blanking the good news. The actual H1 numbers may be below some PIs expectations but output & plant run times have since improved. Hey, we are not asking IOF to gloss over the negatives or hype the good news - just say it as it is. Maybe my 8 year old son should write the next rns!

[superg1] 02/8/2013 13:17

Boggle

I understand the CEO situation is very well advanced.

[superg1] 02/8/2013 13:14

oh and if you recall old RNS's. In the price surge 2011 they honoured prices to retain customers in prior accounts.
Then this year in small part a 7 year contract appears agin after a prior agreed break in it. In a small part late this year and back in full for next year.

Lot's of details many forget, but io1/2 current circs, don't affect the chem divs output.

The chem div has recycling which adds 60mt pa but at much higher opex than io2 on etc.

So they have the raw stock, io1/2 and recycling add to it. In fact CF said they had a surplus at the AGM.

Presentations showed new products and increasing sales.

Don't confuse production as relevant at this point, as to what the chem div does.

The key point is that as production increases from plants, profit margins grow.

IOF already have introduced in recent times, unique, niche products that no one else has.

[superg1] 02/8/2013 13:07

EWCT

Don't you read.

They have iodine in reserve as in the inventory.

For a significant part of last year they had no production. They were buying iodine in.

They bought bulk late last year or early this year to have in reserve on top of production.

The revenue so far in previous years is from mainly buying in.

Now they have there own iodine to add to the pot.

As someone said, 'A little knowledge'.

[writz] 02/8/2013 11:59

Assuming August continues the better performance indicated for July in yesterday's RNS, for the interims the company might be able to position a frustrating Q2 as an anomaly with specific causes (new drilling, oil ingress) that aren't necessarily indicative of the general picture going forward. The tech clearly works. It has coped with the kind of incident that would have kept other kinds of equipment down for days. And the brine supply variations, which have been hit by the drilling phase, will become progressively less of an issue as the number of wells hooked up and the number of IO plants increases. It's unfortunate that this year rather a lot of the eggs have been in the IO2 basket. Even so, the media seem to have picked up on the output growth rather than the falling short of targets, and a visible closing-in on the forecast 800-900 kgpd production rate by September is still a reasonable expectation.

[bogg1e] 02/8/2013 11:46

How many times has Zak actually called it right with IOF?

[square1] 02/8/2013 11:44

We know what the interims will look like-they told us production volume for H1 yesterday-completion on IO#3 & 4 are the most important factors as they tell us where they are on the roll out.

[urbanyeti] 02/8/2013 11:41

Mr U Turn, Zak Mir moderately bullish again.

[n3tleylucas] 02/8/2013 11:40

Has the short spike really vanished? Or has yesterday's reference date ... 01/08/13 returned to 31/07/13 today? We'll see ...

[testuser123] 02/8/2013 11:33

Morning all. Great spot on the patent jps! Like others I'm curious as to whether this will trigger people like Enismore to cover. Interstingly enough the 'get info' tab on IG now shows IOF as 'daily shorts only' rather than 'unborrowable', implying that previously loaned stock is now being returned. Also the spike up to 3m shares on on the markit chart a few days ago has now disappeared and it is currently showing a dip under 2.5m.

I'm not expecting a short squeeze like we got last year as there is a lot of liquidity thanks to the recent bloodbaths, but it's still a sign that sentiment may be turning.

EDIT: SG - could you ban tim smith2 please. He's just a directorstalk sock puppet.