Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 27/6/2013 10:38

Shonny/superg1,
to be fair, some of the valuations mentioned here were too high for the next 12 months, I was looking for 330p and if we remain on track, that is possible.
I truly reckon anything under £2 is cheap with what we expect in the next 12 months.

However, there are two things at work in any stock.

1. The business and what its worth in the next 12 months factoring in growth(the market looks ahead).
2. Market sentiment which is based on greed and fear and market confidence in the underlying instrument.

On point 1 - I believe the business is largely on track. My concern late last year was the execution risk - can the company roll out plants 1 per quarter and I considered that to be a tall order. I can see how sentiment has been bruised as IO#3 is only being built now.
However, IO#3 and 4 are within 30 days of each other.
Note to IOF - you MUST MANAGE expectations better - saying IO#3 equipment delivered in March and then not starting to June is not good enough.
A young business like this needs to build up expertise for which it's doing, a CEO will help.
That being said, IO3, 4 and 5 should be operational this year.

Point 2 - I think this correction is healthy in many ways. I thought 250p was a bit ahead of the current situation, but not by much, hence I held expecting the next news to bring us up to events.

The AGM statement was not well written, but I didn't expect a fall below £2, even taking it into account.

The warning signs were here however, too many margined up. The margined holders have exaserbated the fall and created an opportunity for others.

I am just happy I own all my shares at this level as it's definitely too low IMHO.
As news on IO2/3/4/water/patents comes out, confidence will rebuild.

Right now, I don't care where the share goes, eventually it will be up when the market notices next year EPS is 24p and today's price covers up to IO#3 in production. That is not hard to achieve IMHO.

That is good enough for me as my timing is not good at calling bottoms.

[superg1] 27/6/2013 10:30

So my caution is to PI's not to get caught up in Fund and trader games, where they have the upper hand.

That's what I say, best to wait for it to settle down and not play into their hands.

Many must have chased buys on the high 160's the other day thinking it was going to re-rate. To me it was just an exit point for traders from the 140's and below.

150 seems to be a pivot point while the market is calm. But then a fund could get aggressive while others sit on their hands and grab any opportunity on a red day.

We have seen a 138 to late 160's range already in the last 3 days, post chaos

[superg1] 27/6/2013 10:21

Shonny

I will answer as it's a decent post instead of the one liners.

You can't cover IOF scoring an own goal with an rns that spooked a few and caused the sell off.

That was preceded by two rns's, The CEO up for the continued position, then resigned.

Then came the shambles AGM rns, which had plenty of good things in it making the future even more prosperous.

True to form most of PI's seemed to get it wrong (Writz aside, and he did a good post).

I'm always banging on about reading rns's properly. GDL is a great example re it's January rns.

That own goal came in a market collapse, it's done now so it's move on time.

The business plan is no different and the OK situation is stronger than I thought.

It's not confidence in the company that is bashed but confidence in the markets. I'm also well aware traders flock to such big price move events.

Imo PI's in general see a price rise and worrying they will miss out, buy and chase the price up. Traders then sell leaving them on the higher prices. The cycle then starts again.

Add that to scenarios in the market overall, that had a big shock itself over the last week. So the main market is nervous too.

Thus if we got a run of bad days again near term, what would funds do on IOF and other shares, would they kindly keep their bids in place, I think not.

As always it's a guessing game, but that's why I urge caution, not about the position of IOF, but the market and traders.

Very kind of TW to now say how great IOF is to try and create that situation (that's my view).

Many were saying 250 would be broken, if you check you will see me saying woooaaahhh let's do that on positive updates.

Funny how zac Mir was saying it too.

I keep saying ignore tip sheets and the like, and DYOR.

[nevmyers] 27/6/2013 10:11

lol Retiree

SNAP !!

[shonny] 27/6/2013 09:54

Superg1 was happy to ridicule my post ten days ago predicting a fall to 180p. He is now advising people to proceed with caution and suggesting a price range of 140p-160p. Two weeks ago he was ramping £5 by Xmas. A danger to the wealth of gullible punters this guy. Beware the ramblings of fantasists who refuse to accept anyones view but their own. I think you'll find the current price is a bit short of 180p Superg1. Think twice before you answer my posts with derisory comments again. That goes for your ramping friends as well. You'll be a long time waiting for £5

[engelo] 27/6/2013 09:51

Nick2008: re Monday there was a recent post by Square 1 which seemed spot on to me. From memory there was a liquidation of a large spread bet which knocked the share price and it turn this blew out numerous stops and triggered more margin calls so whole thing snowballed.

edit: worth looking at Hurrican's recent posts too. Thanks Hurricane.

[nevmyers] 27/6/2013 09:50

Writz

have a look at this

[writz] 27/6/2013 09:20

retiree, I'm not an L2 user. If you have a moment, can you unpack a bit what you look for on the display, and how it helps you on buy/sell timing? TIA.

[nevmyers] 27/6/2013 09:10

ok SG will do, I'm going to be to busy moving sand and bricks in about an hour anyway

cheers
Nev

[moormoney] 27/6/2013 09:09

Nick2008. Good to see you here this is a great opportunity to get some , most holders have read the very detailed research by Superg and others. Thanks again guys. I can't manage to add at the moment but did get a few at the recent lows, long and very happy to wait.

[the librarian] 27/6/2013 09:00

I am thinking that the design job is for my favourite subject.... the mobile Iosorbs.... get those babies on the road :-).

I like their mobility possibilities and personally would rather see more of them than the big plants, we will see!

[superg1] 27/6/2013 08:54

nev

We just need the situation to settle for a few days yet, maybe a couple of weeks.

Business great, but the action has traders hovering. Just happy the market overall has settled down.

We have seen those buyers pull bids before on red days, and so many nerves in the general market.

Proceed with caution, is my view for now.

EDIT

Doesn't read right. All I mean is traders always drop onto shares where there has been sharp action, so we don't want to feed their greed. I want it to settle, as no doubt most do.

Big moves either way short term, will just keep them here. There will always be another share near term for them to play with, so it should be short-lived.

[nevmyers] 27/6/2013 08:51

they are all asleep nick

Im up waiting for bricks to arrive, the drop was caused by a forced sell on SB platform which started a downward spiral, the new thread was started so the undesirables can be blocked from posting

[nevmyers] 27/6/2013 08:48

I like the buy at 125 lol I got some more dosh, Im looking to get in around 141 to try and get my average down a bit

[nevmyers] 27/6/2013 08:43

thanks retiree

[nick2008] 27/6/2013 08:42

Good morning Guys, I usually post on my ATUK thread. So pardon me if this is already discussed. With so many posts in a day on IOF threads, I couldn't get the info right away. Just saw the share price ! Why this massive drop this week? I can't see any detrimental RNS for almost 40% drop earlier this week. (On Monday it was close to 113, that's too low) What's happening? As expected, I browsed through the old thread only to realise that it's closed.Finally came here. Why a new thread? (I think there should be a link on the old one directing to this new thread) I rate the researchers of this stock very highly. So wondering what happened? Nick.

[nevmyers] 27/6/2013 08:36

whats the depth on level two anyone ?
thanks

[baguette] 27/6/2013 08:30

Sandbag - O.K. thanks

[rogerbridge] 27/6/2013 08:22

Sandbag, I agree with you having employed several design engineers in the past. He will probably be used to tweak the design, or possibly be used in pod design or future upgrades. A valuable member of the staff but fairly easy to employ.

[yorkshiret] 27/6/2013 08:05

hxxp://www.informex.com/informex-usa/attend/2014-exhibitor-list

From January 21-24, 2014, Informex will celebrate its 30th edition at the Miami Beach Convention Center with 400+ exhibitors, 3,500+ attendees, and more networking touch points than any other industry event!

Informex USA is the only event of its kind offering exhibitors & attendees a direct view of what is happening globally across the fine, specialty & chemical manufacturing marketplace. The event brings together an international mix of motivated buyers, manufacturers, distributors and sellers of high value chemistry for 4 days of sourcing, education & networking.

[steveolds] 27/6/2013 07:51

Maybe someone should apply for the post and see what the job description and person spec actually is......

[sandbag] 27/6/2013 07:36

Baguette,
The position is for a Design Engineer (who will also act as Project Control Engineer according to the ad.) With the original plants designed, I believe, by Dr Khalev, the company is now ramping up and needs someone full time on design and project control. These functions are basically computer operations using AutoCAD for design and Microsoft Project for planning and budgetry operations. A Project Manager is usually the person who pushes the job along and manages others.

[rugrat2] 27/6/2013 07:12

Maca - Thanks for your reply. I agree completely that the model requires very close collaboration between the operator and IOF, and a flexible approach to brine disposal by the operator. I believe that MidStates are in an ideal situation for IOF from that point of view with a number of high capacity SWD wells within a few miles of each other and an intensive drilling campaign in a relatively small area. Thus a network of brine lines to divert brine to appropriate destinations.

In fact I would go so far as to guess that IO#3, which I suggested should be at the Lohmann site, could actually be on a green field site at a brine line hub. When CF came up with the story that the start of earthworks was delayed by the harvest I was surprised on two counts. Firstly that they didn't just pay crop compensation, which happens here, and secondly that the Lohmann site hadn't been made large enough in the first place when drilled last year.

Enough from me, work beckons.