Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[escapetohome] 24/6/2013 20:55

An RNS from the company would be good - but why should they? You and I invested the amount that we did taking on the risk. So why should the company issue an RNS just to soothe us or 24ric?

The price action is nothing to do with the company, it is the market makers playing around with the price and also fluctuation due to the spreadbeters who overlevaraged and are now having to sell off pronto.

[n3tleylucas] 24/6/2013 20:53

cyberbub,

Good evening. You say £20m clean profit 2013? I say £5m. Let's see who's closest.

Everyone else,

gap @ 102-103 Jan 10/11.

Goodnight.

Netley Lucas

[049balt] 24/6/2013 20:45

Thanks guys!!

[pwcarnall] 24/6/2013 20:44

I know that that May 7th statement has been highlighted to the company in at least 2 emails.The contrast with that and the pathetically downbeat offering of last week has really riled people.

[skylite] 24/6/2013 20:43

I can confirm the 26 strong Somerset mob are well and truly holding, spoke or e-mailed plenty of them today and most are that rare bread who when told to put them away and not look until we give them a nod actually do that; the last time one looked it was 148 so he was quite happy!

24ric took it badly though, he's been twitchy and morose since the Rioja supplier failed to turn up last Friday and he's having to drink Pinot Grigio; 3 bottles. It's a pathetic sight made worse by his incoherent ramblings about market makers, or that could have been wine makers. Anyway, he's not in show room condition, even it's for 24s sake Lance let's have an RNS.

[bobbyshilling] 24/6/2013 20:17

Outlook is still the same :0)

[che7win] 24/6/2013 20:13

Nice recovery in the DOW.

The MMs and spread bet firms must have made a killing today, too many people on margins, they have harvested a lot of shares and the volume shows they had a bonanza.

If, as superg and others say, the next plants are capable of 450MT, then we are looking at multiples of today's price in the next year. £4 for a P/E of 10.
If that's the case, I don't understand managements reluctance to share.

Lance is down £9m in a week, like the rest of us so we are all aligned :-)

7th May statement in contrast to today's price action

"Outlook
2012 was a highly successful year for the Group, and the Board is envisaging rapid growth in both the short and medium term, not least with the accelerated rollout of the WET® IOsorbTM iodine rich brine iodine extraction plants and the introduction of mobile units. The second half of 2012 was the strongest second half in Group history, afforded by only a few months of IO#1 iodine production. Group profitability has increased substantially with increased production from the IO#1 and IO#2 in 2013. Iofina Chemical is both maintaining and growing its position as a quality supplier of iodine derivative products with the foundations in place to expand. The various non-core opportunities, including the discoveries of helium and oil, have recently been made on acreage adjacent to Group's Three Forks/Bakken play acreage in Montana, and anticipated water sales from Montana, if brought to fruition, may provide additional financial benefits to the Group."

[dorset64] 24/6/2013 20:04

SB/CFD's are a dangerous tool in the wrong hands, or at least if you don't keep an eye on them.

Today for me has proved to be actually quite positive, in that whenever one of my SB's in IOF was in profit, I would then set stop losses above my buy price, and likewise move it up further as the share price went higher.

I got stopped out of 80% of my shares today and although if I had took the decision to sell myself, instead of the stop loss I could had sold higher but everyone's clever with hindsight.

So 80% of my shares were stopped out at around the 170p mark, of which I then bought those, plus about another 25% with the same amount of money in my account. So now I have more shares/SB's but all together with a lower average buy point.

Feel for those that didn't have the above in place or the money to buy back, but tonight the share needs a rise of some 80% just to get back to where it was recently and, although the share price might of got away with itself a little, the fundamentals & story remain exactly the same. Good time to buy imo.

[battery] 24/6/2013 19:51

Thanks Warren..

I think most people are still a bit stunned by what has happened.

[superg1] 24/6/2013 19:48

Will wait for the chaos to settle, which it may already have, will see what tomorrow brings

[wayneduncan] 24/6/2013 19:37

SuperG did you use today for your much awaited chance to top up?

[warrensearle] 24/6/2013 19:34

On a slightly lighter note - Battery I don't envy you trying to sort out that spreadsheet of PIs holdings after today ! A fair few sell and rebuys I would imagine

[superg1] 24/6/2013 19:16

A one liner again.

This is nothing to do with the position of IOF. Just the overall market, jitters, but in the main forced sells, and that's why it did the big dip.

IOF have been playing things down, so at least they have the option to say it as it is, which is much better than has been alluded to in nay buy note or release.

They have included in general comments in the past is 450mt plants and higher, some abnormally high. Those are io2 and the one's that will follow.

Pre those comments they didn't have the tech running and proven. Now they have the raw data, of the tech, showing exactly how good it is re yields and production, then now is the time to say so, in a controlled manner, so investors can make their own decision about what that means.

They have a number of things they could expand on, beyond iodine.

[wayneduncan] 24/6/2013 19:13

Ultimate Investments buying more would go down a treat right now..... likewise if the good Dr bought a few more

[gadolinium] 24/6/2013 19:09

Over 360 posts since I left the house this morning, I am not going to read them! I assume there is nothing of note to justify the fall in share price apart from a crisis of confidence. Time for steady nerves.

[warrensearle] 24/6/2013 19:09

Thanks battery

[bobbyshilling] 24/6/2013 19:07

smilingmicky,

a very good summary of where we are I think.

[battery] 24/6/2013 19:06

Warren,

Yes. Although he has been removed from the 'directors and management' holdings group on the rule 26 page his investment company would need to declare % changes in the same way as other IIs until he went below 3%.

So, "Ultimate Investments" (currently 7.07%) would trigger RNSs about holdings changes, however he is now likely to be free of restrictions of directors dealing periods.



For me today was one of those 'rabbit in headlight' moments... wen into meeting at 10 - share price sitting around 170. Came out of meeting 40mins later, share price sitting around 130 and falling like a stone.

[warrensearle] 24/6/2013 19:04

Would Lance still have to RNS if he sold shares in his new role ?

[ramu kumar] 24/6/2013 19:02

Someone mentioned double bottom - I hope not but if solid positive news is not forthcoming then who knows, anything is possible.

[warrensearle] 24/6/2013 18:57

Or simply the directors buying shares at this level

[smilingmickey] 24/6/2013 18:55

Here is what I've sent to folks who have invested in IOF at my suggestion.

I'm of the opinion that the share price drop this am was not due to some fundamental problem that has been identified with Iofina, but I could be wrong. We have had a short selling attack which has resulted in a lot of "leveraged" buys being forced sales as the price plummeted. You may want to sell out. It is of course possible that there is some bad news that the Company is hiding although it has issued an RNS saying it knows no reason for the share price fall but I tend to believe the management here.

I attended the AGM on Wednesday last week.

The trading statement issued prior to the AGM was rather muted and the Chairman at the meeting was quite guarded re projecting great things for the future. Many of the PI's have opined that the Company should have been more bullish with its announcements. I'm now not so sure. Beating your modest forecast is always better then failing to attain your more ambitious one. However the share price has suffered.

The main 2 issues for the Company identified by the Chairman going forward were to secure a fast roll out of the plants and to get in place a capable CEO.

The bottom line of the AGM presentation was some short term short falls in production and extension of plant installation times, but long term nothing has changed. The technology is sound, the process is robust and works well. No one else can currently compete with IOF for the waste brine supply contracts/ iodine leases. The IOF process is the only one which currently works and no sign of any competition.

Plant 101 is small. It continues to operate satisfactorily and profitably but it's not a game changer due to lowish iodine content (50 ppm) in the brine and hence output at only 50tpa. The brine is delivered by road tankers from wells with variable iodine content and it is low in temperature, making production yields lower than IO2.

The purchase of the 102 site this time last year from a failed iodine producer was an inspired move. IOF were able to acquire the plant located in a relatively high iodine hot spot, with piped delivery of brine, plus the iodine leases for peanuts. They have since put in their own kit, sorted out the process bugs and it's operating very efficiently if not yet at optimum output.

Iodine production level (IO1 plus IO2 in the second quarter at 650 kgs/day will be below the levels anticipated when I went to the investor presentation in May. This was because first, production of oil was held back from the wells supplying brine to IO2 as a result of the tornadoes and heavy rain which happened in Oklahoma in May/June and second because brine sources from new wells (supposedly with higher iodine content) have not yet come on stream to feed into IO2 as quickly as expected. At present brine supply to IO2 is about 18000 b/day versus capacity 30,000 b/day. It was said at the AGM that the new sources of brine could be hooked up and arrive "any day."

Installation of Plant 103 has just commenced but is not now expected to be installed and ready to commissioning until late September against a previous estimate of mid August. IO4 is said to be following 4 weeks behind. IO4 will be GRP (supplied form USA) rather than titanium (supplied from Ukraine)

So these delays mean less iodine production in 2013 that some may have been forecasting.

In its "official" announcements, IOF advise each of the new plants should produce about 250tpa based on 30,000 barrels/day throughput about 200ppm Iodine in the waste brine. However the "grapevine" suggests that IO3 is to be located on a site where there are very high iodine levels in the brine and therefore much higher output might be expected. IO2 and IO3 and possibly IO4 are located in close proximity (but not the same site). Based on past experience there have been slippages on start up dates and production builds so IHMO late Sept commissioning may see some further slippage. Mid States, the oil producer whose oil wells supply IO2 and IO3 has a program to drill many more wells and produce more oil in the Mississippi Lime area, which is where IOF is concentrating its efforts to secure the leases and supply contracts.

IOf's plan to look at the case for bigger plants (60,000 b/d) suggests there are some sizable volume iodine concentration hot spots. They also plan to have at least 1 mobile mini plant which would be designed to process small volumes of exceptionally high iodine content brine at identified small output wells.

Plants IO5 and IO6 are projected to both be installed by the year end and were said to be on the point of being ordered. The lead times for these plants should be shortened as they will be made in the USA from GRP (plastic) rather than in the Ukraine (in titanium)

IOF might therefore forecast that by early 2014 their production will be in excess of 1000tpa iodine. IOF then plan to install between 8 and 12 plant per year from 2014 (so maybe an extra 2-3000tpa per annum capacity. Profit margin per tonne of Iodine $40,000/tonne.

One thing that I've concluded is that the Iofina business model (tying up the leases for iodine extraction with the landowners and the oil producers and choosing the location of their plants to areas next to the SDW (salt water disposal wells) which can receive hot brine via pipelines with high iodine content is very sound. IOf's production cost is so much lower than mining in Chile (maybe 1/3 of operating cost and lower capex) that their competitive advantage is enormous. However given that the Oil Companies' main priority is oil production (or drilling for oil for future production) and brine is a waste product for them, short term supply volume of brine flows and iodine concentrations may vary and this should be taken into account when assessing how much each plant is able to produce annually. It is a useful earner for the Oil Companies, who get a royalty but not no 1 priority.

The thing that will increase confidence are

(a) an RNS saying that IO2 plant is hooked up to more brine and output is up
(b) the granting of a lease by the Montana State for the extraction of water (should be mid August)
(c) Positive updates on 103 through 106
(d) Appointment of a competent CEO.

Lack of news on these items will be detrimental.

Cheers

Mike