Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 21/6/2013 11:19

theoy

Very weird. Yes GDL rigs are tied up, and they probably have spare staff. Some rigs being used.

Given that they have 100 wells to drill for sino from mid feb onwards and 32 rigs, how have they got spare rigs.

The test well took 88 days, which takes me back to my point of 4 wells of that nature per year.

4 per rig would be 128 but they started in feb.

Perhaps some are just vertical, and maybe some horizontals not so long.

But then the really strange bit, they already have completed one well and started another but announced it yesterday. ???????

So when did they get the contract and not bother to update the market, when PI's were watching the price fall. I'd have been pretty p'd off as a PI if I'd bailed out at 17/18p recently while they sat on that news.

I haven't read the BB and won't or engage there, I'm all for PI's making money.

However with a misleading rns in jan imo re complete early Q1, and now this contract news, well after they started the contract, and after watching the price fall, what on earth is going on.

I haven't looked to see if someone was loading up while others sold, but jeez, plenty must have been aware of that contract well before the news came out.

In terms of revenues they may do well, who knows, but the rns's stink so far.

Only my opinion of course and I wish the GDL investors good returns. it's not one for me.

[che7win] 21/6/2013 11:18

At times like this, I like to rationalise whether I should buy, sell or hold my investments.

superg - I know my figures are low, deliberately so.

The way I see it, we have 5 plants by year end at an average of 250MT - that will be a run rate of 1300 MT including reprocessing.
P/E of 10, that equals a share price of ~170p

By this time next year, 9 plants should be operational at a run rate of 2300 MT.
P/E of 10, that equals a share price of 310p.

Factor in a reasonable P/E 20 (if the market was in more optimistic mood it should be much higher) and I'm looking at a year end target price of 330p in 2013, moving mid-next year up to 610p and 2014 year end target another few pounds higher.

Simply nuts to sell at this level, so I've bought more. I consider the price cheap, water revenues I'm going to ignore until they arrive next year.

I agree with superg and others that this company will be taken over within 18 months, I also agree with others that management needs to talk up the growth characteristics, otherwise a predator will take us out.

Better to have a high share price to escape unwanted approaches.

[remp31] 21/6/2013 11:11

2mths from now is not mid year.mid year is now and they not exactly shouting from the rooftops.id have thought if they are worried by a takeover next year that booting the share price would be a priorty.

[superg1] 21/6/2013 10:59

SCM bullmine's turn.

High opex family run and falling out between them big time. Opex a big issue so is water. so they are after $15 for a pipeline to the sea.

Trouble is the going rate for just one pipeline with all the pumping stations, 65km and 7000' up is $50m. Try asking Sirocco, they know they have a quote for it but have out off the idea for now.

[n3tleylucas] 21/6/2013 10:57

I was reluctant to pounce on Lib's 'no debt' howler, hoping instead others would correct him. Thanks to those who did. So I won't make a meal of it.

It's not a draw down, it goes straight onto the books. The cash position obviously increases. The debt is $15m plus interest of 6.5% pa. The net debt/cash position is the difference between the total cash and the debt. Simple.

Once the cash position falls below $15m, as you use it, you move into net debt. You then need to start making money fast, or you'll need to raise more.

Stena will no doubt convert their junk to shares if there's a very good premium, therefor clearing that debt.

[titus10] 21/6/2013 10:54

Plasybryn (2797)
"The chart suddenly doesn't look so good".

Depends what you're looking at. If it's arithmetically scaled like those in the header here, recent action being in the upper part of the graph appears much more volatile than, say, a year ago, which is very misleading. All lie's, as SG might say, were he into TA.

Here's the reality. After a bit of twitching, the first up-leg (Wave 1 in Elliott terms) of the present bull market in IOF steadied and took off on 13/12/11, rising smoothly at a rate of a little under 7000% p.a. ( yes - 7,000%!) until 29/2/12 when it consolidated until ~14/6/12 (Wave 2) at a mean rate of -50% p.a.

I see Wave 3 (the second impulse move up) starting on 19/6/12, rising at a more moderate mean rate of 600% p.a. until 19/10/12, when a Key Day Reversal (Bearish Engulfing to candlestick analysts) started the second important consolidation (Wave 4) which lasted until 11/12/12, falling at a mean rate of -67% p.a.

The following day's strong candle on high volume started Wave 5, which I see as rising smoothly until 12/4/13, at a mean rate of ~1440% p.a.

It gapped down the following day on high volume and the subsequent chart action, which includes what Elliott analysts call a 5 Wave Extension to the area just below 250p, prompted a look at other chart indicators for confirmation of at least an intermediate-term top.

That was anticipated in my post 215 on 23/5/12 and then clearly signalled a couple of days later as an Intermediate, or profit-taking Sell within an ongoing major bull market for this share, as suggested in my post, I think.

Should Mr Mannering "suddenly" panic now? I don't think so.

Since the highest intra-day price reached by this share, on 17/5/13 @251.75, it has fallen at a mean rate of -73% p.a. If one takes 12/4/13 as the date the final, impulse Wave 5 started to break up, subsequent action actually shows a mean rise at a rate of 250% p.a.

My view remains as follows:

IOF has recently completed a conventional Elliott Wave intermediate-term bull move from the bottom in Oct 2011 and is now consolidating that, well within the 2.5 Standard Deviations Confidence Lines channeling the main up-trend.

[Edit: Sp would need to fall to ~150p to threaten the lower channel confidence line].

Because this is a significant intermediate pattern completion, it may take a while (or not) for the conventionally-expected ABC chart consolidation to complete. If the tone of discussions on this board is anything to go by, outright price extrapolations are now being leavened by some implementation considerations.

I'm learning that bulletin boards are mainly about mutual support and reinforcement based on news interpretations, so one hesitates to cool it, but whilst I personally have some reservations about the future of this company beyond the fairly short term, the justifications for being (as I am) heavily overweight seem sound enough - and are supported imo by the chart action.

[superg1] 21/6/2013 10:53

Oh by the way IOF have a PR lady joining them soon, I'm just waiting for a date for the handover lol.

I have io3 as $20m plus profit PA from just 20k bpd.

I think the risk factor is so small now on protecting the hot spot, (so many sites sorted), it's time to open up.

I said all among mid year is when it will happen. Lance at the meeting said he expects the radar to ping big time in 2 months.

SQM and co are still unaware of the true picture, but they are now watching as are others.

It seriously impacts others.

Oh by the way SQM if you do read here, check your leases, one mine is stuffed re caliche and is nicking yours. I gonna love it when SQM realise, most iodine producers in Chile are at each others throats.

[diggulden] 21/6/2013 10:47

One thing I wonder about, now that we are in effect a 'iodine producer', will the market expect updates to fundamental differences in production?

For example, IO2 has been RNS'd as approx 250MT per annum. Once the new brine is flowing, surely we can expect an RNS saying IO2 now producing at 400MT per annum, or can they get away with waiting until the Sept trading update?

[superg1] 21/6/2013 10:44

Sky

Not the exact amount, well I could give that for a few days back, but not a lot in real terms compared to what they had.

I haven't mentioned opex yet for io3 and 4.

Who was that poster recently that stumbled across some low figures for iodine sales.

I expect io3 and 4 opex to be below $9 per kg.

Don't think iodine prices when figuring out royalties, there is an old rate they can base it on, that is set for years.

[cityblocs] 21/6/2013 10:44

SCRUTABLE,

For City Index and Barclays:

"The Margin Close Out Level for your Account is 80%. If your Margin Level is at or below the Margin Close Out Level, we may close all or any of your Open Positions immediately and without notice at the next available Our Price."

[worraps] 21/6/2013 10:41

mmmmmm, naughty little spike down there.....more stops triggered?

[ramu kumar] 21/6/2013 10:38

Scrutable, City Index

[worraps] 21/6/2013 10:38

Spot on again, Ansana. It's all a bit 'nudge-nudge, wink-wink', and unless IOF's competitors, and the general market and IIs read this BB, then patience will be needed for at least another 3 months, I feel. I am by nature an IMpatient investor, so I'd really like it if IOF shouted it from the rooftops!

[diggulden] 21/6/2013 10:37

Malachey,

I don't know how long the final approval will take once the public notice period has passed. I would imagine objections are very low, if any at all. I imagine the amount of jobs it will bring to the local area is a massive plus point so can't see any objection.

I would be happy with just the full permit being given approval this year. Would also prefer them to sell off the water side as soon as that happens and concentrate on Iodine rollout.

[ansana] 21/6/2013 10:26

That's the fundamental problem SG is telling us all this but IOF aren't spelling it out. If serious t/o interest will kick in once IO 3/4 are in then at this moment in time the company must be concerned about a cheap t/o offer coming in now. It sounds like IO 3/4 will nail the capability and may be the basis for discussion with some interested parties. With a no news expected and an impression outside of the AGM that they are plugging away and we shouldn't expect much til August and in addition they have lost their CEO then its no surprise the market is deciding a new level for the share. They are doing a good job on making their competitors scratch their heads as well as the general market and many PIs.

It's temporary. To secure share holder value in the long term we have to be patient for a bit longer.

[scrutable] 21/6/2013 10:21

ramu kumar 21 Jun'13 - 09:28 - 2805
joe, you're probably right about margin calls. I was close to my 80% limit
.....................................................................................
ramu - do you care to divulge where you get the 20% tolerance?

I know only of Spreadex who leave you in peace until you get near 20% but they are no longer offering new positions and have retrospectively switched old investors in IOF to 40% initial margin.

IG make large profits by closing your positions without telling you at any time down to 50%, are robotic and have no client relationships worth talking about

GFT - who are still open to new positions at any time - are merciless on large positions and close the lot down same day if you drop below 75%

[bobsworth] 21/6/2013 10:17

malachey

Good Summary on expected news front - thanks for that.

In addition we may also get news on following:-

IO#2 Upgrade with completion of additional bore holes (Significant news).
JV with a trucking company.
Update on mobile pods - design sign off, numbers, timeframe(Very Significant news).
Update on revised North Dakota water rights application.
Offical confirmation of larger plants capable of handling up to 50,000 barrels bbls per day of brine at temperatures in excess of 100 degrees Fahrenheit(Very Significant news).

With reference to IOF#3 and 4 as Iofina have said at AGM "60 days could be achieved" Iam hoping news on commissioning will come mid Aug and mid Sept respectively giving them OCT-DEC to achieve 5 and 6.

[malachey] 21/6/2013 10:12

Thanks for that Dig. So that makes it mid-sept then? Busy, busy sept...

But if we will already see it when it is published wouldn't an rns 45 days later be little more than red tape?? I am assuming that objections are a relatively rare thing.

[diggulden] 21/6/2013 10:05

malachey 21 Jun'13 - 09:47 - 2809 of 2811 1 0

1. MONTANA WATER PERMIT: Is supposed to take no more than 90 days from application. That makes it (IN THEORY) no later than 1ST AUGUST.


My understanding was that up to 90 days was for the preliminary approval. Then it has to be published in a local newspaper for objections for 45 days (which we have visibility of when it happens), then it needs final approval.

Happy to be corrected.

[scrutable] 21/6/2013 10:03

The Librarian 21 Jun'13 - 08:44 - 2799
.................I was wondering what the impact of not buying Iodine is and whether that would kick in this quarter to underpin other costs..

...............................................................................

They are getting $57-63/kg - or paying that same amount to buy in.
The differences must lie in transportation and handling costs, so I asked Dr Fay. He told me the costs saved were insignificant (compared with $50,000/mT)- far less than $1/kg - I imagine less than a few hundred $$$ per mT.

The real advantage must lie in:

1)the quality control and confidence of knowing the exact chemistry of each shipment

2) the opportunity to tweak each spec as it finishes production, and align it to the next chemical process in IOC

3)the time delays saved - knowing exactly when one will receive a shipment

against that you already know there must be some deterioration in cash flow. There are enough 10kg tubs stacked all over the place at IOC for it to worry
Paul C-G non exec (and Head of Bristol based accounting group Brightside)with whom I spoke at length during the AGM after chat.

[skylite] 21/6/2013 09:49

Do we know where we are with the L&G offload?

[malachey] 21/6/2013 09:47

morning all.

Had a look through my notes last night and tried to come up with approx dates for the next few pieces of potentially share price boosting news. Does this sound about right to you lot??

1. MONTANA WATER PERMIT: Is supposed to take no more than 90 days from application. That makes it (IN THEORY) no later than 1ST AUGUST.

2. PATENT FOR IOF TECH: (IN THEORY) No later than 20TH SEPTEMBER. Investors told that this news will be rns'd, so it should cause a little boost to the share price - not sure to what degree though...

IO3 COMMISSIONING: They have stated by Q4, so if they are on schedule then no later than 30TH SEPTEMBER.

IO4 COMMISSIONING: Supposed to follow 30 days after IO3, so that would be no later than 30TH OCTOBER.

Obviously there are IO5 and IO6 to follow this year, but we can fall off that bridge when we get to it.

I have skipped the appointment of a new CEO purely because we(I) have no idea how long that could take, or if the market will like the sound of our new boss. Have also skipped the many other bits and bobs that could come in.


(Please excuse any glaring idiocy on my part - just over a year since I bought my first share and I'm strictly a blue-collar boy, so I'm trying to scale a serious learning curve atm - hopefully without going broke) :-)

malachey.

[naphar] 21/6/2013 09:36

"Water is a side show for now, given cashflow is some way off and it demands the capex for the building of 3 pumping stations.2

Wrong IMO, it demands the capex (and not much) for one pumping station, related to the first contract. Once water starts flowing th rest will easily eb paid for.

In fact, you don't even need to build one station to sell the water side off if that's a road you chose to go down.

[neddo] 21/6/2013 09:35

still here, although I had a wobble or two