Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 20/6/2013 14:31

Io3 started io4 weeks behind.

We always for go for 3 months but I asked and 60 days could be achieved, we'll stick with 3 months.

As for what I heard re what io3, can do WOW. I suspect 4 5 and 6 aren't too much different. The radar screen will explode if they get those on line and up to speed

[anger taxes son] 20/6/2013 14:30

Ansana, are we related?

[ansana] 20/6/2013 14:22

Robo your comment
I think we can forget about IOF coming out from under the radar and launching a great PR campaign to tell the world about what they have. On the contrary, it is clear that they intend to remain under the radar for as long as they possibly can.

I agree hence my comment on the news release.

I told you all a while ago I was a lady so guess who just picked up the IOF PR post. Watch this space.

[superg1] 20/6/2013 14:18

First bit

In Oklahoma an extensive drilling programme is being undertaken in close proximity to IOsorb(TM) IO#2, further restricting brine flow due to temporary closure of producing wells. Production in Q2 2013 is expected to average 700 kilograms per day, with increased production expected from both full flow and additional brine volumes post the drilling campaign.

Extensive drilling confirmed. 27 rigs within sight of io2. Wells take 2 weeks each. Some wells in the area do 5k bpd of brine plus. 27 rigs is going to mean a lot of brine. New brine not the old brine that would have added to io2, New brine = higher ppm I asked.


Well closures so they clearly shut off some old lower ppm brine to get the job done.

I asked how long it would take for the new brine to come to io2, was told it could be days away but may be longer. If each well only takes 2 weeks, the brine will be flying out and they have to inject it, so plenty will be going to the io2 site.


'Production in Q2 2013 is expected to average 700 kilograms per day,'

No alarm there maybe confusing, the paragraph was about io2 and I only had io2 on .75mt anyway.

Writz covered that combined .65 MT per day in April, .85 per day in May.

.7mt per day for Q2 average. I'll assume for now the lower rate of .7 combined.

So for June a drop of .15 per day. Potentially 4.5mt lost for June compared to May is we assume it was the combined total.


I asked why the old brine never featured.

It was an old well on low ppm, and many wells going in. New wells very much higher ppm.

That water said to be days away, so it's not like 3 months off and add a bit for delays.

In theory July could see io2 on much higher bod and ppm, i was happy enough with the first data of .75mt per day off 18.7 k bpd.

Like our spring The US had had unusual weather.

So there is nothing in that paragraph of any concern imo, unless you are worrying about 4.5mt with and intended 1500mt exit rate. ???.

That new brine will kick things on, in the general comments, they said it will go to over 1mt per day.

Personally I think (from research) io2 will go up to an average of 350 ppm or more taking it well over a 450mt unit on 30k bpd.

I can see the confusion, but when you break it down what's the issue.

I know one guy read .7 average for H2 not Q2 as it says.

EDIT

Just saw this

'with increased production expected from both full flow and additional brine volumes post the drilling campaign'

Well as I said I was told days to new brine arriving at the well injection site, but a allow a bit extra so maybe a week or two before io2 goes over 1mt per day.

As for weather OK the US had an unusual spring just like us. Tornado season is more of less over. For 9 months of the year around June time they stop through to Feb.

[che7win] 20/6/2013 14:16

Well, nice entry:

137,200
138,029
274,400

All buys at 196p? Certainly moved the price?

[monts12] 20/6/2013 14:11

Jamonit
FTSE 100 slumps as Bernanke and HSBC deal miners double blow

[bobbyshilling] 20/6/2013 14:09

Roboben,

agreed, I can live with so called slippage, when I know the company is revising/changing decisions for greater overall benefit. It seems that is exactly what is happening here. The market of course do not like any disruption, but of course the benefit to shareholders will come later when the market sees the results of slight short term alterations in company plans. No worries here, in fact I bought a few more this morning at 200p.

[monts12] 20/6/2013 14:05

Some big buys coming through now...

[roboben] 20/6/2013 14:00

I remain happy with my investment.

I won't be drawn into share price projections, nor will I comment further on the buy-out issue. What happens happens and private investors will have no say in it.

The longer IOF remain independent the better in my view but the board don't seem to think they'll see the day when an independent IOF is the world's leading Iodine producer – even though they have the technology and they have the sites. I have a sneaking suspicion that when they say that they're just being realistic.

I will trust them to get the best possible deal for us all. I think they're worthy of that trust.

[edit] Roll on September .. 2014!

[bogg1e] 20/6/2013 14:00

beercap - cheers

[skylite] 20/6/2013 13:58

The BB is lucky indeed to have such notable contributors as Titus and Scrutable. When younger I was often a little afraid of flying and was oft soothed with the thought that someone as dashing and sensible as a pilot wouldn't risk their own skin flying if it wasn't 100% safe, it got me through many a nervous moment. I get the same feeling knowing these two are resolutely behind the Iofina story.

May I have first dibs on them for the Iof quiz team? Along with Sg for all things Iof and 24Ric for his vast knowledge of wine and cider

[roboben] 20/6/2013 13:57

Some comments on "slippage".

It happens.

None of the slippage on the core business was down to incompetence on the part of the company.

IO2 was late going in but the slippage was only weeks and the weather was unusually awful!

The slippage on the connection of the brine supply was purely because a much higher ppm brine supply was coming along but was not ready when IO2 was. It seems to me to be good business decision making to forgo a few months profit at a low level to secure a much higher level of profitability for the life of the plant.

A similar point can be made about the delay in getting IO3 up and running. Had they put it on it's originally planned site it would be up and running now but by re-directing it to OK the level of profitability will be much higher. A few months profit at one level sacrificed to secure a much higher level of profitability for the lifetime of the plant. Good business decision making in my view.

The one area where they "Dropped the ball" (Jeff Ploen's phrase) was with respect to the water rights in ND. (No, I don't know any details.) Whether they can rescue that only time will tell but it is "non-core". As SG says "We don't need water". (Though we have Montana anyway!)

I think we ought to recognise that we're all human and allow them that mistake without making too much fuss, really.

[superg1] 20/6/2013 13:55

Phew

Now I have time to read the rns properly. I can assure you even the iof team thought it was poorly worded and it didn't covey the position well. It's good in some ways that I can digest it post AGM to see how it fits with what was said.

Yes Chris Fay plays things down or rather doesn't commit to solid answers at times.

One has to appreciate there are 27 rigs that can be seem from io2, on a Miss play boom gone mad, in recent weeks and months.

Anyway now to digest the rns in detail as I know what's going on so we'll see how the 'bad wording' fits in.

They are due to employ someone for PR by the way, a lady.

[roboben] 20/6/2013 13:54

OK, I'm now pretty well exhausted from reading all these posts!

I see that there's been plenty posted from the AGM, here are some musings that don't simply repeat what's already been said.

I think we can forget about IOF coming out from under the radar and launching a great PR campaign to tell the world about what they have. On the contrary, it is clear that they intend to remain under the radar for as long as they possibly can.

Chris Fay is much more impressive than I was expecting. I'd heard rumours that he was "past it", a "has-been". Well, I really don't think so. Very competent. On top of his brief. Handled questions well. Very guarded. Very conservative. He could have composed the Investec notes! He told us that the plants pay for themselves in less than a year. (Just an example of how much he wants to underplay things.)

Yes, the Chris at the front was getting exasperated at the determination to underplay things, but I think it's probably best for now.

How long can they stay under the radar? It's difficult to say. Given that it will have taken close to a year to get two plants in and up to speed the development of four more by the end of the year should set alarm bells ringing. (If, indeed, we get four. I won't be surprised if IO6 arrives in January – nor will I see it as a major problem if that's the case.) Will it happen sooner? Some seem to think so, but I reckon the H1 figures published in September won't be sufficiently startling to raise the alarm.

Will the arrival of those four plants trigger a bid?
Will the 2013 figures trigger a bid?
Will the H1 2014 figures trigger a bid?

I think it's likely that we'll see action on that front by next Autumn but that's just my guess.

I'm certainly reassured that my money is invested with a very competent group of people whose integrity I trust and whose interests are aligned with mine. They repeated how delighted they were with the calibre of the young people they were employing. That's encouraging, too!

[ansana] 20/6/2013 13:42

Yes, excellent post, I liked the rocket is on course, we are just making a few corrections.

[diggulden] 20/6/2013 13:31

Great post Titus, thank you for sharing your views.

[writz] 20/6/2013 13:29

Ansana, I also thought it was significant (going by reports of the AGM) how firmly they squashed the suggestion that IOF will become master of the iodine universe. Well, I guess you don't want folks going out and blabbing about it. On the other hand, teething problems aside, it seems pretty clear that a company in possession of the relevant leases, and armed with patents allowing it to halve the opex of most of its competitors, is only going to be held back by the speed at which it can scale up its operation. All the normal caveats applied, of course. Perhaps we should be glad they didn't put together an rns saying they'd been virtually wiped out by a hurricane...

[titus10] 20/6/2013 13:27

Whilst recognising that this BB is perhaps not the best arena for serious chart analysis, a quick review of the indications I see for investors in IOF at this time may be of interest to some, following on from my post 215 on 23rd May.

Using log scaling, which uniquely enables the value of all moves shown on a chart to be compared visually and measurably with each other, the current up-trend or bull market which began around 4/10/2012 shows 3 main impulse up-moves with 2 corrections, completing a conventional 5-wave pattern in Elliott Wave Theory, as anticipated in my earlier post.

What follows is conventionally a period of corrective moves, often seen as a 3-wave pattern (2 down-moves connected by an up-move), as participants review their holdings for various 'reasons', often amidst much dissension and perhaps affected by general market considerations.

So much for Elliott analysis, which is notoriously difficult for most of us to apply in practice.

Items 3 & 4 in my 23 May post anticipated an Intermediate-term Sell signal from my aggregated analysis 'system', which duly came to pass a few days later.

I then inferred that there were likely to be better opportunities ahead for those looking to add to long positions. I mentioned the 7th May 'gap' in the share price (since noted by Coco) and said that I would be helping to fill it if it offered that opportunity. And here we are, folks. Surprise, surprise.

Reverting briefly to the long view: price today has just crossed below the true trend line up from the Oct 11 low - i.e. the regression line through all the daily data since then. So in terms of the current bull market for this share we're bang on course. Just as with a space rocket, course is maintained by a series of corrections and what we're experiencing now is a natural consolidation within a major up-trend, imo.

Short-term, price is becoming 'over-sold' in chartist jargon. As a wise multi-millionaire once responded to a lift attendant's question "what will the market do today, sir?" "Prices will fluctuate". Oversold can become more oversold in the short-term, but an understanding of oscillations bounded by human behaviour patterns favour reversion to the mean.

Fwiw, the 27/2 - 11/6/12 'consolidation' measured -30.8%; 26/10/ - 4/12/12 = -21.5%; 13/5/13 to today = -31.6%.

Anyone who has made a living (as I have) solely from speculation in financial markets for around half a century, might say IOF, stripped of the random noise, is entitled to a breather but remains heading the pack for now, wouldn't you think?

[wayneduncan] 20/6/2013 13:10

Worth also noting that CF said its unlikely they will need the bond for its full term

[ansana] 20/6/2013 13:02

Are they genuinely hopeless at writing news releases or do they feel that they need to get IO3 and 4 out before they are prepared to be more upbeat? If we were not impressed by the wording i assume their competitors would have seen it in a similar way. The board has masses of experience, they will know the impact that differently worded news releases have.

[naphar] 20/6/2013 12:53

Plas, cash position was not discussed in the open session, but may have been on a 1-1 basis afterwards by some, I have no idea.

I don't think they would build all 3 water depots at once, they will need one per approved water application as far as I understand (I know someone has suggested they need 3 for the first application but I don't think that is right). so the question is only really how they fund the first, as the following 2 should be funded from the water revenues of the first.

The water depot cost is not that high, circa $0.5m IIRC, but search the old thread and you will find answers to that.

If it were me, and I had restricted funds, I would choose to delay the build of an IO plant, and use some of that capital to build a water depot, given how quick the payback on the water depot should be (if we sell the first contract water at just $0.50 pb, with costs of $0.10 pb, that's profit of $0.40 * 80000 barrels = $32,000 per day. At that rate, which IMO is very conservative, payback on $0.5m is only 16 days.

Of course we have to see how it pans out, but I am not overly worried about funding the water depots.

[monts12] 20/6/2013 12:49

The whole market's not impressed with the way news has been disseminated, I made a comment about how poorly worded the RNSs have been recently, no positive aspects have been relayed to the market, all imo

[beercapafn] 20/6/2013 12:47

Boogle. I think the short answer is they drop the iodine in to a tall tower and as id fall it goes into small balls like making shot. Suits some manufacturing proccess as it flows better.Cake does not flow. Hope that helps.