Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[ramu kumar] 21/6/2013 09:28

joe, you're probably right about margin calls. I was close to my 80% limit but was fortunate to have funds. Can be unnerving - not everyone can sail close to the wind and sleep soundly!

[superg1] 21/6/2013 09:15

Plas

I wasn't going to post those details in the 240 range as it just causes hype and buying on the highs. But now it's on good prices I see no issue with spelling it out as it is, rather than the cagey view IOF play.

It's quite simple, they are still securing later leases and that's the reason for down playing. Early leases for H2 are done.

[plasybryn] 21/6/2013 09:12

I think the key now is for them to prove they can deliver on the further plants.
It does seem a bit hit and miss to me so far and the dates have been altered.

With Lance no longer really there, the appointment of a new CEO to take control and ensure targets are meet is crucial. It looks to me as though the charts are saying we will see further weakness before these key points are buttoned down.

Water is a side show for now, given cashflow is some way off and it demands the capex for the building of 3 pumping stations.

Just have to keep everything in perspective. Easy to focus on future earnings which are not yet guaranteed I guess.

[superg1] 21/6/2013 09:08

Plas

Best I start the PR and open up an findings I have been sitting on.

Those new brines for io2 that they are waiting for I expect to be over 400ppm.

I asked when the new brines would be due, and was told maybe within days.

They have 27 rigs in around io2, and each well takes 2 weeks to complete, some wells will obviously be ahead of others.

That comment in the rns re .7 for q2 seems pointless, and is.

If they are getting new brines shortly, what was the point of saying that. I think the way the rns was worded has had many contacting IOF, not us guys.

Anyway, so imo if they are to get new brines to io2 in quick time then surely they would need to rns that too.

Io2 was up to 18,700 k bpd, but some stopped, obviously to get the new drill rigs in. that bit of extra they would have got form old wells, I hear would have been 5 times less the ppm of the new brine.

The maths is therefore simple. .7 per day from the brine they were getting for io2 (May figures) 255mt PA (18.7k)

Add in the new brine at 11.3k bpd and io2 is over the 450mt mark. However it sounds like the original brine is being replaced by new brine, so a small percentage tweak up potentially.

As for io4 to 10 they are on these same new brine in that area it seems, so expect units of significant production. I can't see any of them being under 450mt on the full bpd.

As 50k bpd is going to some sites they clearly have the brine.

50k bpd on 400ppm is a 900mt unit with 10% downtime.

Now you know why I say IOF will be gone when io3 and 4 appear producing.

Io2 with the new brine and up to speed will do exactly the same.

Now you know why that it was very clearly said that they will ping on the radar hard in a few months.

So all you really need to look at is io2 new brine io3 and 4, after that we are on the road to a take over imo.

Those 3 based on research at 30k bpd would add 1500mt or more.

The cautious can add some discount if they wish, but I'm not the only one with those details.

Even with discount it's well above what any note or official release says.

Well actually rns's do day it, .... sites of 450mt plus and some abnormally high sites do more.

IOF are concentrating on premium area. The first bit's of info re io2 production confirm it.

[joeblogg2] 21/6/2013 09:05

Tough last few days which has probably caused a few margin calls and in turn some to sell up completely. News on patents or early news on water permits would be welcome to restore a little confidence until IO3/IO4 is up and running

[ramu kumar] 21/6/2013 08:53

Plasybryn,

Re your comment about firm evidence, I think you hit the nail on the head - investor sentiment appears to be volatile.

[the librarian] 21/6/2013 08:44

And a fair point from you upp. I must be more careful in future, although I did mention it for that reason. They are careful with the money and I was wondering what the impact of not buying Iodine is and whether that would kick in this quarter to underpin other costs... that was all :)

[plasybryn] 21/6/2013 08:37

The chart suddenly doesn't look too good. Are investors wanting firm evidence that it can deliver the production numbers. 1#03 full production not until end of 2013.

Obviously the projections look great, but hic-ups in early stages are common.

Any chartists?

[uppompeii] 21/6/2013 08:32

Lib, fair point to the scale, I was just surprised how it read as if you almost brushed it under the carpet especially after the Coro debate. Nothing personal but those of you who are very knowledgeable of IOF have to be absolutely precise otherwise those who are less than positive will have a field day.
The facility is not a projection, or an estimate that can be argued, it's a concrete fact, drawn down or not.
Not criticising you Lib, don't take my surprise the wrong way!
Maybe I'm just a miserable git.

;-)

[ansana] 21/6/2013 08:26

I hope we have an update when IO2 is up to speed. The new PR person is welcome to run it past me first!
Just a thought and an obvious one although IOF are concentrating on production in this high ppm area when they do open up their competitors will still be scratching their heads. Is this a one off, can IOF replicate this in other areas. The share price swinging all over the place, the loss of Lance it's all great cover, so crack on IOF 3,4,5,6 and the first water permit will do for starters in H2.

[superg1] 21/6/2013 08:25

In light of the poorly worded rns, and the info spreading. IO3 is suspected to have ppm's that will make it a 700mt unit

I had got the area down for at least an average 400ppm anyway, that would be a bit higher. Opex is also said to be very low for this coming roll out.

[the librarian] 21/6/2013 08:20

To put it into context, in that post I was looking at other companies who do have big debts and a mountain of shares on the market, didn't realise it was such an emotive subject.

[superg1] 21/6/2013 08:16

H

What have you heard. I'm getting the same figure from a number of sources, I'm just curious as to your numbers.

[meadow2] 21/6/2013 08:15

It's worth remembering that the bond is convertible at £2.06 and the only expense at the moment is the six-monthy interest in arrears. Stena will certainly convert into shares if the price rises above £2.06, which we all expect. If the share price does not reach above £2.06 in the next two years, then the future is uncertain!

[ansana] 21/6/2013 08:14

They have agreed a debt facility.

[superg1] 21/6/2013 08:10

I see Hurricane is back

H Yes I have heard the same, and that's why IOF will ping the radar heavily mid H2 as suggested. If it's right then they won't be able to hide that long.

They said 20k bpd is already going in the injection well where as io3 is being built.

Even on 20k the calculator says it's better than anything reported so far.

I'd say it's getting to the point where IOF should confess to what they have and let investors decide whether they will meet timelines on plants.

We know the tech works, we know the brines are there and we know they have the contracts.

I did push the question at the AGM and a very fluffy answer was given. So fluffy it stood out as an absolute understatement, which I was going to challenge but thought better of it.

The low end figure given was 3 fold out on the actual production figures given for io2 and yields rates. I know, it's a simple reverse calculation.

That imo isn't underplaying it. Sirroco spell out there ppm's and production rates and forecasts.

YEs there are some balls in the air for IOF, but there will come a time very shortly that they will be compelled to open up.

Just like true oil, they are trying to protect what they have found.

They have given us a clue. Some wells are Hyper ppm add that to, 450mt units (30k bpd) and some abnormally high ppm's.

Just think about why IOF are being so cagey but racing to get plants banged in all in a concentrated area. Then wonder why they want to accelerate and took the bond.
Some of those ppm's they mentioned are two a penny all over the place. So why are they holding back on plants to out them in that one area.

It's self explanatory. That's why I have my eyes on the H2 roll out and that's why I think IOF will be on the big company hit list, when what they have got becomes known.

It will be the same re io2 once that new brine is fed in imo that will upgrade.

[the librarian] 21/6/2013 08:04

I thought that you long termers would have worked that one out.... dear, dear.

OK they have no debts on the books other than the draw down that they can make on the bond, have they drawn on it yet, I don't know, it's there if they need to i.e. not something that has been used to date but is there if required. It would be a damn sight different if it had been used up already and they required funding, just a different way of thinking!

[writz] 21/6/2013 07:55

SQM down 5.1% yesterday. Hmmm.

[naphar] 21/6/2013 07:55

IIRC they said at AGM they did not expect to need it the full 2 years, I expect they will use it all/most for a certain term.

It's debt lib, no two ways around it. But it's not mega expensive debt until it comes to the dilution and even then the dilution is quite low.

To say they are debt free though is misleading, and maybe the cause of upp's reaction.

[superg1] 21/6/2013 07:54

Wev can't help what the main market and individual investors do, all we can do is defend our position.

If IOF have 'reasonable oil' across they acreage, then it's likely a sell off of those leases would cover us anyway. The water asset of the low contaminated Atlantis produced water is a big asset too, as it's so close to the Missouri which feeds the Bakken area.

There is also the point of direct supply for any future local action, if they do have oil.

No rush to JV as I have seen many area's grow in value as the land grab reduces acreage available.

The other bonus it that the 3 forks in there area, is half the depth of over in ND.

Of course that side is down the road, and they may or may not have oil.

The big interest for me was the fact it is a high fault area and some may recall I mentioned Brown j burns ( a little oil company) found a small conventional pocket years ago and have well on it in Hill county.

Now it seems in Liberty county True Oil are on something, but they are playing cards close to their chest, and delaying completion reports and the risk of big fines.

Rumours are that they are trying to grab leases.

IOF clearly said at the AGM it's a conventional play. That doesn't mean there is big oil there. All we know right now is that True Oil have found oil and they are being very cagey about what they have found. That sort of reaction is natural as they won't want others all over other acreage they may want to try and grab.

Down the line, but the only reason I revisited that research was due to the 'conventional oil' comment. In other words, vertical wells into a fault area where oil has gathered. This is more or less where the Sweetgrass arch begins, so that supports fault pockets and voids.

Rug I'll PM you.

[peterz] 21/6/2013 07:53

upp - A level of debt which we can use if needed.

[the librarian] 21/6/2013 07:49

Trying to separate the two upp, if they can get away with not using it all they will as mentioned at the AGM. What's the problem bit of an overreaction?

[uppompeii] 21/6/2013 07:40

Librarian "no debt" "just a bond...if needed". Come on! Its debt!

[roboben] 21/6/2013 07:40

Wayne - Yes, I remember the comment about trying to economise here, there and everywhere.