Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[meb123] 16/4/2015 14:03

Could it be Mr Big suddenly realising that he needs the money to make good his promises to UKIP ?

[auphilman] 16/4/2015 13:59

I agree , but is it only one seller.. no holdings info that we know of.. ,

[rhwillcoll] 16/4/2015 13:46

A great RNS yesterday: ticked several boxes. However, looking at L2, there is a determined seller in the market, who has been there for a while. That is what "blocked" the initial quite rapid rise yesterday morning. It is (to me) a simple matter of patience, but not for long. We just wait a short while for the selling to finish. Unlike most companies, IOF has not had any share dilution for several years. There are only 127mn shares in existence. So, when the turnaround comes, it is going to be swift, due to lack of available shares. Certainly when the funds start buying, we'll move up quickly. IMHO.
PS I'd like to know how many IOF shares are freely available in the market: many, or perhaps most, are tightly held by PIs. I'm in that category, but there's a lot of us.

[meb123] 16/4/2015 13:43

I reckon , water aside , the market needs to see concrete evidence of profitability. Sound like they may well be in 2015, but if that is the case, they should have said so. OK production announcement was good but they should have said more - it was a missed opportunity. The share price and investor relations is an important aspect of the Boards work but I feel they are lacking in this respect somewhat .

[odvod] 16/4/2015 13:21

bocker - depends on the selling Incoterms FOB etc

[j4ckster] 16/4/2015 13:19

bocker01.. My thoughts exactly.

[odvod] 16/4/2015 13:18

1.Q1 - it was confirmed - moving from unknown to known category
2. operational progress and bottom line focusing confirmed
3. hint about water permit given as strongly as possible

Which is a reason for re-rating imho

Market situation, strategic review omitted. PR is bad as they could do some without any consequences.

[bocker01] 16/4/2015 13:17

My simple calcs. Chile to India is 60 odd days by sea. Two weeks total both ends inc. at Chile port/ outward customs/Indian devanning/inward customs and assuming the prices are struck two weeks before being shipped to the outbound docks. Prices based on Indian import data would be three months or more out of date and still cover the period in which RB were in the pre-death throes of dying.... dumping their inventory for fast cash.

[meb123] 16/4/2015 13:08

Round-up- there was no reason for the share to fly as yesterday's RNS simply reconfirmed H1 production guidance .

[woodpeckers] 16/4/2015 13:05

This site suggests that they are still paying approx $30/kg for the average size order of 99.5% crude.

[odvod] 16/4/2015 12:28

Iodine price is still dropping

[roundup] 16/4/2015 12:26

So we are back to where we were before the update. One wonders what it would take to bring this share price up to a reasonable level. I'm thinking the price of iodine is not helping.

[odvod] 16/4/2015 12:19

"Funds waiting" did not come. Why as all is being OK imho? Is there any presentation coming that they are waiting for, conference call?

[neddo] 16/4/2015 11:41

if his permits are full of misrepresentations to fool to the montana water bureau people , and they know about it, shouldn't they call Carlisle in and cancel his permits?

[superg1] 16/4/2015 10:29

So you can see from the last post why I'm confident. I put the hours in and found Carlisle's objection to full of false of misleading comments.

He has to back his claims with facts.

The water use facts were in the well survey and that report showed the most efficient wells used water 4 to 5 times of what he was claiming.

I also sent detail of a host of oil companies in the area moving to such completion methods.

One well recently used 340,000 barrels to frac it.

Water use per well has risen rapidly as shown in a post recently. It's not just about drilling, but refracs, maintenance water, dust control and many others uses.

[superg1] 16/4/2015 10:11

Rid

I thought the world was caving in for H1 results, due to the news IOF put out, and it came out with a small loss which was a very nice surprise.

In April/May they starting severe cost cutting, bod salaries slashed, dead wood ousted, costs cut. The talk following that was around $2 mill of savings.

In the CEO interview he said there was $7.5 mill in the bank and rising, so they were cash generative.

They have reported a 35% revenue increase v 2013 and slashed costs. They had a much better H2 in 2014 in the chem div than 2013.

Based on what has been said, it seems likely to me that the H1 loss has been reversed and has probably put them in profit for the year.

Crashing commodity prices including iodine, everyone reporting increased losses and IOF imo about to report a profit.

That's working on the logic of what has been said. They must be close to, or in profit imo

[superg1] 16/4/2015 09:43

Opex now io1 has closed.

Funds always know more than us, but partly because of the presentations in late Sept/early October last year.

The suggestion back then was comfortably under $25 per kg at the production rate at the time, but they have always said they plan to head into the teens.

I was speculating they would close io1. It made sense, close/replace your lowest producing plant and opex drops.

Now the production figures are out we have some numbers to use. I'll use 500mt pa and $25 opex to keep it simple, but if it was below 25 on Q4 production it would be lower on Q1 production due to the increase.

6 plants, 500mt = 83mt per plant.
5 plants, 450mt = 90mt per plant.

The last we knew on io1 was at it's peak it was doing about 50mt per year, but on the recent comment it was probably doing less.

That said they have stated they still expect to hit the 500 rate, I assume through further optimisation.

We have more plants to some and the talk is that they would be on premium sites similar to io2.

I believe io2 is higher than 200mt but using that figure, dropping io1 and introducing a 200mt site changes 25 opex to under 20.

That's on very basic numbers, but due to the low end plants existing, opex numbers can drop dramatically early on.

From comments it seems io5 and 3 are the lower end now, and as they add plants of higher production opex falls further. Then there will be other opex savings due to bulk buying of chemicals and other materials used as the business expands.

So below 20 and into the teens, is well within their grasp imo.

As for Chile low 20's seems to be the best with some currently in the 30's. The 30's is probably going to be the standard for all of them in the next few years.

[ridicule] 16/4/2015 09:20

superg Do you have any inkling of the profit likely to be declared in May? I am slightly unerved by the lack of buying today, given yesterday's RNS.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 15/4/2015 22:51

Off fer a few days mate, see jb fer yer reality check pmsl

[j4ckster] 15/4/2015 22:34

SQM....April 30th formalization hearing is fixed for Patricio Contesse




Translation below....
"April 30 at 10 a.m. the hearing was set for the formalization of the former general manager of Soquimich Patricio Contesse, the lawyer Roberto Guzman Lyon and the executive Luis Saldías Varas,in the framework of the arista SQM Case Penta. For the 20th, at 13:30, meanwhile, was set at the hearing of cautious guarantees only to Patricio Contesse. On Monday, the Public Ministry requested the Eighth Court of Guarantee of Santiago a hearing to formalize the first charged in the Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile. This would be the first formalization to mining executives after the complaint he presented the Internal Revenue Service last march against the legal representatives of SQM, Patricio Solminihac and Patricio Contesse. The team of prosecutors, led by the national prosecutor Sabas Chahuan, expect charged by tax crimes, in the framework of the research by ballots and fraudulent invoices allegedly intended to finance political campaigns. Contesse was dismissed last March 16, after 25 years as general manager. In its replacement, the Board appointed to Patricio Soliminihac."