Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 06/2/2015 15:22

Oh and the main sticking out like a sore thumb point.

The company is backed by the Lundin group, they no longer show the Sirocco mine or RB on their home page map.

The Lundin group are a hugely successful group, with many outstanding achievements.

The chair of Sirocco mining is Lukas Lundin himself.

Oh no, um, hang on a minute ummmmm....... he has disappeared off the BOD, the Sirocco mining BOD tab takes you to RB energy. Hmmmm No Lukas.

The Lundins don't want it, it's a bad apple of what was a perfect bunch.

[superg1] 06/2/2015 15:11

Spike

Thanks for the link. It seems I'm not the only one that has picked up on the negative vibes. The RB team are well known for glossing it up.

In the link it says this

'The firm does not give an estimate for the sale value of RB’s Chilean iodine operations in the email.'

However RB had a full report completed re the iodine mine.

The NPV came out at $156 million, but included the ALP plant and associated equipment which cost about $60 mill. That plant is dead, we said it would die and it's never coming back.

On the NPV they used iodine prices of $45 per kg.

For every $1 +/- on iodine they showed a sensitivity factor of $14 mill.

They include the ALP in it with a production rate of 2,200 mt, they just announced rates of half of that.

They also state - $10 mill for a cost rise of 2.5%.

During the period of the valuation and into next year, minimum wages will be up 25%, and the 7% extra on tax kicks in.

Rb have been selling their iodine under $30. But even at $30 that takes $210 mill off the value using their sensitivity factors (value -$54 mill).

$22 costs have become $26 or more in just 2 quarters. I think the $22 was just BS as at the time they were looking for backers. If we take it as true then costs have gone up by 18%, I suspect 26 will continue it's trend up.

I am told RB sell at a 15% discount to put it through a distributor. So if true and based on costs anyway. I think the iodine mine is still running just to try and present it as a viable business in the car boot sale.

[crosseyed] 06/2/2015 15:04

Re lampricide:

I note that Non-iodine Products added $2.251 million to revenues during FY 2012. Would this have all resulted from lampricide production? If so, would we expect similar revenues in 2014?

The chemical formular for lampricide does not include iodine. Is iodine used in the production process? (One for the chemists, I think)

c

[spike_1] 06/2/2015 12:21

From the other thread:

[kaos3] 06/2/2015 12:01

I bought IOF at 40p after some 5 years of observing. As a commodity buy (money protection) and as a cycle play. With a bonus of a water permit gamble.
Otherwise I am aware that this is a typical Warren Buffet non investment. No profit track record. No dividends. No revenue stability. No management stability. Fierce competition with an oversupply. No brand strength. Patents yes.Loyal customers probably. Currency risks (going for iof atm). The minute iof price will increase production will too so no long term excellent profitability.
But I still bought as I think it is a good buy at this point in the cycle.

[che7win] 06/2/2015 10:13

RB iodine operations may not be worthless, they may be unprofitable right now, but if iodine were to double from here they would make a nice bolt on asset.

It depends on the licence they have for iodine mining and any acquirers time horizon,

Their debt will not be acquired by anyone bidding, whoever lent the money is going to have a near write off IMO.

[superg1] 06/2/2015 10:05

Just to add.

The bidders are not committed to buy the company outright they can put in a bid for any part of it. EG part of the lithium mine etc etc.

So it could turn into a 'car boot' sale.

The iodine mine forecast, should it keep running, is 1100 to 1200mt per year. They were heading for 1600mt in 2013 and had planned to hit 2000mt plus in 2014. That was all halted due to the suspension of their high cost Agitating leach plant. The end opex before that shut down was $41 per kg

When they do their DD and see the current iodine price it's actually worthless.

The NPV report for the mine is based on $45 per kg, and the price sensitivity factors they included in that report, put it at a negative value.

They may wish they had never done that report now.

RB have over $200 mill of debt that someone is have to going to pick up. I think $40 mill is attributed to the iodine mine, which I haven't included when saying it has a negative value.

The reason for the recent court protection was because lump sum payments were due that they couldn't meet.

I note in the monitors report that they concerned about the control of the recent emergency loan of $13 mill.

Not long imo until the end game there.

30th April is the final date, let's see what happens on 27th March, potentially it could all end then.

The RB chart, It is still traded on the OTC market



EDIT

Prior news seemed to suggest they would announce who the qualified bidders are. As I said RB are very much in favour of chest beating at any point, but have released a very low key rns not naming any potential bidders.

I suspect if material bidders were in the process then there would have been some sort of bullish comment, but there is nothing like that.

Some bids may just be for parts of the company as mentioned in the release.

[superg1] 06/2/2015 09:49

An update re RB energy.

Some may have seen it. The cut off date I mentioned recently was 31st Jan.

That was a date for interested parties to show interest, then the relevant party to determine if any could be qualified bidders.

There are a number of qualified bidders and the next stage is the bid process which concludes on 27th March.

Lead bidders are then identified and the court decides if they are reasonable etc.

First the potential bidders will do their DD.

The share price is down 35% since the 31st and down 23% on that news.

It seems the funding option is highly unlikely to appear. Once due diligence is done I doubt there will be many left interested. Private investors have mentally thrown the towel in.

The RB team did not add in any bullish comments at all, and they are normally full of it.

[nellyb] 06/2/2015 09:42

i will ask again - heartwell - have you made any money out of iof's share-price fall?

[trav5] 06/2/2015 09:42

SG,

I agree the comments re cash were promising and if the final results show the cash position has increased it will undoubtedly provide a fillip. However I imagine the market as a whole is sceptical about AIM CEO comments with the of high profile disappointments over the last 12 months hence it had no impact on the share price The important thing here IMO is to get strategic review correct and illustrate the technology can be profitable going forward.

[monkeymagic3] 06/2/2015 09:42

Che7win- be careful what you wish for, we had that before remember.

My only glimmer of hope is that there are only so many combinations of letters and words that can form excuses for this company despite the valiant attempts of many to create new ones.

Perhaps they could try using the Turkish alphabet as there are an extra three letters to use.

[che7win] 06/2/2015 09:29

December fracking above normal levels was due to oil companies wanting to offset the booming profits they made 2014 before year end.

Refreshed broker notes to come, I would welcome a refreshed broker too.

[heartwell] 06/2/2015 09:27

Only people getting the real answers are the inner circle.

Zero institutional support.

Join the dots folks

[heartwell] 06/2/2015 09:04

Oil hits $45, sector gets hit. Including iofina.
Oil rebounds over $50. Sector rebounds. Excluding iofina.

Swiss franc SB losses. Only hits iofina according to superg

No review by iofina in 2014, because they want to concentrate on modifications of existing plants.

No review by iofina by 1st week of feb 2015, because of oil price instability

No review by iofina end of March 2015, because of ...........

[heartwell] 06/2/2015 08:50

Bobsworth, the delayed plans won't be announced in February.

Management won't tell you why.

Get ready for sub 25p next week.

[heartwell] 06/2/2015 08:47

I've been proved right about the shareprice.

This quote is from the company "1000s of brine samples"

But no new iodine plants built for over 8 months

The management aren't tell you mugs the truth.

Sub 25p by the end of next week

[bobsworth] 06/2/2015 08:39

Looking forward to their 2015 growth plan highlighting the rollout of their low Capex and Opex mobile pods that can target their rich ppm sites with the ability to move on in the event of a brine supply interruption.

[trav5] 06/2/2015 08:38

Nap, I do agree they could be profitable in H2 my 1st post was an observation really as to why the share price was so low. But without knowing the operating costs it is difficult to call. Although my position is much reduced here I do believe my original reasons for investing are intact patented technology, a growing market for the product. But to expand further the company must be positive it can sell the excess competively on the open market in summary they must prove they can montise the technology. I do agree with SG that is currently a harsh market for AIM companies not producing a profit and it has not been helped by a host of large AIM companies failing to deliver QPP, MONI, BLINk and BLUR to name a few. IOF is also probably seen as linked to the fall in the oil price by some so there is currently a lot of negative sentiment out there. However, fingers crossed for a positive outcome to the water to kick start an upbeat 2015 going forward.

[nellyb] 06/2/2015 08:38

heartwell, have you made any money out of the share-price fall.

[heartwell] 06/2/2015 08:37

Tom and Lance have strung you muppets along. There will be no iodine review.
There will be no new plants in 2015.

Is takes 8 months to build a new operational plant.

This is a now a water business hanging on a legal challenge those decision in many months away.

[iofra] 06/2/2015 08:35

woody re:lampricide sales
Yes as pointed out in 2013 there was a break in the contract. It continues throughout 2015

so if I have that correct no sales in 2013 but resumed in 2014 and will be in 2015. So what proportion of the 35% revenue increase is simply due to the resumption of lampricide sales.

[j4ckster] 06/2/2015 08:34

RB Energy presses on with sale of iodine, lithium, facilities
By Siobhan Lismore-Scott
Published: Thursday, 05 February 2015

While there are no assurances that RB Energy will find a buyer for its facilities, the fact that it has received some expressions of interest could mean that a larger producer is looking to expand supply, or there could be a new lithium or iodine player on the market soon.

Beleaguered lithium and iodine junior RB Energy today said that it has received a number of non-binding offers for its production operations, which will now move to a bidding process.

"The company received a number of letters of intentions and, with its advisors, has reviewed these non-binding proposals....

[heartwell] 06/2/2015 08:30

'quote "1000s of samples" has turned into paralysis by the BOD. There is a reason why they haven't built any plants for nearly 8 months.'

Newsflash

Not a expandable business. They are reached maximum growth in IOChem?

Is that the real reason no expansion or review has taken place, and won't until after the water legal process ?