Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 05/2/2015 15:03

SG did the $7.5 mil include Arron Banks loan or solely based on cash generated from sales? Thanks.

[superg1] 05/2/2015 14:58

And they aren't shorting either Brucie ask then for the short chart it's just some weird stalking thing on that happens on 100's of threads.

Finance thread trolls nothing more.

I take it that when they are active they are sweating. As I said some time back a fund guy took a chunk lower but short. It appears 800k shares short still need to close.

I know that, they know that, and the last thing they want is a water permit issued , a strategic review update or the year end results, which we know will show record sales, revenue increases of 35% and reduced costs in H2, with more than enough cash in the bank.

[rhwillcoll] 05/2/2015 14:52

superg1: great posts: thank you. "I use filter" is a great line. Me too,
I can smell that coffee trolley coming our way very soon.

[superg1] 05/2/2015 14:46

Brucie

As I said on that one. If the lenders had them over a barrel why did they re-negotiate and extend the deal.

The actual stena representative is a very nice fella, (just mentioning it because he is)

[superg1] 05/2/2015 14:44

Brucie

I believe that guy is escapefromhome who used to post here, he could be heartwell too.

Strange bunch. I did post about tentative before I'll look it up.

Just ignore them they are just trolls, the definition of which is



'In Internet slang, a troll (/ˈtroʊl/, /ˈtrɒl/) is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people,[1] by posting inflammatory,[2] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[3] or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion'

Does that description ring any bells?

I use filter.

The facts are available in news and interviews. I see one interview with some good points in has been viewed 65 times. 64 of those are probably by me, and 1 by Tom, yet 100's are invested and follow threads.

EDIT

See those votes down, one of those is escape under his blue name. Come on escape post under your real ID.

[superg1] 05/2/2015 14:39

A couple of quotes.

Oct 3rd 2014

'Our cash position month over month is increasing'

"We are sitting on a cash position today of about $7.5 mill"

We have a list of higher ppm higher bpd sites been evaluated as part of the strategic review.

Brucie does that help re facts, rather than waffle you may read elsewhere (if that is the topic discussed).

[brucie5] 05/2/2015 14:35

Excellent work superg. In light of which, could you address this point made on ii by 'tentative predator', re. debt:

"All this means the actual numbers are on a knife edge here. Good management can turn this into a sufficiently profitable company to fund paying the $20m debt sufficiently that it can be refinanced. That's the key issue for 2015. If by the end of 2015 the $20m isn't refinanced, then 2016 will likely be a disaster - when you try to refinance with 1 year left all the lenders know they have you over a barrel and the terms get really bad, assuming they'll consider you at all."

Thanks. And I hope I'm asking these idiot questions not just on my own behalf..

[superg1] 05/2/2015 14:30

Iofra

Yes as pointed out in 2013 there was a break in the contract. It continues throughout 2015

[iofra] 05/2/2015 14:26

Is any proportion of last years revenue due to lampricide sale rather than iodine products.

[superg1] 05/2/2015 14:16

Naph

Yes your expertise area.

With the point being cash in the bank seems to be going up not down hence I asked the poster to show what facts and figures they are working off.

IE, for the diligent there are some pointers.

Aug 2014 they said they had near record revenues of $2.7 mill in July.

SG&A costs rose for H1 2014 mainly due to the muppet show bringing in a load of dead-wood middle management, which the new team then ousted.

April io1 to 3 profitable.

May Profitable ebita and net profit. Near record sales.

June As May.

August near record revenues of $2.7 mill.

Interims $13 mill revenue.cash $6.27 mill

Chem div expected to surpass revenue of Q1 to Q3 in 2013 ($18.9m)

Oct they said in Excess of $20 mill had been reached by the end of Q3.

H1 13m + 2.7? + 2.7 (announced) means at least $1.5 mill plus for August.

Recent announcement

Furthermore, the Board expects overall Revenue in 2014 to be over 35% higher than 2013 Revenue.

18.93 x 1.35 = $ 25.6m plus a bit as in the comment.


H2 13 revenue about $7.4 mill H2 2014 about $13 mill, a $5.6 mill increase.

June comment and backed up in comments to funds since.

The Company’s focus to reduce supply chain operational expenditure through all areas of operation is being reflected in considerable savings on a daily basis. While these reductions have been significant, work is still ongoing to fully realise a smooth supply chain management resulting in lower production cash cost.

So costs will be lower in H2 but the revenue more or less the same as H1.

Early October Tom Becker in an interview says there is $7.5 mill in the bank

[naphar] 05/2/2015 13:01

Sg
"As I understand it $7.5 m was with some receivables due it which would have out the figure higher towards the $9m/$10m mark."

Thats potentially a misleading comment. A company will always have receivables due, just as they will always have payables and inventories. Cash is cash, the other stuff muddies the water. If they had $7.5m cash with $2.5m due in receivables, they may have had $2m due as payables, so that $9-10m cash comment isn't worth much.

However, given the full year sales growth, I expect they reduced inventories towards the end of year (especially with december issues), receivables may be the same kind of level as end June, and what with the reduced H2 costs and cash increase to October, I am expecting $9-10m cash at end December maybe. So the same numbers you put forward, but a different time horizon and for very different reasons. Very healthy if that is the case.

[bobbyshilling] 05/2/2015 12:43

The company cannot report any news if there is none. Soon though, we should receive water permit news - and in this connection the possibility of a JV, a forward plan - and in this connection the progress and deployment plans for mobile units.

As long as the current IOs are still producing, then no problems, just a waiting game. News could still come at any time about any of the above.

[superg1] 05/2/2015 12:34

Naphar

As I understand it $7.5 m was with some receivables due it which would have put the figure higher towards the $9m/$10m mark.

Personally when going on last years sales I didn't expect sales to be as high as they were in Q4 giving the overall 35%+ increase.

They dumped the expensive generator at io5 too.

I'll have a look at what they said.

[brucie5] 05/2/2015 12:31

Which is what I mean... Lack of clarity, aimho.

[naphar] 05/2/2015 12:27

He can't explain with facts and figures SG, because as usual, we don't have any yet for FY 2014.

Personally I suspect H2 was at least breakeven, maybe profitable enough for FY to show from a small loss to possibly a small profit.

The cash increase to $7.5m is an indicator, but could be misleading, they may have just reduced inventories and/or collected receivables quicker than usual or that were possibly long overdue.

Their focus on cost reduction bodes well though. It just depends on how much that counters poor brine flows etc.

[superg1] 05/2/2015 12:12

Trav

Re

The bottom line is IOF is still not making money and I suspect 2014 will show another loss'

Can you expand on that, a one liner isn't much use.

They have had far less expense in H2 and reported they were slashing costs for H2, some months were reported as profitable.
Going on those old comments it sounds as if Q4 would have been profitable.

I thought the cash in the bank going up not down is an indicator.

So please do explain with some facts and figures

[superg1] 05/2/2015 12:06

Cross

Re the plants, tower delays were part of it, but then when they were complete, numpty nuts had gone on holiday and forgot to apply for a DEA production permit.

All iodine production needs certifying by the DEA as iodine is used in the manufacture of the the drug Meth.

So the following weeks and months that some stood idle was waiting for the DEA visit and then issue of a permit, which has to be in the producers physical possession issue by DEA HQ. A nod post site visit isn't sufficient to start up.

The details are in the admission document.

[superg1] 05/2/2015 11:59

Brucie

I can point to countless reports on various websites where the world was supposed to end many times over.

Plus some even more ridiculous claims by the top experts that Gold was going to go through $3000 per oz in that gold price surge.

I haven't the slightest interest in what Macca says. Tell him to pop to the AGM and raise his concerns.

If you categorically prove he is wrong on something, he will just ignore that topic and start another.

If anyone has concern about what he says and their investment then sell, but I suggest all do their own research.

Re profitability they could well be profitable now based on what they released recently.

[brucie5] 05/2/2015 11:47

Looks very much like a low to me, and likely to be among the best points of entry. But uncertainty around profitability of the business model is very understandably keeping the buyers out.

[senden11] 05/2/2015 11:42

How many times have I thought that "today's price will not be seen again"? Again and again and abloodygain!!! Yes rogerbridge, I note the if clause and I would very much like to agree with you on that basis!!

[rogerbridge] 05/2/2015 11:28

I agree with your last paragraph crosseyed, consistent brine, but along with a high ppm concentration of iodine.
It is the key, should Tom and Lance decide on another fixed installation.

I would hope that a new IOSorb plant could be up and running within 6 months.
The board have certainly had the time to plan, weed out previous unreliable suppliers and the recent low oil price could have left suppliers for towers etc a little short of work. The low price oil situation could help to reduce the capital cost, but whether the board will disclose that figure, I would not know, maybe it's better to keep the competition in the dark.

In two minds whether to buy more or wait for the water news. I do not see a downside from here, but if there were a delay in the water, it may be a few pence cheaper for a day or two. On the other hand if the water news is as expected, today's price will not be seen again.

[crosseyed] 05/2/2015 11:05

Somebody raised the question of how long it takes to develop a new IOSorb plant. As best as I can tell, these are the times taken for the last three:

Plant Start Prodn Duration
IO#4 Oct13 Apr14 6 mths
IO#5 Oct13 Jul14 9 mths (but very little produced in Jul14)
IO#6 Oct13 Aug14 10 mths

Extenuating circumstances could be cited for delays but is that not ever the case? Perhaps 9 months would be a conservative estimate. I estimate from annual and interim reports of capital spending that the capital cost per IOSorb plant is about $3.5 million [edit-correction]. The Mini-IOSorb units would be somewhat less ($850,000 each - that's a guess?) though their production still requires further processing using the spare capacity of a larger plant.

Actually, regarding the $20/kg target for opex, that is readily attainable from the existing plants were their design capacity to be anywhere near achieved. Higher and consistent throughput of brine would be a good start. Hopefully the IOF team will have more success to report there.

c

[brucie5] 05/2/2015 10:37

super, could you give the dull witted among us (me) a little more clarity re. our timeline to profitability? How and approximately when? Maca is apparently having a field day on the other thread, and in as much as his concerns have not yet been countered in the share price, they go unanswered. Thanks.

[superg1] 05/2/2015 10:25

Don't worry about post 29401, I suspect 99% of those reading it haven't a clue what it means.

[superg1] 05/2/2015 10:14

Brucie I'm watching for that block seller. I have noted a trend of between 10am and 12 then end of day sometimes.