Investec Share Discussion Threads

[theprovosts] 19/3/2021 15:15

Been looking into this stock a bit. Any idea why the last paragraph of the latest RNS today states:

"Investec's current market capitalisation is approximately £2.4 billion."

The market cap according to my data states its £1.43bn. Very large discount to NAV here but am i missing something?

Thanks

[a_game] 19/3/2021 10:23

not quite sure why such a big drop, added some more

[a_game] 19/3/2021 09:06

a good update on the whole! We're trading at a crazy discount to NAV

[saltaire111] 19/3/2021 08:59

The only negative thing I see is the currency situation. Hedging is expensive and the pound has moved a lot in the last six months.

Salty.

[boozey] 19/3/2021 07:52

Restoration of Dividend. Still operating at a substantial discount to NAV:

''Net asset value (NAV): NAV per share is expected to increase from 414.3p (FY2020) to between 436p and 465p, while Tangible NAV per share is expected to increase from 377.7p (FY2020) to between 398p and 427p.''

[arja] 14/3/2021 16:08

nice looking chart and might mover higher to results day on friday I think.

[boozey] 12/3/2021 22:56

Fingers crossed for a positive trading statement next week Cassini. We need this new level to be underpinned by the content of that statement.

[cassini] 12/3/2021 21:47

Boozey,

Thanks for that information.

I guess if Investec retains a 25% stake in N91, that would add to my estimated 330p figure, taking it to roughly 375p, not so very far from the figure you found for tangible NAV in the interims.

Looks like 400p is a distinct possibility then!

[boozey] 12/3/2021 21:23

Also trading statement next week.

[boozey] 12/3/2021 21:08

Cassini, with Asset management companies I simply look at the discount to NAV. In this respect from the interims in November:

''Growth in net asset value: At 30 September 2020, net asset value (NAV) per share increased by 4.6% to 433.5p (31 March 2020: 414.3p) and tangible NAV (TNAV) per share increased by 5.2% to 397.4p (31 March 2020: 377.6p).''

As far as N91 is concerned Investec has a 25% stake.

The South African connection, as you suggest, is in my view the main reason for the stagnation in the share price. This still exists but the situation there is improving which is in turn helping the share price.

[cassini] 12/3/2021 20:01

I don't know that £4 is fair value as Investec spun off N91 in about March 2020 - right in the middle of the waterfall cascade in price caused by COVID. That is why there's no 'step' in the share price at that time - it is masked by the pandemic fall.

The best I've been able to find out is that N91 was about a third of the value of the old Investec - something like that anyway.

So, not so much upside as everyone thinks.

Yes, the market-to-book ratio is cheap but that may be something to do with the South African geopolitical risk, which hasn't gone away.

If we assume 500p as the average price of the old Investec, two-thirds of that is 330p. A very rough and ready calculation I know, if anyone has any better info I'd love to hear it.

[boozey] 12/3/2021 19:39

Yes £4 is fair value, back to pre-pandemic levels and on a par with NAV. Risk/Reward still hugely in favour of reward. It has been a game of patience here.

[cassini] 12/3/2021 15:29

Bought a few more today too but didn't have the money to buy more than a small amount ;0(

[saltaire111] 12/3/2021 15:17

Nice to see the value coming through in the share price.

Long way to go.

I’m buying more.

Salty

[boozey] 09/3/2021 22:40

a_game, let's hope so - still a huge discount to NAV

[a_game] 09/3/2021 21:48

this pushes onto 250p within days now provided main market holds up

[cassini] 08/3/2021 15:36

Nice break above the previous high!

[mo123] 01/3/2021 09:06

Good to see SA covid No's drop dramatically and country goes to level 1.

[xamf] 22/2/2021 09:46

CJD - Thanks for the Bloomberg link. The price to book was the initial draw for me and the fact that we seemed to have made a decisive break above 200. Just hoping this doesn’t drift up to the next trading statement.

[cjd190573] 20/2/2021 23:44

Boozey: quite! mo123: Whatever!
btw Inspector Clouseau - I'll take that!

[boozey] 20/2/2021 10:58

Whatever the debate here the fact of the matter is that the discount to NAV currently makes Investec amongst the best, if not THE BEST, buying opportunity around Asset Management stocks compared to any of its peers.

[mo123] 20/2/2021 10:45

Morning cjd.

I see from your post that you have used selective data, a smattering of hyperbole and an Inspector Clouseau mindset that arrives at a totally illogical conclusion.
I actually bought more shares on Friday morning at 202 around the fib retrace level starting from 185.
Maybe I wasn't clear enough about the statement that "it's all history." I was referring to the fact that it will be a historic cost by the time the final results are published in May. I believe that going forward INVP should have a great future. Mo

[cjd190573] 20/2/2021 00:13

Hi XAMF

I am not ramping but here are two recent independent articles that may help you to reconcile the share price back to reality:-

hxxps://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/share-tips/stockbroker-tips/archive/bofa-says-sell-off-in-investec-not-justified,-reiterates-buy

target='window'>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/s-african-bank-rally-has-legs-as-jpmorgan-sees-payouts-resuming

[cjd190573] 19/2/2021 21:12

Hi mo123,
I apologise in advance if I am barking up the wrong tree but your closing comment today (at 16:28 - just to scare people 90 seconds before the bell) almost has an apocalyptic undertone. On 22 Jan, you say you are 'sold out' (when it's down), then last week you appear to ramp the stock and promote positive material, (when the share is rising). I can't help but feel that you are ruthlessly trading this share and are hoping at the moment, that it goes down a little bit more, (now it is retracing), whilst people are thanking you for your input. I am all for free speech but when people use terminology like ''well it's all history', it is not helpful. There is no profit warning or RNS to support your words and hope fellow readers do their research. Good weekend all.

[mo123] 19/2/2021 16:28

If the hedging costs are shown to be quite low in relation to its de-risked structure book, this will be out of the traps like a whippet. If the costs are quite high, well it's all history.