Investec Share Discussion Threads

[mo123] 19/2/2021 16:28

If the hedging costs are shown to be quite low in relation to its de-risked structure book, this will be out of the traps like a whippet. If the costs are quite high, well it's all history.

[xamf] 19/2/2021 11:17

Thanks Mo123.

[xamf] 19/2/2021 09:44

This may have already been discussed..

Looking at the first half results (to 30 Sept'20) their earnings/share are 11p. They reckon that the second half will be better. Let's assume full year EPS is 23p. That puts the current share price on a PE of 8.82.

Surely this is a no brainer. Even on a conservative PE of say 11, the share price would be 253. That's 25% growth from here plus a healthy dividend along the way.

It's also reassuring to note that their tangible net asset per share value increased 5.2% to 397p. I'd be nervous if profits were expected to fall but here again future earnings show decent growth over the next 3 years.

I am not trying to ramp this - just stating what I can see. This has only recently come under my radar. For all those who know this stock better than me am I missing something here?

[xamf] 18/2/2021 10:40

I agree a_game. Tempted to buy a few more. For me 195 (50 day MA) should provide rock solid support as we've had a recent breakout - I'd be very suprised if we broke below. Just my opinion. Banks are getting hit today amongst others.

What I am trying to get to grasp with is a set of accounts that reflects the Investec bank (after split). Apart from the first half trading statement we're a little in the dark. I assume all previous full year accounts are for the whole group.




free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[a_game] 18/2/2021 10:19

Had a few more this morning.. I see it as a backtest of the breakout

[mo123] 13/2/2021 09:45

Cheers zulu. Actually, it was others pointing out the deep discount in the share price to book value that caught my attention.
Good luck if you (and others) are holding on till finals in May. The company did say that the second half would be better than the first but that was before the SA variant of CV appeared.
Would expect to see a much improved outlook for the co. in 21-2022 with both countries opening up for the recovery trade.
If the rise in the share price continues into next week we could see momentum traders
come in and push it a fair bit higher, well hopefully.

CAPE TOWN – South Africa has secured 9 million doses of the J&J vaccine, with the first consignment of 80,000 vials expected to arrive in the country next week.

[zulu002] 12/2/2021 15:00

Thank you Mo123

[mo123] 11/2/2021 16:35

The South African Rand is a currency that is often correlated to risk and emerging market sentiment. As a result of this, the Rand has seen strong gains in recent weeks as markets become more confident in buying emerging market assets.

Today, the South African Rand is one of the best performing major currencies.
Investors are buying the Rand ahead of a State of the Nation speech from South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa. Markets are cautiously optimistic that Ramaphosa could hint at more government support to help the nation tackle the coronavirus pandemic.

From Currency news

[mo123] 11/2/2021 09:39

Cheers cjd

For those who can't access the article.

Basically banks have lagged since onset of virus but are heavily geared for the reopening trade and SA's recovery in next 6 -18 months.

Sees 30% upside in general for SA banks.
Repayment trends are encouraging.

price-to-book (PTB) for Investec only .32 and an estimted P/E 7.2
Has overweight (O/W) recommendation.

Main risk to recovery is poor vac distribution and possible 2nd wave.

[cjd190573] 11/2/2021 09:01

A bit of positivity - think you might like to see this!

[a_game] 08/2/2021 12:20

taken a few more

[mo123] 08/2/2021 10:39

We appear to be caught in a loop dependant upon the news coming out of SA which is a bit neg this morning.

South Africa's rand fell 0.5%, as its vaccination
programme hit a snag after the government put on hold the use of
AstraZeneca's vaccine.

I suppose there is some uncertainty about a possible shutdown, but once the vac prog gets going again with a more efficacious drug we should see clear sky, well hopefully.

[boozey] 05/2/2021 23:12

Yes I agree, threatened to breakout a couple of weeks ago and then went on a big retrace. Rather volatile for this type of stock. Let's see if it can break out this time round. Certainly massively undervalued compared to NAV.

[a_game] 05/2/2021 21:08

certainly does and a strong close. Fireworks next week perhaps, long overdue!

[its the oxman] 05/2/2021 12:52

Chart looks ready for a good push higher, breaking clear of 200p could be the start.

[mo123] 27/1/2021 09:17

Not too sure but the rise may be a readover from Brewin Dolphin results.

[a_game] 27/1/2021 09:10

Looks like we're still in this 180-200 trading range for now, we will break out soon, NAV discount is just too great

[mo123] 25/1/2021 18:29

Risk off day for financials in general.
Good to see Moderna vaccine effective against SA variant.

[boozey] 22/1/2021 20:56

cjd, I don't get it either - relatively low volume. And huge NAV discount compared to peers which is its main attraction. Nothing happens for no reason in the markets but no idea what that reason may be aside Covid related.

[cjd190573] 22/1/2021 18:57

Hi Boozey, I really do not know what to make of the SA variant. If you go onto any SA news web page, it is certainly not big news, yesterday's top story in SA was the re-introduction of cricket!!. It is already in 20 countries anyway and was discovered long before now. SA are not starting their vaccination programme until next month. Something is puzzling me with this, is it just being heavily day traded/profit taking? and also you are we not seeing the usual afternoon influx of US buyers... just a thought?

[boozey] 22/1/2021 17:39

cjd I agree - I wonder if the retrace is to do with the south african variant of the virus which may not be so effective to the vaccine and that S Africa may be cut off from the world for a while. I can see no other logical explanation.

Note that N91 also went into reverse today despite excellent NAV improvement announced this morning. No coincidence I feel.

[cjd190573] 22/1/2021 17:16

Hi Mo123, the article certainly does support the BoA upgrade at the end of November. I think the key takeaway from this week, is that the share price did hit 206 on Wednesday, so we definitely know it has potential. Hugely disappointing that it has retraced back into the mid sticking range. Let's hope for better news ahead?

[mo123] 22/1/2021 15:21

Was searching around internet looking to see if there was another reason the shares had fallen, but strangely enough could only find this +ve re SA. You can't read the full article as it's subscriber based.
May have to wait until the worst aspects of CV19 are over.



Added a few around 190.

[a_game] 22/1/2021 10:39

well the breakout failed. I suspect as Mo123 said it's due to the mutant. I've shorted IAG this morning for that reason and trimmed some of my hospitality exposure. Maintaining the position here and will look to add if we see 180 region again. No real reason this should sell off heavily