Investec Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 09/9/2014 08:27

9 September 2014

Sale of Kensington Group

Summary

Investec is pleased to announce the sale of its UK intermediated mortgage business Kensington Group plc ("Kensington") together with certain other Investec mortgage assets (the "Transaction Group") to funds managed by Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Advisors L.L.C. ("Blackstone") and TPG Special Situations Partners ("TSSP") for GBP180 million in cash based on a tangible net asset value of the business of GBP165 million at 31 March 2014.

Highlights

-- The transaction supports Investec's strategic objective to simplify and reshape its specialist banking business and substantially reduces the assets within its legacy non-core business.
-- The Transaction Group had gross assets of GBP3.7 billion as at 31 March 2014.

-- On a proforma basis, as at 31 March 2014, it is estimated that upon completion of the transaction, Investec plc's common equity tier 1 ratio will increase by approximately 1%. Taking into account this transaction and the recent sale of Investec Bank (Australia) Limited, the common equity tier 1 ratio of Investec plc is expected to increase from 8.8% at 31 March 2014 to approximately 11.3% and its leverage ratio is expected to increase from 7.4% to about 9.2%.

[bamboo2] 06/9/2014 21:34

Hi Oxy, thanks for the posts. I like how the management are performing here. The deal is taking a while, however, we're prob making reasonable money out of Kensington and Start at the moment, so no hurry! Chart looking strong.

[its the oxman] 05/9/2014 19:55

I guess pre close briefing 18th Sep may be the next news now. Roll on 600p.

[its the oxman] 03/9/2014 11:57

Sep now and still waiting for our news.

[bamboo2] 26/8/2014 08:51

Nice little breakout this morning. Perhaps we'll hear the news this PM.
edit, could this have enough momentum to hit 600, short term? Only had a quick look at chart, but looks promising. If so, it would be tempting to take profit on the approach, as a pull back could follow.

[bamboo2] 22/8/2014 09:16

If the earlier report is correct, it must be today. How much is already in the sp?
I guess it's going to depend on what's included with Kensington. Start Morts also could be there?

Did I see a 'for sale' sign over Coutts while I was on Holiday? would this fit in with the co's move upmarket?

=========================

bbc report on sa economy


Investors in South Africa are preparing for the release of the latest economic figures, which could show that Africa's second largest economy has tipped into a recession.

South Africa was last in recession in 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis. By 2011 it had made a substantial recovery, but now there is a possibility it will slip back.

[its the oxman] 21/8/2014 09:38

Sp looks like it might be anticipating something good. Fingers crossed.

[bamboo2] 21/8/2014 08:40

I'd guess that any announcement would be made while the UK/US/SA markets are open? [ie after lunch]

[bamboo2] 19/8/2014 20:12

Two giants of Wall Street are in advanced talks to acquire Kensington, one of the UK's biggest sub-prime mortgage lenders.

Sky News has learnt that divisions of Blackstone (NYSE: BX - news) and TPG, the US-based private equity groups, are close to securing a takeover of Kensington, which is owned by the Anglo-South African financial services provider Investec (LSE: INVP.L - news) .

The sale of Kensington has not yet been finalised and could yet fall apart, but insiders said a deal was likely to be announced this week.

If completed, it will involve the business being taken over by Blackstone's Tactical Opportunities unit and TPG's TSSP special situations and credit platform.

The two firms are understood to see significant opportunities to grow Kensington's business and are expected to make substantial amounts of capital available for it to do so.

They are said to have lined up a new management team to take the helm once the deal completes.

Investec's £283m takeover of Kensington in the summer of 2007 proved to be an ill-timed foray into the market for sub-prime mortgage lending, coming just as financial markets began to seize up.

Kensington was previously a publicly-listed company whose former chief executives include John Maltby, who is now leading an investment consortium which is buying a stake in 315 Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS.L - news) branches.

Investec, which is the main sponsor of the England cricket team, signalled its intention to sell Kensington in February.

Blackstone and TPG are understood to have seen off competition from at least three other bidders for the business, one of which was said to be Lonestar, a specialist US property investor.

"With the ongoing recovery in mortgage lending and wholesale funding markets we believe that Kensington is now well placed to continue growing and that this growth potential may be better realised under different ownership," Stephen Koseff, chief executive of Investec, said at the start of the auction process.

Analysts say the bank should recoup the majority of its initial outlay, with Kensington's recent performance aided by the strength of the UK housing market.

The auction of Kensington, which is being handled by Fenchurch Advisory, comes amid increasing signs of an overheating housing market in London and the south-east.

Some of the UK's biggest banks have imposed fresh limits on mortgage lending in the capital in recent months.

Blackstone, TPG and Investec declined to comment.

[bamboo2] 04/8/2014 08:18

The historical chart for this time of year often shows a decline, followed by a fairly sharp recovery. AFAIK the Inv h&s pattern is not busted until we fall under the previous downtrend line, but will check.
Interim figures look good. Some strength from the rand or sterling weakness will help the share price here.

[its the oxman] 03/8/2014 23:46

Taking into account we have gone ex div the share price doesn't look too bad. Besides what can one expect given the fall the whole market has just taken this week.

[bamboo2] 01/8/2014 19:09

Stroller, thanks for the insight.
Have a good weekend.

=======================================

01-Aug-14 Deutsche Buy 555.00 555.00 Reiteration
01-Aug-14 Canaccord Genuity Buy 550.00 550.00 Reiteration
01-Aug-14 Numis Securities Hold 517.00 517.00 Reiteration
31-Jul-14 Numis Securities Hold 512.00 512.00 Downgrade
21-Jul-14 Canaccord Genuity Buy 550.00 550.00 Reiteration

Not sure what Numis are saying.

[stroller] 01/8/2014 18:51

Think the "Inverse Head and Shoulder" has a Chip on it

[bamboo2] 31/7/2014 08:55

Investec (comprising Investec plc and Investec Limited) - Interim Management Statement released on 31 July 2014

This Interim Management Statement is issued by Investec in accordance with the UK Listing Authority's Disclosure and Transparency Rules. Unless stated otherwise, key trends and figures highlighted below refer to the three months ended 30 June 2014 and the corresponding period in the previous year.

Performance overview

Wealth & Investment reported strong growth in operating profit. Asset Management reported operating profit marginally ahead of the prior year. Both divisions benefited from higher levels of average funds under management and combined net inflows of GBP3.6 billion. The Specialist Banking business reported a solid increase in operating profit with both the South African and UK businesses showing an improved performance.

Whilst overall group results increased, they have been impacted by the depreciation of the Rand: Pounds Sterling exchange rate of approximately 22% over the period.

Salient features of the three month period to 30 June 2014:

-- Total operating income (excluding depreciation on operating leased assets) is 1% ahead of the prior year. An increase of 11% on a currency neutral basis.

-- Impairment losses on loans and advances decreased by 17%. A decrease of 10% on a currency neutral basis.

-- Operating costs increased by 1% compared to the prior year. An increase of 9% on a currency neutral basis.

-- Operating profit before goodwill, acquired intangibles, non-operating items and taxation and after total non-controlling interests is 10% ahead of the prior year. An increase of 25% on a currency neutral basis.

-- Recurring income as a percentage of total operating income amounted to approximately 78% (2013: 76%), supported by higher average funds under management.

-- Thegroup had approximately GBP8.0 billion of cash and near cash available to support its activities (Investec Limited:R75.3 billion; Investec plc: GBP3.8 billion).

-- Since 31 March 2014 (the end of the group's financial year):

o Third party assets under management increased by 5% to GBP114.9 billion - an increase of 6% on a currency neutral basis.

o Customer accounts (deposits) decreased by 2% to GBP22.3 billion - flat on a currency neutral basis.

o Core loans and advances remained flat at GBP17.2 billion - an increase of 2% on a currency neutral basis.
-- Loans and advances as a percentage of customer deposits were 73.6% (31 March 2014:72.0%).

Strategic review

Investec Bank (Australia) Limited

On 11 April 2014 the group announced that it had entered into an agreement with Bank of Queensland to sell Investec Bank (Australia) Limited's Professional Finance business, Asset Finance and Leasing businesses and its deposit book. All conditions to the sale were met including the group and the buyer obtaining all relevant regulatory approvals for this transaction, and the sale is effective today, 31 July 2014.

Kensington

The potential sale of the group's Kensington business remains on track and further information will be provided in due course.

The group will hold a pre-close briefing on 18 September 2014.

[bamboo2] 28/7/2014 13:29

stroller, there is far more going on here than just the divi.

Management seem intent on stripping out non performing aspects. They have declared their intentions, then followed through with decisive practical action. Furthermore, they have expressed their reluctance to spend on overpriced acquisitions at this time. This is fundamentally what I believe is behind the recovery in the sp, a recovery that has faced a galeforce currency headwind.

The chart potentially shows a long term inverse head and shoulders that targets around 700. I have carefully checked it meets the criteria for an inv h&s and there is a greater than 70% chance of the share price meeting the target.

[stroller] 26/7/2014 17:26

Stocks go up and down based on asset value and profits
you can pull all sorts of shapes and theories from charts depending on the date range you choose
INVP is up at the moment based on the divi

"I can't see this staying range bound for ever, and based on historical info, believe it will breakout of the current range, one way or the other in the short term" = it might go up it might go down


imho

[bamboo2] 25/7/2014 11:00

Investec plc (LON:INVP) has received a consensus rating of "Buy" from the eight brokerages that are presently covering the company, Analyst Ratings News reports. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a hold recommendation and five have assigned a buy recommendation to the company. The average twelve-month price target among brokerages that have updated their coverage on the stock in the last year is GBX 538.16 ($9.20).

Investec plc (LON:INVP) opened at 533.50 on Wednesday. Investec plc has a one year low of GBX 366.20 and a one year high of GBX 544.50. The stock has a 50-day moving average of GBX 528.4 and a 200-day moving average of GBX 482.9. The company's market cap is £4.599 billion.

Several analysts have recently commented on the stock. Analysts at Canaccord Genuity reiterated a "buy" rating on shares of Investec plc in a research note on Monday. They now have a GBX 550 ($9.40) price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at HSBC reiterated a "neutral" rating on shares of Investec plc in a research note on Friday, June 13th. They now have a GBX 570 ($9.74) price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Deutsche Bank reiterated a "buy" rating on shares of Investec plc in a research note on Friday, May 23rd. They now have a GBX 555 ($9.48) price target on the stock.

[bamboo2] 24/7/2014 22:12

I can't see this staying range bound for ever, and based on historical info, believe it will breakout of the current range, one way or the other in the short term.

What's your view?

[stroller] 24/7/2014 18:28

CHART STARTING TO LOOK PRIMED FOR A BREAKOUT !!!!!!!


How's that ?

[bamboo2] 24/7/2014 10:25

Chart starting to look primed for a breakout. Just needs some volume.

[bamboo2] 22/7/2014 16:53

Hi OXMAN, yes agreed. We still waiting for the Kensington news!
Also this goes ex directory any moment.
I still have 610 as an interim target, on our way to 700.

Could be a double bottom on the rand [smaller of two lower charts in the header], which will help.

edit

exd date 30/07/14 pay date 15/08/14 amount 11.0p

[its the oxman] 22/7/2014 16:06

Be good to break through 540p

[its the oxman] 11/7/2014 16:47

Markets rolling over a bit. invp staying strong for now. Bodes well for next push up if it can hold around close to 530p. Still waiting for some newsflow and ex div end of month 11p.

[bamboo2] 04/7/2014 17:03

I think it's possible they've added Start mortgages into the negotiations.
The Dublin property market is showing signs of life, and I think this could turn into a decent sized deal. Not as big as the Australian disposal though.
610 next target.