Ig Design Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 11/2/2008 08:29

Now we know - profit warning leaked. Could possibly see this down to 20p -

[gelp] 09/2/2008 23:12

Puzzle why some directors not buying - lest in close period or some corporate price sensitive activity around. OK so need some liquidity in shares but at this level confident Management must surely be tempted.

Sales recently are pretty small beer and perhaps price is over reaction.

[pugugly] 08/2/2008 16:20

Interesting technical - Price collapsed on higher than normal volume to 40p Now recovered to 48/50 - almost a hammer which on high volume could be said to be a sign of a strong reversal - but do not trust me I have lost too many fingers trying to catch falling knives.

Possibility the company has has expanded too rapidly and there are some black holes in the accounts known to insiders BUT if so why were directers buying last year at many multiples of today's price ?

A gamblers share at this level (imo & dyor) A potential multibagger but could still halve - At one stage today bid was 20p.

Views ? Comments etc.

[gelp] 05/2/2008 13:05

again - lots of very small sales and price through the floor at 60 - can any one throw any light.

[gelp] 17/1/2008 18:29

What's happened? what is the auction stuff? Directors bought sept 07 at 255 and now sub 80. Strange times indeed. Surely without some buying owners may be tempted to MBO - let's hope at the 255 marker at least if indeed. They have over 50% anyway.
If there is any material reason for drop then perhaps we can be told - but the transactions seem minimal.
Have followed progress for years and waited for the chance to buy back in - is this the time to make further buys?
I have no reason not to respect anything the board has done to date. Seems impressive well spread operation with fingers on all the balls. Can anyone tell otherwise?

[gelp] 16/1/2008 16:40

I did not see any tips - a few odd buys - back down below 100 now and i could not resist picking up a few more! 40mil m/c, sales near 200million, not rocket science making crackers(or a good profit) !!

[pugugly] 28/12/2007 13:21

GELP:- Top of the leader board - Has it been tipped somewhere?

[gelp] 28/12/2007 11:52

Looks like some enthusiasm for the stock since Xmas.

[ydderf] 15/12/2007 10:03

its unlikely to be bought while borrowings are rising and future profitability uncertain, the story over the past few years was rising eps, now ended - unless instiutions start buying again, and this is unlikely until the future is clearer, the price could go anywhere.........the divi looks vulnerable too

[gelp] 13/12/2007 07:34

ok we have the interims & all spelled out and already (over) built in the share price?Looks like UK & Latvia/China facilities are being "reviewed" to address margin issue UK greetings area-sign of times. Generally firing on all cylinders other fronts. With mark cap well below N assetts the business element is in for less than nothing. Prudent divi reduction but only from 2.5 to 2 - still decent yield. How long to reduce the costs? I don't know but i guess will be done!

[gelp] 12/12/2007 16:19

As good reason as any for investing - we have all done it - let's see wot results/forward view comes out next few days. strange market generally.
a few others seem massive oversold/underpriced as well.
if Divi is held that will be a plus at these levels.
If market does not recognize potential sitting duck for MBO - or.... though 51%+ in Directors hands.
Does you friend have his house for sale? ---at these prices if a good bet surely he will even put his shirt on it - out of close period of course!

[shavian] 12/12/2007 14:59

Whatever possessed me to invest in this dog at 250p? Stupid answer: I know one of the directors and my daughter was recently at school with the boss's kid. When they all invested it seemed quite reasonable to follow them, despite this sector being way off my usual beaten track of alt energy and nat resources. Fortunately I only dipped a toe. Half of me is looking for an opportunity to average down, but as you say Gelp, this has been a falling knife of late and nobody rings a bell at the bottom! I'm steering clear for now but watching for comment tomorrow, when perhaps we'll all kick ourselves for not doubling up now.

[gelp] 12/12/2007 09:09

In close period but last directors buy in september at 255 expressed confidence in future. now 98
will be interesting to see what happens after results/comment tomorrow.
Unless Xmas is abolished, though Halloween coming up fast on the inside nerves should surely settle. Will be interesting to see if more director buys when out of close period.
I have averaged down to 120 - falling knives maybe - but team has had a good record for many years and the punishment seems harsh but tomorrow will tell!

[sscrabble] 06/12/2007 17:01

well down again - surely this is looking good value - first warning said pre-tax profits would be £17m so they are going to be less than that, but - 'The growing overseas operations, however, are continuing to perform in line with our expectations.' - there are 47m shares - if profits dropped another £5m to £12m thats still eps of 25p, and they are at about nav with the goodwill taken out as well - anyone disagree that they are looking like good value for any reasons?

[pugugly] 05/12/2007 15:29

Bakunin:- Talking to my broker this morning - He was not really able to help but having made a bid for some there was a delay in filling. Make of this what you want - I am told sometimes this means that the MM has no stock on his books but knows of a potetnial seller and has to approach them to see if they will sell at the current price.

From this I read that there could be a willing seller who for some reason wants to unload (even at loss - has not been at this level in the last 5 years)

I suspect that all else is speculation. Given the relative tightness of stock - nms according to Refs is only 100 and not listed on Advfn I cannot see the MM's going short. The only other problem could be that one or more of their recent purchases has proved to be rotten. In which case i have cut my fingers again.

Sorry - cannot be of more help.

[pugugly] 05/12/2007 11:41

Bakunin:> The key is in your last paragraph - but apart from that I agree with you completely - Question (for me) Do I start building a position?? (No need to answer) - There seems to bome bottom fishing going on. BUT also a ready supply of stock at this price.

pS:- You seem to have a very good background to this Company - My only association is that many years ago I bought a slug of stock for FMCG promotioanl activity from a Company they later too over clled, if I remember correctly) Porth? in Wales.

[pugugly] 05/12/2007 09:38

Bakunin:> Your analysis is very much along the same lines as mine. I have not yet quantified how much debt they have taken on in respect of companies purchased and whether the tightening credit market will have a negative here but even if one goes back to 03 they made a pre-tax of £10.9M on a t/o of £114 with an eps of 18.3p (FRS3) so even assuming a eps of say 10p would give a trailing p/e of 12 on possible 07 figures. (Assuming I have done my sums corectly)

At a maket cap of some £55M & t/o of £200M the sales to price rateio is some 27%, which provided the coy is still profitable should be good value.

OR (edited at 10:25) if one assumes some £45M of dept a price to sales ratio of 50% which still is interesting assuming profitable.


Thoughts or comments. (No advice intended - you invest at your own risk etc)

[pugugly] 05/12/2007 07:19

FSA:- But not sure of their address - I have seen it on one of the other threads but not sure which.

Re IGR my worry at the moment is now almost worse than it was before

Their last warning in August reduced profit expectations to £17 million - Current warning has no figure against it, which is concerning as the UK Greetings division is the largest division and post re-organisation seems to cover both the old stationary and Christmas division. again there is no indication of product shortfall by product mix so my worry here is that there could be major over stock problems - There is nothing deader than an unsold Xmas card

As debt up very significantly and a very seasonable business in part it is possible (imo & dyor) that there could be a profit collapse on the "cards". In whcih case the price collapse over the last month which I had thought overdone could be justified and a further fall possible.

It is a concern that nothing was said in the rns about the dividend. Could this be uner threat?

[sscrabble] 04/12/2007 18:38

I hope this gets investigated re the recent price fall - there must have been insider trading - I so nearly got sucked in - its just not right that people can get advance info and trade on it - who do you email your concerns or complaint to ?

[pugugly] 04/12/2007 15:56

Here comes the reason - Diabolical trading statement - Given the relentless fall it appears that someone suspected or possibly knew something - Sorry for all holders - Glad I kept my fingers away (this time) from falling knives.


Intnl Greetings Trading Statement
RNS Number:1579J
International Greetings PLC
04 December 2007

Trading update

International Greetings PLC ("International Greetings" or the "Company"), the
designer, manufacturer and distributor of greetings, stationery and licensed
published products, today announces an update on current trading.

As indicated in the previous trading statement issued by the Company on
23 August 2007, the UK retail climate remains extremely tough. Following a
preliminary assessment of trading in the key September to October period for
the Company, the Board of International Greetings now believes that the results
for the year to 31 March 2008 for the Company as a whole will fall materially
short of current market expectations. This is mainly due to continuing
difficulties with revenues and margins in the Company's UK greetings division.
The growing overseas operations, however, are continuing to perform in line
with our expectations.

The Company will be announcing its interim results for the six month period to
30 September 2007 on 13 December 2007, which will include a further update on
current trading, future prospects and other initiatives.


Further information:

International Greetings plc:
Nick Fisher, Joint Chief Executive Tel: [phone]
Mark Collini, Finance Director

[shavian] 04/12/2007 14:15

Regrettably not.