Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[bricktycoon] 19/3/2018 09:10

I'm right carnage time

[ih_127877] 19/3/2018 08:58

Considering the fact that a lot of the debt was bought and he has stated his belief in Interserve management and business opportunities I would be VERY surprised if this goes to dust... Worst case, therefore, is a heavy D4E, but I suspect a rights issue when its well over 200p..

[aendjo] 19/3/2018 08:06

George - your numbers are consistently incorrect. The emergency funding is reflected in the £513m figure. And to refer to a £42m deficit (trending down, in credit 3 years ago) in a £1b pot as “black hole” is perhaps slightly overstating facts? Muppet time made me lol! Many thanks to brick’s twin - this board reads as a thriller story with funny twists!

[wallywoo] 19/3/2018 08:02

Oh well you will be right at some point brick. Currently up 4%

[brick tycoon] 19/3/2018 07:58

MUPPET TIME-(re Plummet time)

[brick tycoon] 19/3/2018 07:54

MUPPET TIME

[aendjo] 19/3/2018 07:49

Precisely, Fenners. We - the market - are betting spectators at that metaphorical poker table. We have watched Carillion, Toys R Us and Maplin fold as lenders pulled their credit line. My position is IRV has a much stronger hand but as we all have said there is a chance of IRV folding as well. I wish I had a crystal clear certainty about the outcome of negotiations but whilst I have a high conviction this is going to be a recovery story, I will believe when I see it. I have a lot of respect for cc, who would rather wait for some clarity before taking a position - there is wisdom in accepting smaller returns if it means protecting your capital. I should probably invite all those that can’t afford to lose their capital to be equally careful here. Only 9 trading days until the reveal. Good luck all.

[bricktycoon] 19/3/2018 07:43

Plummet time

[fenners66] 18/3/2018 22:05

aendjo - whilst it may seem preferable for the banks to allow a company to ignore the covenant breach and trade out of debt as opposed to other routes - it is clear that the option to take the other routes is exactly why the covenant test is put there in the first place.

As I said it can be seen as a game of chicken - neither side has the perfect hand but someone has to back down or lose.

Clearly we have seen with CLLN , Toys R Us and Maplin recently that banks are prepared to take the "nuclear option" .

It seemed logical with CLLN as they wanted the banks to put in more money and there was no appetite for that.

Question is how much more money does IRV need?

[cfc1] 18/3/2018 19:15

obi - defo! five looks like a plan!

[eodfire] 18/3/2018 19:13

I tell you what brick, if there's "carnage" as you put it, first thing in the morning I will never post again on here. If there isn't "carnage" you never post again. Seem fair? (Just need to quantify "carnage" - 40's?)

[obiwoncanary] 18/3/2018 18:15

Cfc1, I haven’t filtered them as I find their posts entertaining. Good couple of weeks ahead and I look forward to sharing a celebratory beer or 5 once the refinancing has been agreed! All good here

[bricktycoon] 18/3/2018 17:51

Carnage in the morning 5.7 million sells after hours oh dear

[maxidi] 18/3/2018 17:32

The urgency of GEORGE for IRV to fail is sooooo suspect, it flies in the face of genuine concern. He doesn't seem for real to me.

FILTERED .........

[cfc1] 18/3/2018 16:49

obi....i've got 666fen and private george on filter....god knows why they keep posting here. Obviously they think its a lost cause so why on earth do they keep posting all over the weekend LOL
Anyway, who cares ? Not me.
Look forward to annoucements and I'll leave the expert CFOs to advise us LOL again!!!!

[aendjo] 18/3/2018 16:15

Apologies for double posting, addressing Fenner’s point. I think all posters here are or should be familiar with the definition of loan covenant. For those that aren’t, I’ll copy paste from Wikipedia: “A loan covenant is a condition in a commercial loan or bond issue that requires the borrower to fulfill certain conditions or which forbids the borrower from undertaking certain actions, or which possibly restricts certain activities to circumstances when other conditions are met. Typically, violation of a covenant may result in a default on the loan being declared, penalties being applied, or the loan being called. The legal provision in the loan agreement providing for the loan to be "called" is the "Acceleration Clause": once the buyer defaults, all future payments due under the loan are "accelerated" and deemed to be due and payable immediately. Covenants may also be waived, either temporarily or permanently, usually at the sole discretion of the lender.” I should probably refer you back to one of my first posts here, where I outlined the (my) case for investment. Can the bank liquidate the company or call in administrators? Yes, they can. Is it advantageous for them? Probably not, if future earnings of the company are expected to be larger than the liquidated value of its assets. Administration (and even worse, liquidation) are value destroying emergency procedures to recover value from loans offered to insolvent creditors. The best case scenario for banks is for Interserve to continue trading - and perhaps reducing leverage by offsetting non-core assets at a good value (the exact opposite of a fire sale, which is what liquidation entails). Consider that goodwill (i.e. the ability to generate profits/revenue from ongoing trade) would be pretty much wiped if the company goes into administration. I am not saying that the banks are “good” - I’m saying that the most profitable course of action is for Interserve to trade its way out of its overleveraged position.

[aendjo] 18/3/2018 15:58

Perhaps. More importantly, the banter might be mildly entertaining but we should use this platform to share information or insight on the company’s prospects, we all want to make sound investments and make informed decisions about how best allocate our capital. I apologize if I allowed the conversation to get personal, but there’s been a flurry of personal attacks - not on the content or quality of inferences but on personal motives or alleged inferior intelligence of those that disagree with General George. Water under the bridge. May I ask, how did you reach the conclusion that 10p per share debt for equity swap is a realistic scenario? And please note - I am absolutely genuine in asking. If you have a strong case I will sell all at whatever price tomorrow AM.

[general george] 18/3/2018 15:39

You can say what you like, coming from a shameless ramper, it means little.

[eodfire] 18/3/2018 14:48

Agree aendjo, no need to call investors who have decided to go long stupid. Credibility gone. Into the category of common deramper.

[aendjo] 18/3/2018 14:38

I don’t know about people disagreeing with your investment decisions being “stupid”. We might be wrong. Or you might be wrong. We shall see. Either way you come across as a bit of a tool, if I may say so.

[eodfire] 18/3/2018 13:35

Some people might just feel that they are buying into a recovery? I know it's hard for you to believe and difficult to appreciate as you are only interested in looking at a worst case scenario. I am long and still confident of a recovery. If you're into shorting - this was obviously a great short from the 600's, but imo, dangerous at these levels. The professionals are exiting - just look at shorttracker. It'd be a brave person to go against their movement. Looks like they are anticipating positive news ref restructuring and banking covenants?

[general george] 18/3/2018 12:39

D4E at 10p seems a reasonable outcome.

Banks dont want to be burned again after CLLN losses, throw in a vulture fund as Jaknife says, it seems a near certainty.

People ramping this are mad, and those buying off the back of it are plain stupid

[samdb] 18/3/2018 12:15

I'm hoping to see £1.20 again. It will be an excellent place to short from.