Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Interserve LSE:IRV London Ordinary Share GB0001528156 ORD 0.1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.50p -1.43% 34.50p 581,128 16:35:24
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
33.72p 34.48p 36.00p 33.36p 35.00p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Support Services 3,250.80 -244.40 -176.00 51.7

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Date Time Title Posts
16/11/201823:32Interserve - Awaiting A Recovery10,647
15/3/201817:00Interserve - Still Awaiting a Recovery!39
28/1/201813:01Fake news1
17/1/201818:54Fake news1
15/1/201820:38Steady rise...-

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Interserve (IRV) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2018-11-16 18:28:3534.506,1922,136.24O
2018-11-16 17:45:2934.4611,3073,895.83O
2018-11-16 16:53:2933.561,000335.57O
2018-11-16 16:51:5933.8533,22211,245.56O
2018-11-16 16:35:2434.5019,0396,568.46UT
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Interserve (IRV) Top Chat Posts

Interserve Daily Update: Interserve is listed in the Support Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker IRV. The last closing price for Interserve was 35p.
Interserve has a 4 week average price of 28.02p and a 12 week average price of 28.02p.
The 1 year high share price is 125p while the 1 year low share price is currently 28.02p.
There are currently 149,719,938 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 4,427,166 shares. The market capitalisation of Interserve is £51,653,378.61.
fenners66: It is a shame , I will not make a penny , did not short it, but the thing about the stockmarket I have learned , is that share opportunities are like buses there will be another one along in a minute. Just as long as you find a method that works for you. So you can learn as much about the method by researching companies , charts , tea-leaves or whatever as you can with or without betting on it. There is not much that has changed since that March post , time has ticked by and regardless of today's falls the share price is down. There are other shares that are down a lot today - but I do think that the share price fall here in the last few days looks like a smoking gun. In many instances the share price itself does not unduly affect the underlying business so it goes up it goes down so what ? You want the directors to concentrate on running the business. However since DW has already said that the measures planned (not yet delivered) are not enough to shore up the balance sheet - the share price fall has a material effect on the efficacy of a rights issue. So hold off for even longer or get jittery and dump on the shareholders ? She should have announced it with the re-financing after all no-one would know then that they would fail to sell a business before now and the share price was over £1. Instead they were probably discussing recruiting some more directors or a basis for the next bonus ... there are only so many hours in a day after all.... Some said back then she was a great appointment ..... and now ?
windrushg: Irv and others are at the moment suffering a lot of collateral damage from the Brexit 'cat and mouse' talks. Both sides know though that a 'no deal' would be bad all round for both sides. Both sides,know it would be inconceivable for that to be allowed to happen. The pragmatic likelihood is that they will reach a sensible compromise. Hence the recent positive statements over the last weekend that a deal should be signed off by November.I would expect a large retrace in the share price at that time followed by a steady increase from there as positive newsflow on the company's progress on F4G filters through! If all goes to plan,this will probably end up being a multi-bagger! For those reasons,I intend to stay long whatever the short-term share price may be!
cc2014: I'm not sure what to say Aendjo. IRV have gained enough wins in the last three months to ensure their turnover on construction is increasing and whilst it may be too early to get over-excited at the margins, the rest of the construction sector is reporting better margins, so surely even if the margins are weak they will be higher then the contracts they are finishing off now. Also, if you've gots lots of work, it's easier to try and improve your margin than if you don't have enough to feed the beast. Perhaps the city boys and girls are concerned about the direction of travel? Perhaps wins in support services would do more for the share price. Perhaps expanding into construction which is the area where all the losses have come from isn't seen as very clever. What I can add is I am struggling with the market reaction to shares in the construction sector. It doesn't seem to matter what results they report, how upbeat the trading statements, how positive they are about the future, the share prices are struggling over the last 3-4 months. If I look at my favourite construction stock and biggest investment (CTO), the house broker has the following P/E's 2015A 10.6 2016A 7.5 2017A 6.9 2018F 6.4 2019F 5.9 And that's for a company with £22.3m net assets, £5m net cash. The only bug-bear is the pension deficit but with rising bond yields it's going to fall fast. They've nearly halved the P/E in 5 years! and they are still going! So, in order for me to make money the company has had to double it's profits. I'm up on this trade, picked a good one I think, but by all rights I should be looking to retire now, not sitting at this desk bemoaning what brokers are up to. If you are looking at a house broker who keeps reducing the P/E multiple and this is indicative of the whole sector, what can we do? Nothing. Nothing but wait for the profits to flow through. Wait and wait, until the P/E gets so low everything becomes a takeover target. I don''t have the balls of steel you have with your trade but I certainly share your frustration.. Any position in the construction sector is being treated unfairly imho. Housebuilding is to a lesser extent the same. Again what can you do though. With LLOY at 58.4 and AV. at 470 as examples P/E's are getting bashed everywhere. They are even bashing P/E's on stocks which are quoted on LSE but do little business in the UK. It's all gone irrational if you ask me and the market has become very inefficient. We can exploit the inefficiencies but my patience is being tested.
fenners66: They cannot be factored into the price. Until the rights issue details are known it is all guesswork. By way of a (perhaps) more relevant example look at Capita. New CEO announced a rights issue was needed to shore up the balance sheet and the share price halved. Announced that they had a fully underwritten issue and the price and the share price halved again. That issue was taken up - balance sheet strengthened and the company is making real profit - not "underlying " after ignoring all the losses and still the share price is struggling. Here they are making real losses - the need for a rights issue has been around for over a year - but they have not been able to move forward with it. They know they need to make large disposals but again no progress in a long time - if I can work out they are becoming a desperate seller I am sure any potential buyer can do the same. All the while without a reduction in the debt I believe the interest rate rises - with the annual run rate now up to £100million So you can guess its in the price - but how about say a 5:1 at 10p each how would that affect the share price ?
aendjo: To be fair, Jeffian gives good advice. It certainly is more important to probe the robustness of the investment opportunity rather than focusing on speculative pressures on the share price - although the latter may inform optimal timing for entry or exit. I think the two aspects complement each other. On the robustness of the investment opportunity I believe I have put forward my arguments before in quite some detail but to summarise: 1) The services Interserve provides are and will still be essential in 10 years time; 2) There are considerable barriers to entry for new competitors and one of Interserve's biggest competitors recently went out of business; 3) On the bogeyman argument of the Government bringing in-house ousourced services, with the words of Sir Amyas Morse (Comptroller and Auditor General) July 2018 “there are a lot of areas where Government does not have the capacity to do anything else but outsource” and in some parts of government, “the capability of even acting as a prime contractor is not necessarily there”; 4) On margins - this was discussed in some detail in numerous earlier posts - but it is my assessment that Interserve can restore margins close to 5% - something that the company has delivered as recently as 2016 - a "crisis" year; 5) On debt - the company is clearly over leveraged but with EBITDA of 116m in 2017 and EBITDA of 194m in 2016 and the renewed focus on margins it is my assessment that debt is serviceable. Non core disposals and most likely refinancing within the next 18 months are probably going to accelerate the process (debt is too expensive) but not vital. The company is not on the brink of bankruptcy; On how much will the investment "will bring in the foreseeable timeframe": 6) If the above assumptions materialise (and - I'm stating the obvious here - there is clearly no certainty that they will materialise. Risks are spelled out clearly in the company report. These include further liabilities in EfW, construction restructuring costs, a untimely bump up in LIBOR rates). I was saying, if the above assumptions prove to be correct the share price will converge towards intrinsic value; 7) Based on an estimated free cash flow of 35m-50m per year (which is conservative in my opinion), intrinsic value of the stock is 150-180p per share; 8) This compares with an average 114p broker forecasts (nothing very recent, understandably there has been some fence sitting: Liberum 80p 11/6/18, Peel Hunt 140p 1/5/18, Numis 124p 30/4/18, Berenberg 95p 23/3/18, Stifel 130p 22/3/18); 9) Based on low liquidity underpinning the downward trend from 110p and on the magnitude of upwards swings in share price whenever the volume of shares traded per day exceeds 1 million, I foresee a rapid swing in price on any news that would make the above assumptions more likely to materialise. In this context (i.e. evaluating the timeframe) the volume of short positions is relevant. There are probably ballpark 10m share shorted. The maximum upside for the whole community of shorters (company going from 67p to zero) is about 6.7 million GBP. That's an unlikely scenario in my mind. The potential downside is 8.3 - 11.3 million GBP(assuming a retrace towards 150-180p) - much higher if the share trades back to the 52 week high (17.3 million GBP, 240p). 10) In conclusion, I am forecasting a 2x to 3x in a relatively short term (months not years). Either way, I am not a trader but a long term investor so I will happily sit on my shares and see what happens. The above are just my own opinions. I am not a financial adviser. This is a high risk investment. Do your own research. Have fun and be cool.
cc2014: Aendjo, I'happy to be corrected on this but weren't EY, Deliotte etc who were paid £45m for their efforts working for IRV? Certainly auditors do not work for the government, they work for IRV. No lender has the right or ability to employ experts to consider the finances of a company unless covenants are breached. It's not a nice little club where the company, the lenders and the experts all get together, share the information and do a deal over a decent whisky. The company uses all its experts and negotiation skills to get the loan package on the best terms possible. This doesn't mean the plan is robust or achievable, it means IRV have managed to convince the lenders it is, although clearly there must be some considerable substance behind it. Further, one might consider whether the lenders do believe the plan is achievable but where they are as screwed as IRV at the time? The economic term here is "opportunity cost." The best decision is that which maximises the return for the lender even if that return is a loss. Pages 43&44 in the annual accounts which you have referred to on the stress tests are incredibly useful to ascertain the risks involved in this company. They refer to sensitivity analysis and that IRV can withstand 5 out of 6 scenarios but not all 6 at the same time. My concern would be that the tests are interlinked. So, for example a reduction in work in test 1, is also likely to trigger failure of test 5 operating profit and test 6 working capital. Likewise if they fail test 4 insurance claim, they will fail test 6 automatically. Some of the tests seems pretty tight to me. A reduction in operating profit of 10% isn't large, again £25m working capital movement is tiny for a company of this size. That's not to say that even if they fail the tests the share price will fall. It's 63p. Some might argue the risk of failure of these tests is priced in already. Or it might not be. Remember, part of this is about the going concern statement in the accounts which it might be helpful to note only holds a one year time horizon. Finally page 39 shows what will happen over time to the lending terms or rather it only shows us part of the picture. From September 2019 if net leverage remains about 3.0x there'a ratchet increase. How much? We don't know so how can we form a judgement. Or rather I assume if the ratchet increase was small it would be published. The market currently thinks the share are worth 63p. The market is wrong all the time. Markets move on rumour as well as fact. Good luck with your trade.
cc2014: IRV needs to recapitalise. £50m isn't enough. £200m would be. Maybe £100m might be. The bondholders could waive some debt in return for capital. If IRV defaults on it's covenants a discussion might occur then. But bondholders won't take the pain unless shareholders take more. Rights issue. £100m is more than the market cap so it's going to be challenging to get that underwritten unless the price is really low. If IRV doesn't or can't recapitalise it needs to get a wiggle on and dispose of some assets. The longer this takes the more the share price will drift. And that's the conundrum. Bond holders aren't up for waiving the debt, the appetite for a rights issue is lowered as so many of the shares are held by PI's, so we drift slowly downwards until such time as a significant piece of news changes things It's frustrating for shareholders as the drip, drip, drip you can see going on every day. We can all see the pattern, selling all morning, then they drive it up into the close so the selling can start at a higher price then the average trade price for the previous day. The pattern is repeating and repeating and we can see the price is struggling to hold 62.0+. It will carry on until all the buyers at 62+ are exhausted or it's a really bad day on the markets and it gaps down. IRV need to announce another decent disposal...
aendjo: From evidence (11/6/2018) public accounts committee: Chris Evans: I was looking at the weekend, Ms White, at Interserve and especially investor tips, and a number are betting on Interserve’s share price going down. Also, the same people—I think it’s Marshall Wace—hold a large short position on your company at the moment. How concerned are you by the market at the moment, with that sort of news? Debbie White: The Interserve investor portfolio is split roughly into three components. We have Coltrane Asset Management, who have been a long-term shareholder and have added to their shares over this period of time; they own about 27% of the company. We have Farringdon Asset Management, a Dutch-based organisation. It split into two funds recently, and they together own roughly 10%. The remaining 63% is held by retail investors. That is not an investor dynamic that you would want to see in the longer term, because the share price is dependent on very small changes in mood. The share blogs say x, y and z—there is a lot of speculation on the share blogs—and that tends to drive the share price. It is certainly not being driven by our larger investors, or by any new investors coming in. Part of the recovery plan is actually about talking to new investors—the funds you would expect to see owning parts of a UK plc—about joining the shareholder base. I am not that concerned about it, actually. That might sound a bit flippant, but I am not being flippant. The variation is principally driven by retail investors. Our plan is very robust. We announced the first of our disposal sales in the last two weeks, which has brought in a significant amount of cash, and we are on track with the things that we are doing. We have to deliver our recovery plan, and I think the share price will respond accordingly.
cc2014: feileb21 Mar '18 - 15:35 - 8443 of 8452 0 1 0 GG According to the CEO, the reason why d4e is off the agenda until mid 2019 was due to the current low share price and instability of the share. The are looking for more institutional investors (currently only 35%) for less uncertainty in the share price The CEO stated a d4e currently would not stack up financially as the share price is too low - they would not raise enough equity / reduce enough debt. Your post shows you do not know how D4E works. It is not dependent on the share price.
aendjo: Morning everyone. It looks like we’ll have to wait just a little bit longer for the announcement. The shares will continue to trade sideways in the meantime and I would not try to read too much in it. I suspect many holders underestimate the potential upside for the share price if 1) refinancing is agreed and it is not extremely dilutive and 2) if results are in line with trading updates. In my opinion, if Interserve finds a robust financial footing and it becomes clear it is not going bust, it will go back to being traded on fundamentals. A very conservative P/E of 8 takes the share price above 220p (based on market cap = 8 * [41m, projected headline profit]). Projected total operating profit for 2017 is 76m, so if you used that the share price would be in the high 300s. Clearly 300p may seem like a “crazy” upside from the current share price, but I would urge holders to consider the actual value of what they own, so that they can identify the right time to sell (if they buy into the recovery story, clearly). To give you a sense of perspective, the share price was 240p in March 2017, in March 2016 it was 415p... 3 years ago, March 2015, Interserve shares traded at 600p. Three years is a blink of an eye in the life of a global company with a workforce of 80,000. I feel I was extremely lucky to be able to buy a considerable chunk of this at the premium price of 129p. I’m not joking when I say I’m going to sell at no less than 300p.
Interserve share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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