Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Interserve LSE:IRV London Ordinary Share GB0001528156 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -9.50p -11.05% 76.50p 1,712,185 14:00:52
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
76.20p 77.55p 89.50p 75.10p 87.30p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Support Services 3,685.2 -94.1 -71.2 - 110.48

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Date Time Title Posts
19/3/201814:15Interserve - Awaiting A Recovery8,225
15/3/201817:00Interserve - Still Awaiting a Recovery!39
28/1/201813:01Fake news1
17/1/201818:54Fake news1
15/1/201820:38Steady rise...-

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Interserve Daily Update: Interserve is listed in the Support Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker IRV. The last closing price for Interserve was 86p.
Interserve has a 4 week average price of 54.70p and a 12 week average price of 54.70p.
The 1 year high share price is 249.75p while the 1 year low share price is currently 52.75p.
There are currently 144,424,260 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 3,264,029 shares. The market capitalisation of Interserve is £111,206,680.20.
aendjo: Morning everyone. It looks like we’ll have to wait just a little bit longer for the announcement. The shares will continue to trade sideways in the meantime and I would not try to read too much in it. I suspect many holders underestimate the potential upside for the share price if 1) refinancing is agreed and it is not extremely dilutive and 2) if results are in line with trading updates. In my opinion, if Interserve finds a robust financial footing and it becomes clear it is not going bust, it will go back to being traded on fundamentals. A very conservative P/E of 8 takes the share price above 220p (based on market cap = 8 * [41m, projected headline profit]). Projected total operating profit for 2017 is 76m, so if you used that the share price would be in the high 300s. Clearly 300p may seem like a “crazy” upside from the current share price, but I would urge holders to consider the actual value of what they own, so that they can identify the right time to sell (if they buy into the recovery story, clearly). To give you a sense of perspective, the share price was 240p in March 2017, in March 2016 it was 415p... 3 years ago, March 2015, Interserve shares traded at 600p. Three years is a blink of an eye in the life of a global company with a workforce of 80,000. I feel I was extremely lucky to be able to buy a considerable chunk of this at the premium price of 129p. I’m not joking when I say I’m going to sell at no less than 300p.
aendjo: A couple of things. Interserve’s stake in Haymarket was referenced in FY2016 in the investment portfolio as [property, £25.8m]. They finally added 2018 to the financial calendar on the website (no, there’s no date for FY2017 results). Two hedge funds further increased their short positions on Thursday and Friday. This is somewhat surprising for me but it indicates that said funds are convinced the share price will drop. MS built a large long position, indicating they are of the opposite opinion (brokers forecasting a 100% upside from current share price). Either way, expect big swings on announcement. If positive, we’ll be witnessing a historical squeeze. Good luck and see you on Monday!
aendjo: At a conservative estimate of 8%, there are approximately 12m shares shorted. This AM, volume trades of just 0.5m pushed the price up by 10+%. This is to show that any credible whiff of positive news will push the share price up considerably as the shorters scramble to cover their position. Having said that we should refrain from indulging in over enthusiasm as the share price is still close to historic lows... good luck fellow posters of all dispositions!
penman1: I was merely thinking from an employees perspective. When you log onto your computer in the morning the share price is on the internal home page. Its hard to not notice the decline, and a lot of staff have signed up to various share plans, as such a lot of people will take an interest in the share price and in turn to google for answers. This is the first page that comes up. Once on, its hard not to notice the "this is going bust" mantra, albeit from the looks of it by a bot of sorts intent on being top of the page . Like a screaming toddler.. When you read the chat about suppliers not being paid, the company going bust, etc this is not reflective upon the chat within the company. Well from my limited perspective at least. As said previously, hope you all make your ££ and best of luck.
cc2014: The thing is setting aside where the share price will be in a months time, the price action over the last couple of days doesn't look too clever. Yesterdays's rise was not about some piece of news at IRV but short closing read across from PFG where the shorters were on the wrong side of a 75% rise. Forced closing/those just scared. The share price rose from around 56 to 65 but fell back to 60 by the end of the day. The fact it fell back so far isn't great but if you were long over the last couple of days you could have made 10% with reasonable ease. So, today someone sells 467k in one go (and another 467k at 16:21 yesterday) and right now the price is falling. There's a 25k iceberg order walking down the book right now. I haven't really been watching but it's just moved from 57.55 to 57.5 but the trouble is it's struggling to get filled as others keep leapfrogging it. Either way someone is selling. Perhaps those 467k were fake orders and got filled and now someone has to sell 934k to balance their books. Orders that size on the order book are very strange and are usually fake. In this case I wouldn't like to say as I wasn't concentrating very hard this morning and didn't look for other indicators it was fake.
cc2014: Here's my view If the market is right, the share price indicates the company is pretty much screwed. The market isn't always right though and can remain irrational for some time. IRV's issue is that it needs MORE cash, so the bank negotiation isn't about rolling over the existing debts and the banks coming up with high interest rates to compensate. The directors have to persuade the banks that by putting in more money they will see their money back. Now, to further complicate this, it isn't one bank they are dealing with but around 8 banks who will have different priorities. Some may be sitting there willing to lend at base +5, some at base + 7, some may want base +15, perhaps others have hit their risk threshold and won't lend any more under any circumstances. It's the latter point which then becomes a problem as then the others have to stump up more than their fair share or find someone else to replace. Other options to get the cash would be a rights issue but with the market cap now at £85m that won't work as asking exiting shareholders to stump up £200m ish isn't do-able. Debt for equity only writes off the debt so whilst it would reduce the interest bill it doesn't give them any more cash. In order to ease the situation IRV need to sell some assets NOW or be persuasive with the banks that the likely sale value is far higher than the book value. Whatever is going on IRV and the banks need to resolve on an immediate basis as the supply chain are going to look at the share price, get nervous over supplying, start demanding cash up front and then it becomes self-fulfilling.
aendjo: Why do I think that the upside is greater than the downside? Disclaimer: I am an investor and I am long here. I have no insider information and I may be 100% wrong so please do not invest based on the following and do your own research. As Interserve employees move into their brand new Ingenuity House - a purpose-built, state-of-the-art building that showcases the company capabilities - the market values the whole business of Interserve at about £110m. Shares trade today at a discount of more than 90% compared to the £7+ share price of 2014. Is this a value trap or an investment opportunity? THE “TRAP” CASE. With a debt in excess of £500+ and the breach of banking covenants (net debt should be less than 3xEBIDTA) there is a chance of bankruptcy, highly dilutive rights issue and/or punitive refinancing terms that would damage or destroy shareholders value. Bankruptcy is unlikely but not impossible, as painfully demonstrated by the recent demise of Carillion, although differences between the two companies financial state and history are profound. Irrespective from reassurances from the cabinet, literally no-one would benefit from Interserve bankruptcy. Not the government but, more importantly, not the banks. So it is my assessment that Interserve will survive. A rights issue is also not an impossible scenario but in my opinion highly unlikely. A competent Board will not consider a rights issue at a time when the dilution for shareholders would mean at the very least a 1:3 dilution (that would raise 220m, just enough to cover EfW provision; in reality the impact on share price would be such that a more likely dilution would be in the range of 1:5 - 1:10). The case of prohibitive refinancing terms is the most likely but the least worrying in my mind. Banks are going to be rational about this. They have a strong hand and they will want to maximize their returns, so they will milk Interserve as hard as they can but they will want the cow to stay healthy. Long term, interest rates are a concern. However, based on the facts outlined in the following paragraphs, I think that focused asset disposals over the next couple of years will be a distinct opportunity to improve the balance sheet if servicing debt becomes difficult to sustain. At a later date, a rights issue might be a perfectly reasonable plan, if and when the share price is in the £2-£3 range. THE CASE FOR INVESTMENT. My reasoning stands fundamentally on two legs. The first leg is: what am I buying today with 110m if I buy the whole of Interserve? The second leg is: how is the broader economy and political environment going to affect the earning prospects of the company? WHAT AM I BUYING. What does Interserve own? Even if we disregard the entirety of non-current assets on the balance sheet (I am myself highly skeptical and suspicious of liberal use of fudge factors), the history of Interserve reveals recent acquisitions that made me think that even the most incompetent of management could not have squandered so much value. Interserve was born out of the acquisition of RM Douglas by Tilbury in the early 90s. This acquisition included what now is RMDK, a subsidiary delivering by itself approx 50m earnings per year with margins of 25%. The disposal of this subsidiary alone for a money consideration of P/E > 5 would be sufficient to fix the balance sheet. This had been considered as a viable option in 2015 as the company started feeling the pain of Energos going into administration, crippling the Energy from Waste business and slashing earnings in UK construction. I digress, apologies. From the 90s to early 00s, the business developed through acquisitions and disposal, refocusing on support services and becoming Interserve. Acquisitions in the last 10 years alone were worth in excess of £450m (2006 - MacLellan £118m; 2010 - CMC Construction Services £22m; 2012 - Advantage Healthcare £26.5m; 2013 - Oman Construction Company $34.1m; 2014 - Initial Facilities £250m;). As of today, you can buy all of that (clearly it comes with debt attached) for 110m. That is why I see a bargain here. ECONOMY and POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT. How are all of those businesses going to perform in the next few years? One of the implications of Brexit is that the government will need to support internal spending to stabilize the economy in the face of uncertainty regarding foreign trade and financial services. This means infrastructure investment and construction. Relatively recent documents released by the government recognize the need for tendering processes to focus on sustainability of the sector rather than solely on wafer thin margins. That’s all good for Interserve. In terms of support services, toilets in train stations and at the BBC will continue to need cleaning up, although less immigration might mean upward pressure on wages. Further downward pressure on the GBP may improve returns in respect to foreign businesses. The unfortunate demise of Carillion, a large competitor, may further reduce margin pressures. This is a cyclical sector, a return to typical margins of >5% overall must be on the cards (or the whole sector will collapse) - with current revenues that’s earnings >£150m, or a forward P/E of 0.5 For the reasons above, I think the upside is greater than the downside.
dexdringle: "Peel Hunt recently valued Interserve on a sum of the parts basis only at £1.80. Presumably they are proficient in reading a Balance Sheet" Pointless. There isn't a single company where the share price tracks the tangible NAV in the balance sheet: Barclays Bank - Tangible Net Assets per share £3.34. Share price £1.98 Taylor Wimpey - Tangible Net Assets per share £0.88. Share price £1.97 Interserve - Tangible Net Assets per share -£1.18. Share price £1.23 .....etc
cfc1: schofip....agreed...I posted Friday when the share price was up 3 at 1.14 and then suddenly started to fall to 1.1 for no reason and then BANG on Monday. But I think this share price seems to reflect the company going bust and total doomsday which I think is totally overdone. When we get a concrete RNS will real detail I expect this share price to regain a sensible price.
fenners66: Well having said they were on my watchlist for yield and the likelihood the yield is now going to be zero that seems unlikely. Funny I posted the news early on Monday morning and then again I posted at 8.53 on Monday "If the article is true, how can you say it is standard stuff for a concerned "consortium" of lenders to call in EY?" At the time the share price was floating between 106 - 109 The share price now is quoted as 90 cfc1 - "But this is all standard stuff and should be expected." " notice NO major share sales...only smaller rattled investors." Ok you were so right - the news didn't affect the share price at all. Luckily all the real shareholders were able to read reassuring words on a message board and that stopped the rot no one sold. Like I have said - you cannot really predict share price movements minute by minute or day to day, but when the market has time to digest real news - there was an RNS they usually affect sentiment - more likely when its bad. I thought this was bad news and not normal.
Interserve share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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P:40 V: D:20180319 14:19:34