Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Interserve LSE:IRV London Ordinary Share GB0001528156 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -3.20p -4.69% 65.00p 64.90p 65.50p 69.00p 65.00p 68.20p 1,328,140 16:29:59
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Support Services 3,685.2 -94.1 -71.2 - 93.88

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Date Time Title Posts
23/2/201822:05Interserve - Awaiting A Recovery6,707
28/1/201813:01Fake news1
17/1/201818:54Fake news1
15/1/201820:38Steady rise...-
11/1/201819:02Undue pessimism1

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Interserve Daily Update: Interserve is listed in the Support Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker IRV. The last closing price for Interserve was 68.20p.
Interserve has a 4 week average price of 65p and a 12 week average price of 61.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 249.75p while the 1 year low share price is currently 52.75p.
There are currently 144,424,260 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 997,725 shares. The market capitalisation of Interserve is £93,875,769.
dexdringle: ..............Quite. So it is only dilutive if you don't buy the rights shares offered to you. The absolute share price (or offer price of the rights) is irrelevant. Diliution is about what % of the company you (or indeed all current shareholders combined) own after the rights issue (compared to beforehand. If you own a lesser percentage then it has been dilutive. If you don't (own less) then it hasn't been dilutive (regardless of the fact that value of your original holding, assessed I isolation, may have been mullered by the discounted rights price)
aendjo: Why do I think that the upside is greater than the downside? Disclaimer: I am an investor and I am long here. I have no insider information and I may be 100% wrong so please do not invest based on the following and do your own research. As Interserve employees move into their brand new Ingenuity House - a purpose-built, state-of-the-art building that showcases the company capabilities - the market values the whole business of Interserve at about £110m. Shares trade today at a discount of more than 90% compared to the £7+ share price of 2014. Is this a value trap or an investment opportunity? THE “TRAP” CASE. With a debt in excess of £500+ and the breach of banking covenants (net debt should be less than 3xEBIDTA) there is a chance of bankruptcy, highly dilutive rights issue and/or punitive refinancing terms that would damage or destroy shareholders value. Bankruptcy is unlikely but not impossible, as painfully demonstrated by the recent demise of Carillion, although differences between the two companies financial state and history are profound. Irrespective from reassurances from the cabinet, literally no-one would benefit from Interserve bankruptcy. Not the government but, more importantly, not the banks. So it is my assessment that Interserve will survive. A rights issue is also not an impossible scenario but in my opinion highly unlikely. A competent Board will not consider a rights issue at a time when the dilution for shareholders would mean at the very least a 1:3 dilution (that would raise 220m, just enough to cover EfW provision; in reality the impact on share price would be such that a more likely dilution would be in the range of 1:5 - 1:10). The case of prohibitive refinancing terms is the most likely but the least worrying in my mind. Banks are going to be rational about this. They have a strong hand and they will want to maximize their returns, so they will milk Interserve as hard as they can but they will want the cow to stay healthy. Long term, interest rates are a concern. However, based on the facts outlined in the following paragraphs, I think that focused asset disposals over the next couple of years will be a distinct opportunity to improve the balance sheet if servicing debt becomes difficult to sustain. At a later date, a rights issue might be a perfectly reasonable plan, if and when the share price is in the £2-£3 range. THE CASE FOR INVESTMENT. My reasoning stands fundamentally on two legs. The first leg is: what am I buying today with 110m if I buy the whole of Interserve? The second leg is: how is the broader economy and political environment going to affect the earning prospects of the company? WHAT AM I BUYING. What does Interserve own? Even if we disregard the entirety of non-current assets on the balance sheet (I am myself highly skeptical and suspicious of liberal use of fudge factors), the history of Interserve reveals recent acquisitions that made me think that even the most incompetent of management could not have squandered so much value. Interserve was born out of the acquisition of RM Douglas by Tilbury in the early 90s. This acquisition included what now is RMDK, a subsidiary delivering by itself approx 50m earnings per year with margins of 25%. The disposal of this subsidiary alone for a money consideration of P/E > 5 would be sufficient to fix the balance sheet. This had been considered as a viable option in 2015 as the company started feeling the pain of Energos going into administration, crippling the Energy from Waste business and slashing earnings in UK construction. I digress, apologies. From the 90s to early 00s, the business developed through acquisitions and disposal, refocusing on support services and becoming Interserve. Acquisitions in the last 10 years alone were worth in excess of £450m (2006 - MacLellan £118m; 2010 - CMC Construction Services £22m; 2012 - Advantage Healthcare £26.5m; 2013 - Oman Construction Company $34.1m; 2014 - Initial Facilities £250m;). As of today, you can buy all of that (clearly it comes with debt attached) for 110m. That is why I see a bargain here. ECONOMY and POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT. How are all of those businesses going to perform in the next few years? One of the implications of Brexit is that the government will need to support internal spending to stabilize the economy in the face of uncertainty regarding foreign trade and financial services. This means infrastructure investment and construction. Relatively recent documents released by the government recognize the need for tendering processes to focus on sustainability of the sector rather than solely on wafer thin margins. That’s all good for Interserve. In terms of support services, toilets in train stations and at the BBC will continue to need cleaning up, although less immigration might mean upward pressure on wages. Further downward pressure on the GBP may improve returns in respect to foreign businesses. The unfortunate demise of Carillion, a large competitor, may further reduce margin pressures. This is a cyclical sector, a return to typical margins of >5% overall must be on the cards (or the whole sector will collapse) - with current revenues that’s earnings >£150m, or a forward P/E of 0.5 For the reasons above, I think the upside is greater than the downside.
aendjo: Fenners makes good points. I sincerely do not understand why other posters are bitter about it. Comments here do not influence share price and there is nothing inherently unethical about shorting. If the share price drops, it is a buying opportunity for those that believe Interserve owns a range of solid businesses selling at a steep discount. It is a risky investment, for sure, but the upside in my opinion is much greater than the downside. The fact that MW has been reducing their short position in 0.1%s is reassuring... at the same time time cash low is an issue and short positions remain high. This is not about being “pro” or “con” - it’s about allocating capital somewhere that will benefit investors and the wider society. In my case that capital comes from s lifetime of savings, so I appreciate those that post info and constructive reflections. Good luck all.
fenners66: The short positions have increase from 6.92% to 7.41% from 1st Feb However they were at 9.33% on the 10th Jan when the share price hit around 118 So to blame the fall to 74 on a small recent increase in the short position does not stack. The real reason for the share price fall is the same as always there are more sellers than buyers ....
da vinci1: Am sanguine about Interserve. Expect volatile fluctuations on the road to recovery;that's normal. Just Google Interserve share price and select (max) share price chart. It's evident this is a cyclical stock with a periodicity of 5-6 years and entering a rising phase with huge upside potential. This is a happy scenario that also coincides with a much Improving economy.
dexdringle: "Peel Hunt recently valued Interserve on a sum of the parts basis only at £1.80. Presumably they are proficient in reading a Balance Sheet" Pointless. There isn't a single company where the share price tracks the tangible NAV in the balance sheet: Barclays Bank - Tangible Net Assets per share £3.34. Share price £1.98 Taylor Wimpey - Tangible Net Assets per share £0.88. Share price £1.97 Interserve - Tangible Net Assets per share -£1.18. Share price £1.23 .....etc
fenners66: "I had hoped for 80p" because he wants to get his losses back because he believes enough people will buy these on sentiment rather than facts To be fair there are enough people buying Bitcoin and all the experts liken them to tulips. So share price rise could happen but the outcome for the lenders and the business will determine where the share price ends up.
cfc1: schofip....agreed...I posted Friday when the share price was up 3 at 1.14 and then suddenly started to fall to 1.1 for no reason and then BANG on Monday. But I think this share price seems to reflect the company going bust and total doomsday which I think is totally overdone. When we get a concrete RNS will real detail I expect this share price to regain a sensible price.
fenners66: Well having said they were on my watchlist for yield and the likelihood the yield is now going to be zero that seems unlikely. Funny I posted the news early on Monday morning and then again I posted at 8.53 on Monday "If the article is true, how can you say it is standard stuff for a concerned "consortium" of lenders to call in EY?" At the time the share price was floating between 106 - 109 The share price now is quoted as 90 cfc1 - "But this is all standard stuff and should be expected." " notice NO major share sales...only smaller rattled investors." Ok you were so right - the news didn't affect the share price at all. Luckily all the real shareholders were able to read reassuring words on a message board and that stopped the rot no one sold. Like I have said - you cannot really predict share price movements minute by minute or day to day, but when the market has time to digest real news - there was an RNS they usually affect sentiment - more likely when its bad. I thought this was bad news and not normal.
walbrock82: Is Interserve cheap? One valuation measure to use is linking Interserve’s share price with their fundamentals and is called Earnings Power Value (devised by Bruce Greenwald and refine by Phil Oakley). The Earnings Power Value per share (EPV per share) has been rising steadily with minor falls during the financial crisis. In 2016, Interserve EPV per share came to £6.14, while the average share price last year was £3.80. (see My EPV per share forecast for 2017 (using data from their interim results) shows the fundamental value has collapsed to £3.95. Hence, why Interserve’s share price has collapsed. Another measure Using a Warren Buffett’s equation on valuation, this is P/B*P/E < 22.5 signals fair value. For Interserve, it is super undervalued. (see My forecast for 2017, using the following assumptions: headline earnings would fall to £75m, shareholders’ equity of £310m and using market capitalisation of £295.77m. That would make Interserve cheaper than during the financial crisis. However, you might say equity value is too high because of too much goodwill and an unexpectedly big increase in liabilities. Headline earnings may fall more than expected! But, more that is keeping shareholders of Interserve awake is the level of debt and the possibility of needing a Rights issue. For more analysis, you can click here: Thanks.
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