Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[unnavailable] 14/3/2018 14:45

Brick has become silica dust!. I'm Out, gentlemen. Sell limit reached at 90p. Been a wonderful ride from the 50s. But from 90p the risk/reward was not favourable for me. Was tempted to wait on it doubling but I don't mind missing the extra 10% or so to secure the stunning gains.Wish you all the best.

[obiwoncanary] 14/3/2018 14:27

IG goes red when in auction that’s how I know

[eodfire] 14/3/2018 14:24

Probably sweating and wondering what to do...

[montyville2] 14/3/2018 14:23

91.65p now...£1 here we come!

[8invest] 14/3/2018 14:20

obiwoncanary - what tells you there is an auction please? (forgive me if its obvious somewhere)

[eodfire] 14/3/2018 14:19

Looks like shorters running for the door again.

[obiwoncanary] 14/3/2018 14:13

They’ll be tears from some that’s for sure. No sympathy from me. Well done to all holders, this feels like the break out before + news

[eodfire] 14/3/2018 14:10

Glad I'm not short from the 60's. Sweat time again.

[eodfire] 14/3/2018 14:09

Yes please!

[obiwoncanary] 14/3/2018 14:08

Auction.... £1 today anyone??

[cfc1] 14/3/2018 14:05

still as fenners/findley and bunch say...I know nothing!! :-)

[cfc1] 14/3/2018 14:04

obi....i think hedge funds are getting wind of developments....

[eodfire] 14/3/2018 14:02

Where's brick gone?

[obiwoncanary] 14/3/2018 14:02

Lovin this cfc1. Our faith will pay off I’m more sure than ever now and my proce target is now £2

[cfc1] 14/3/2018 13:50

dex...NO the longer the BETTER....these agreements are long and complex!! this is a huge business....and banks are not exactly quick. BUT look how quickly they pulled the plug on Carillion.....
this is going according to plan....

[bullet ant] 14/3/2018 13:38

On every planet


Please do not waste precious oxygen Questioning your KING, ever again.


BA
Stealing is Good

[rackers1] 14/3/2018 13:38

this the same advice as you advising us all to short sky at £9 ?

[dexdringle] 14/3/2018 13:37

bullet ant - on which planet is stealing good ?

cfc1 - as I said I need £1.50 to break even. Just feels that the longer it takes the worse the mess must be...

[eodfire] 14/3/2018 13:21

Break out.

[cfc1] 14/3/2018 13:18

cc2014...ok ...best of luck.....
you make up tooooo many assumptions.....did you look back to contract wins in q1 2017??? do you not expect a forward business outlook in the PLAN? some massive gov't deals were/ are delayed partly due to brexit....but there is huge backlog of prison deals let alone anything else due in next 12months.

anyway, at least its a good exchange.

cheers

[cc2014] 14/3/2018 13:13

I seem to be being asked for a justification for not making a decision (yet) so it's really simple for me. I'd rather take a 25% profit with 100% certainty than a 200% profit on a flip of a coin.

It all comes down to what the free cash flow (or EBITDA if you prefer) will be vs. the interest charges on the new debt agreement.

Then you need to overlay the potential growth (or not) against how much interest rates are going to go up in the next 2-3 years.

Until they release the accounts for 2017 I can't get an up to date view of underlying FCF other than it's worse than at half year. Further the scale of the asset sales requires consideration because this will result in less EBITDA to fund the debt that's left. Also to fund the pension scheme deficit.

Finally I'm left with is their underlying business going to grow or shrink in the next couple of years. This I can make some assumptions on which is the support services will shrink and construction will grow.

If I wanted I could happily build a bull or bear case but I'm not interested in that. I await some facts before I make a decision. I will then trust my judgement to make a decision quicker than others as I have all my information to hand.

This is the sort of information I look at on top of the accounts



Data shows level of contract wins is falling meaning supporting the debt becomes harder and harder.

[cfc1] 14/3/2018 12:48

I give up dex!!! how about thinking

1) where are the emergency crisis talks that the FT issued on feb 12th
and other papers?!?!
2) do you really think the legalise that surround this are simple?
3) do you not think that the finer details are being ironed out?
4) announcement by end of Mar if not earlier - that is the timeline - always has been

I said weeks ago its all about the PLAN and you will soon hear about it.

I wont add more....if people dont want to buy and be nervous or rather wait for news then fine.

I dont mind being called a lier (lots of times on here) but as I said five months ago...I have good friends in this company and I WOULDNT have bought 200K shares for nothing. re losing alot (as some post here)...LOSE NOTHING unless I sell and the only thing i ponder is when to sell on announcements!