Interserve Share Discussion Threads

[eodfire] 13/11/2017 14:39

Thanks for your post monty. Some good points there. I agree with all you have said, we have some interesting times ahead! Luckily my avg is around 90p. Imo, very good risk/reward from where we are currently. But I am long! Lol

[montyville2] 13/11/2017 14:26

eodfire - you are referring to the psychology of owning shares and holders will always tend to err on the positive... I am a holder but fully understand the risks here:

- open ended debt on EFW
- declining performance in main business units
- debt covenants precariously poised

I am holding as I think there is a fair chance that some/all of these risks can be turned around, hopefully the company will update soon on the effect of the court case ruling on EFW, hopefully the new CEO will turn around the business performance, initial job cuts have been announced but surely a lot more to follow, and banking covenants a likely to be extended.

So in my view there is plenty of downside risk and understand Jeffian's POV but equally there is a good chance of a recovery! The next business update will be very interesting!

[eodfire] 13/11/2017 13:43

Interesting how you never read posts with a positive slant from non holders... I guess if you are positive about the company you would have bought your shares...

[eodfire] 13/11/2017 13:20

Fair enough Jeff. Trying for a cheaper buy in then. Good luck. Imo I think the bottom is in and it'll be a steady (but choppy) rise from here.

[fenners66] 13/11/2017 13:19

I think some needed that anyway.

[jeffian] 13/11/2017 13:13

cfc1,

It's a bulletin board, a financial 'chatroom', that's all. There is no rule that you must
a) only post if you own shares and
b) only say positive things.

Far from having "ZERO interest in the stock", I actually held it for over 16 years until recently and may do so again, so I do know a bit about the company and feel perfectly entitled to comment. I've never shorted anything in my life (why risk losing more than you 'invest'?!) and anyone who thinks anything posted by anonymous PI's on a chat forum has any influence at all on the price of a £3bn-turnover company needs their head examined!

[cfc1] 13/11/2017 12:28

eod - yeah..

[eodfire] 13/11/2017 12:03

Cfc1- either shorting or wants a cheaper buy in. Simple.

[cfc1] 13/11/2017 11:17

so what you doing on the msgboard Jeffian (again)....you clearly have ZERO interest in the stock..or are you a shorter....you must have a reason for bothering posting here?!

[jeffian] 13/11/2017 10:17

Or....

you have been formally told that there is a train crash coming but you're prepared to get on board betting it'll be a minor shunt rather than running into the buffers at 100mph!

[ph1ts] 13/11/2017 10:09

I think most of the recent pullback is down to the overall market. All my holdings have fallen over the second half of last week. Too many areas of uncertainty. I am thinking of increasing my holding, because there was certainly some very positive news released over the last 2 weeks, and something was driving the price up before the markets turned.

[fenners66] 10/11/2017 22:18

Show your evidence.
I have told you where to find the details on shorts..

[cfc1] 10/11/2017 16:08

fen666666 this is going down because its being played...IF you paid attention you would see BIG CFDs being taken out....down one way then reversed..and YOU reckon thats not being 'played' .....

[fenners66] 10/11/2017 13:56

Short interest tracker is showing 7.31%
This month that has moved up - but by just 0.18%

This compares to the highest shorts on the market Carillion at 16.4%

Interserve is about 17th on the highest short list - you are getting a pretty easy ride compared to others and CLLN are in the same markets with similar problems

This has fallen due to supply and demand .

[cfc1] 10/11/2017 12:28

I reckon its been driven down by a big player with a big short on the stock...then they will reverse it...stock is now being traded down then up etc. Pain in the......
Its probably my mate Fenners!

[losses] 10/11/2017 11:27

Not selling any added more today

[cfc1] 10/11/2017 10:30

love u fenners

[fenners66] 10/11/2017 10:18

What?
Maybe you should be investing in a controlled economy - Venezuela perhaps - no one should be allowed to sell shares you own eh?

Not until you can make enough profit by selling your shares at least.

What happens then if everyone sets the same profit level and all sells when you do?

Maybe everyone has - and you are just left holding the baby as you were too greedy and the rest were smart .

[cfc1] 10/11/2017 10:09

so angry...played up 10p and now taken all back in two days.....f@ing illegal!!!

[cfc1] 10/11/2017 09:08

so much for the SFA clamping down on short selling...Interserve being played up and then down....it should be illegal....I can just see all the big fat traders getting together smoking big cigars deciding when to sell / buy.....bit like 'wall street' the film!!!

[jeffian] 09/11/2017 20:06

Well of course it takes 2 views to make a market, eodfire, so my loss will be someone else's gain! I'm not sure it is all priced in, though, mainly because there are still too many unknowns to make an informed view.

[eodfire] 09/11/2017 19:43

Thanks for your thoughts jeffian. I believe that the 3 negative points you made are already priced in, hence the recent lows of the share price into the 50's. With every rise there is going to be a pull back. Admittedly, today's pull back was fairly heavy but imo we should be climbing again soon. This is going to be a volatile stock for a while.

[jeffian] 09/11/2017 19:24

The court case would certainly be good news because the real pain in the case where a contract has been terminated by the employer is in the consequential losses that arise thereafter. In that case, the employer goes to another contractor to finish off the work and that is pretty well an open-ended blank cheque, plus IRV would also probably be on the hook for consequential losses arising from the fact that the plant is not operating on time resulting in additional costs to the Council of disposing of the waste elsewhere. The result of the court case seems to have been that the employer was wrong to terminate the contract without letting IRV find alternative subcontractors to complete the work, so they would obviously now be able to dispute the 'consequential losses' arising.

However.... the links above only seem to relate to a single contract in Kidderminster. IRV had 6 contracts and the original problems arose in the Glasgow area, so presumably they are still in trouble with 5 contracts.

As posted before, I bailed out (probably at the low point!) because of the continuing uncertainties and, whilst the court case is undoubtedly a small ray of light, the potential for further downside shocks remains from
1) the other 5 contracts
2) any breach of banking covenants and the terms imposed by the banks and
3) refinancing and balance sheet 'repair'.

[the juggler] 09/11/2017 19:12

I hear that the standard "your are at risk of redundancy" letters/emails went out to thousands of their employees today.

[losses] 09/11/2017 18:47

Maybe there's good news coming regarding the banks..