International Distributi... Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 16/9/2010 20:29

Oriel - 15/9/10:

Today's results reveal yet another range busting result. We are upgrading our numbers by a further 10% leaving the shares trading well below the sector and market on a forward PE of 8.6x for FY2011. Yet there is a genuine growth story here that the market is giving the company little credit for. On our numbers, which we believe to be highly conservative, we forecast earnings to grow 26% p.a. over the next 2 years. Growth in the top line, to our mind will be underpinned by growing internet sales, market share gains in the Craft category and growth into new niche categories. Tight control of the cost base and further gross margin gains should mean that management's target to restore operating margins back to historic levels of 7-8% should be achievable given the operational gearing within the business. Ideal Shopping remains an unappreciated stock. Sooner rather than later a rerating will occur. BUY.

[cockneyrebel] 15/9/2010 10:39

LONDON (Dow Jones)--U.K. home shopping channel retailer Ideal Shopping Direct PLC (IDS.LN) Wednesday said it is considering further acquisitions to take it in to new product categories like cake decorating and pottery.
"We believe there's a number of other craft strands that are appropriate to our business. We're very much demonstration-led, in a [U.K. children's show] Blue Peter-style way, and we think there's opportunities to introduce new categories like cake decorating, knitting, needlecraft and pottery," Chief Executive Mike Hancox told Dow Jones Newswires.
In March Hancox said the company was keen to tap in to the pet care market. In the summer it launched Animal Bargains Ltd, a business selling items like pet food, clothing and accessories.
"We're testing the new categories in the second half of the year. As we're still to complete our strategic review I can't say anything too specific, but as part of the strategic review we've said we will look at all options... which includes acquisitions," Hancox said.

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Well £14m of cash to buy stuff with so any profitable business they buy will be earnings enhancing if they do buy.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 15/9/2010 09:45

I still don't think most get it tho Nurdin! :-)

I'll spell it out a bit clearer :-)

These lost 4p eps in H1 last year, they did 7p eps for the year - that means they did 11p eps last year in H2 on an untaxed basis. Had H2 been taxed at say 30% then they'd have done 7.7p eps in H2 last year.

So 6p eps in H1 and a flat H2 would be 13.7p eps for the year this year.

But H2 is up 10% and margins have risen so they should do way more than 7,7p eps for H2 - more like 11p+ imo and 17p+ for the year.


Of course the uninitiated will think that this must be missing something because forecasts are way lower but that's how it's been for the past 18 months and they keep coing out with 'ahead' or 'significantly ahead ' trading statements.

£14m net cash too.

Wait for the trading statement imo.

CR

[nurdin] 15/9/2010 08:11

Yes I agree CR..cracking results and as you say more than likely to beat full year estimates.cheers

[cockneyrebel] 15/9/2010 08:08

just do the math, go back and look at how H2 is weighted, read what they say and ask how they can fail to smash forecasts.

Once they are a month or two down the line you'll get the big t/s imo and if you're not holding then you're out of it imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 15/9/2010 07:38

fantastic results imo and I'm not using that word lightly.

5.9p eps in H1 and they were taxed this year compared to last year when they weren't.

H2 is heavily weighted - they do near double in H2 than H1. They are simply miles ahead of forecasts!

£14m net cash, paying a divi and looking at ways to enhance shareholder value including selling the co.

6p eps in H1 has to mean 12p eps in H2 at least imo and 18p+ for the year.

Just doubling H1 eps would beat forecasts!

My bet is 18p+ eps this year, 24p eps+ for the year ahead (and a strategic review as a bunce!)

Oh, and a divi for the year of 4p+ too imo.

CR

[santangello] 15/9/2010 07:38

phew lol.........

Agree.....a day to add early doors.

[simon gordon] 15/9/2010 07:20

Strategic Review

On 12 July 2010 the Company announced that it intended to undertake a review of its strategic options. We have since appointed Rothschild as advisors and they began their work at the end of August. We are at an early stage but as already stated, the review will include considering a sale of the business alongside other options to create value for shareholders. The Board will update shareholders should a further announcement become appropriate.

Dividend

As a mark of its confidence in the future, the Board is pleased to declare an interim dividend of 1.50p per share (2009: nil).

Current Trading

Trading in the first 8 weeks of the second half year to 29 August 2010 is in line with management expectations, increasing by 10.3%. This brings sales growth in the first 34 weeks of the year to 17.1%. The core Ideal Shopping business grew by 6.9% and 10.2% for the 8 and 34 weeks respectively whilst LTGL sales grew by 23.5% and 58.7% for the 8 and 34 weeks respectively. We maintained a strong cash position of GBP13.0 million at 29 August 2010. Many other retailers remain cautious about consumer confidence, but we are optimistic that we can continue to grow sales with our unique multi channel business model.

[dnfa1975] 15/9/2010 07:17

looks like big move day up today

[bigbigdave] 15/9/2010 07:17

Worrying my @rse 8-)

[santangello] 14/9/2010 21:47

Not impressed here with pre results activity/interest...

I hope I haven't called tomorrow wrong ?????

Was almost tempted to sell today, but didn't.

Worrying....

[simon gordon] 14/9/2010 16:28

Couple of tubs of lard selling a Vibrapower on the channel right now :-)

[bigbigdave] 14/9/2010 16:24

Quiet thread, guess things will be different tomorrow!

[nurdin] 14/9/2010 11:07

I succumbed....but that wasnt me :o)

[cockneyrebel] 14/9/2010 10:37

Large trades - someone clearing the seller out ahead of the results tomorrow?

CR

[bigbigdave] 14/9/2010 10:01

Looks like the wife's SIPP has seen a few more of these added today.

[santangello] 14/9/2010 00:05

Wed will be fine CR.........

[cockneyrebel] 13/9/2010 17:36

Nice 15k buy today but never moved the price.

Still - got to buy volume when you can - will there be any stock about after the results?

We'll know on Weds :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/9/2010 14:11

Buyers moving in - on the up at last :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/9/2010 16:08

L2 firming up as buys start coming in - results Weds :-)

CR

[bigbigdave] 06/9/2010 14:36

Bouncing right on chart trend, bring on the results.

[choppa] 03/9/2010 11:59

Yep, agreed CR can see these higher long term but lack of patience seems to always shake a few people out.

[cockneyrebel] 03/9/2010 11:14

yep, will SCSW tip them again next weekend ahead of the results too?

CR