International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[darrin1471] 06/5/2020 11:09

m1k3y16

Commercial passenger flights + cargo flights + charter flights + some business jet flights. Down 70% since March. Up 7% from bottom.

hxxps://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics

[m1k3y1] 06/5/2020 10:44

Jailbird.......cargo flights generate a lot of profit for IAG and BA . Pax flights are still operating with 40,000 pax being returned to India in the last few days.
These flights are paid for , not free and BA has a 70m contract , I understand for repatriation flights.

I don't believe it will take 3+ years to return to normal .
It will all be driven by how quickly countries open their borders and once a few of them have, others will quickly follow.

Trump will not be slow in opening the US borders again.

Disney opening it's Shanghai park next week.

[m1k3y1] 06/5/2020 10:40

Wizz Air announces plans to resume flights to Portugal and Greece

[silkstag] 06/5/2020 10:37

Issue is not about flying. Numbers are the problem.
When flying, is economy 85% full and business 75%? Need for breakeven.
Will 1/3 to 2/3 of planes never fly again? £8 bn to £16 bn of maimed assets. Write
downs will be more than 31-3-20 £6 bn net assets.
Will IAG have to pay £4 bn to cancel £11 bn of contracted new planes not wanted? Or buy them and write down another £2 bn of older planes?
UK and Spain gov would make loans to salvage viable core business of say 33-50% of planes (top end assumes Virign and others disappear). Saves 33-50% jobs. Saves flag carrier. Saves say 80% of secured creditor cash. Restructuring value is negative. Shareholders are irrelevant and slaughtered to token 5-10p. Court approves refinancing deal in July 2021.
All imho. DYOR

[PS Countryside Properties, CSP, has surged 100p in past month for no reason and it has hidden its Q2 numbers (to 31 March. Has 30 Sept year end). Over 2 weeks late. Over-priced 33% imho. DYOR. Will not post CSP again here]

[jailbird] 06/5/2020 10:36

Belfast cannot be used by anything to go by I am sharing this info that has been passed to me from LHR employees who has access to the data Cannot take flyware planes as a sensible guide.. does it show whether these are cargo or pax There are a lot of cargo flights And pax flights have been converted to cargo only yet still fly out of pax terminals slots Yes we we still see a gradual small step change in flight increases but small and it will still be a couple of years of losses

[m1k3y1] 06/5/2020 10:26

If Belfast to LHR was anything to go by, the flights are doing very well.
Won't be long before the skies are open again and people are booking heavily.

[rhatton] 06/5/2020 09:56

Looks pretty quiet over UK, France Spain from what I can see.
Yes there are flights, how many people are on them? Are they repatriation flights?

Have the Pax versions been converted to freighters? Saw a pic the other day of a 777, all pax seats loaded with parcels.

[m1k3y1] 06/5/2020 09:43

jailbird.....take a look at flightaware.
Type in LHR and zoom out to see all of the aircraft in the sky...........this nonsense about taking years to get back flying is complete rubbish.

[l2e] 06/5/2020 09:40

I know this is old and does not include additional airlines.
Can anyone do a rough calc for assets value and non passenger flight just for BA as a breakup.
Excluding air passenger and just a sale or nationalisation for the BA brand.
Would that be at a super rough ballpark share price of £1.50?
Or would that be too generous?

hxxps://www.statista.com/statistics/309506/british-airways--uk-freight-cargo/

[jailbird] 06/5/2020 09:37

M1What is definition of well ?I am telling you LHR is looking to close T3 and T4 until end of the year Do you know about PAX flights are flying from LHR today ?2-3% I am told

[m1k3y1] 06/5/2020 09:29

Flights are alive and well.....
Check live flight trackers

[jailbird] 06/5/2020 09:16

So airlines are in big trouble for at least 2 years ... and he predicts one if the biggest costs to airlines will be oil , which he forecasts to $100 within 18 months You buy just oil then and not airlines

[m1k3y1] 06/5/2020 09:10

Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris sees oil at $100 in 18 months, says he would buy airlines

[montyhedge] 06/5/2020 08:44

I see 125p what's the bull case? Surely no one in their right mind will fly until vaccine, no dividends for 3 years what I can see.At 125p, market cap 2.5 billion pounds, still generous.

[hamhamham1] 06/5/2020 08:17

Or maybe spamspamspam1?

[toon1966] 06/5/2020 07:58

Good luck with your M&S punt Ham, if you continue I may have to start calling you 'Spam' or 'Sir Rampalot' in homage to NY Boy!

[montyhedge] 06/5/2020 07:35

I see Norwegian raising money from shareholders 80% discount to shareprice.

[montyhedge] 06/5/2020 07:29

I think your right, at 100p market cap 2 billion pounds.

[azalea] 06/5/2020 06:15

Listening to the 5am business news with Sally Bundock this morning speaking to a very experienced American pilot who now runs his own business, it is very clear that airlines who do not go bust(and there are likely to be 40% worldwide out of a reported total of 800)are in for a very hard time. The speaker this morning stated that if pax pilots do not fly a minimum of 3 times a week they will lose there "currency". To regain it, they will have to spend time in a simulator which is very expensive to operate.

He also said that if the virus was only for a short time he would support governments bailing out airlines,but not otherwise.
We know that the Dutch government has said it would bail out KLM on condition it reduces air pollution levels of its aircraft. That can only mean they will have to buy new ones with more efficient cleaner engines.

Even the CEO of FEDEX on the programme expects a down turn in business, despite carrying and delivering X number of tons of medical supplies around the world.

.

[hamhamham1] 06/5/2020 05:52

I dabbled in Marks & Sparks yesterday, as "food sales representing 71% of UK sales and 50% of gross profit" according to the Credit Suisse recent double upgrade note.
Plus they got Ocado (which M&S now own 50% of the Ocado Uk delivery business) coming online soon and they own freehold on a lot of buildings.
Yikes, I sound like NYBoy.
Apologies.

investors.co.uk/companies/news/918062/ms-double-upgraded-and-next-downgraded-as-credit-suisse-rebalances-views-on-uk-retail-918062.html

Note, remove the space between proactive and investors to get link to work.

[sbb1x] 05/5/2020 22:42

Guys Lots of stuff on Twitter guys With regards to Norwegian air and air France being saved.Qatar and Ryanair cutting staff etc.Virgin leaving gatwick.This could easily touch 100 in coming sessions.Box clever and always protect capital!

[sbb1x] 05/5/2020 22:39

CLARIDA SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS GOING TO SURGE TO LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE THE 1940CHICAGO FED ECONOMISTS ESTIMATE JOBLESS RATE AS HIGH AS 34% IN APRIL... TO COMPARE:PEAK UNEMPLOYMENT WAS 24.9% DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 1933... https://t.co/xUclHH8fYe

[silkstag] 05/5/2020 21:24

Folks,
Q1) what loss will IAG have to admit on its balance sheet £24 bn + contracted £11 bn = £35 bn of planes?
A1) £10 bn plane write-downs and distressed sale losses.

Q2) What trading and redundancy loss will IAG make in 12 months to 31 March 2021?
A2) £6 bn.

Q3) IAG had £7 bn net assets at 31 December 2019. It lost £1 bn in Q1 2020. What net assets will it have at 31 March 2021?
A3) 7 - 1- 10 - 6 = - £10 bn net liabilities. Massively insolvent.

Q4) Are shareholders already under water i.e. 0 value for them?
A4) Yes. By about -£10 bn.

Q5) What will happen?
A5) Creditors will control the restructuring and shareholders will be left with a token 1-2% of peak valuation = 5-10p.

Q6) Why are IAG shareholders dead in the water?
A6) IAG has too much debt and way too much contracted planes. It was preparing aggressively for growth so it is hit way harder than others. The brutally sharp about turn will burn way more than its net assets. Sad but true.

MANDATORY SELL. Not a buy at 150p or 100p or 50p. Already 5 ft 11 inches underground. All imho. DYOR

[action] 05/5/2020 20:37

Mr Buffet came out of china 10 years a go if I remember correctly.