International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[younasm] 22/3/2016 08:50

1-5 % move becoming quite regular. Need to see some stability -- I am mainly long here.

[applepieinthesky] 18/3/2016 08:13

Looks from recent the recent sky news interview with Walsh he is not a well man could this be something known as Karma

[younasm] 17/3/2016 22:15

Don't look for rational explanations --- you only find them with hindsight. Even then the explanations will change over time as more scandals / facts are revealed :-)

[nil pd] 16/3/2016 03:40

Keeping an eye on that 200 day moving average...

[phillis] 15/3/2016 18:16

if Willie W thinks it is a good buy .....

[nil pd] 15/3/2016 12:35

You jest redbaron!

Even more of a "buy" today, given that Willie has bought 50K shares. Clearly he can only trade when he is allowed to, and with this in mind his view must be the shares are good value right now.

Usual small print, the above is a deduction not a recommendation.

[redbaron10] 14/3/2016 18:41

So Nil Pd,that's a sell recommendation then!

[nil pd] 14/3/2016 17:02

March 2016 Broker forecasts from Hargreaves Lansdown


Figure on the right is the broker's latest target. Nomura and Investec raised their targets in March.

Barclays Capital 03/03 Reiterates Overweight Overweight 750.00p 750.00p

Nomura 02/03 Retains Buy Buy 800.00p 850.00p

Jefferies International 02/03 Reiterates Buy Buy 700.00p 700.00p

RBC Capital Markets 02/03 Reiterates Outperform Outperform 660.00p 660.00p

HSBC 01/03 Reiterates Hold Hold 620.00p

Investec 01/03 Retains Buy Buy 720.00p 740.00p

[alphahunter] 10/3/2016 09:21

"watch these move back up later today .... and then, next week we should be heading much higher."

Another prophet
LOL.

[redbaron10] 09/3/2016 15:42

Unbelievable,another Irishman in charge of a major airline.Just had Alan Joyce the CEO of Qantas on CNBC business.What is it with the Irish and running airlines?

[nil pd] 07/3/2016 15:20

Agree with you redbaron, Willie Walsh has my admiration too. The right pilot for the job.

With dividends taking off, income-seeking funds should be accumulating.

[redbaron10] 07/3/2016 13:49

All good positive stuff Nil Pd.Echo your sentiments,we live in hope of 600p.Just happy to invest in a stock that shorters aren't sniffing around.I just have enormous admiration for Willie Walsh as CEO.Bringing BA and Iberia together,sorting out the spanish practices going on,then adding Aer Lingus to the stable last year,fair play.What is it with the Irish and running airlines? Michael O'leary is also a very canny operator.Just love well run companies with excellent management.Having been employed in companies where management haven't a clue(mentioning no names)they show how a well run company can compete in a global environment.Hope to make a profit off the back of them!

[nil pd] 07/3/2016 13:06

I bought here last week. Glad to see a welcoming thread of discussion.

I'll add whatever useful comments I have, as and when. Why did I buy in? Good results, broker consensus forecasts and it being one of only two "strong buys" in the whole FTSE100. Also, the chart I drew up showed the RSI around 50, not the 70-level showing here in spob's embedded chart (when I bought in). Finally, I expect a move to 600 level in the short term - all things being equal, which they never are! LOL! Happy to hold and wait with a good share (IMO).

[redbaron10] 07/3/2016 10:27

Thank you alphahunter.Additional info that helps a small investor like myself.I've heard previously that BA was described as a pension fund with an airline attached.I've had my fingers burnt before with hidden pension liabilities,ie Uniq and watched the share price fall out of bed,so i'm always wary and on the watch out.I hear AirFrance/KLM has returned to profitability after a number of years so the European airline sector looking up hopefully.I think this share will tread water til closer to the dividend date in the summer.The oil price increase isn't helping.Can anyone explain how the oil price is rising when the whole world is pumping furiously.Cushing storage in the US full.All i've heard is the Russians and Iran have agreed to stick to their present production output and yet Brent and WTI keep rising! Me no understand.

[alphahunter] 07/3/2016 08:57

RedBaron

Airlines are capital intensive, and collectively they don't beat their cost of capital over an economic cycle. Although this isn't true of IAG, this is something to keep in mind.

BA has a large pension deficit, so the discount rate (corporate AA) used to calculate the actuarial deficit DOES influence the share price - not on a daily basis naturally, but set limits to share price appreciation.

US airlines - unlike European ones ain;t no hedge in place, hence pundit Cramer says buys. In addition, I think that US airlines trade at lower multiples.

I could go on and on.
IAG remain one of the best in the bunch in my opinion.
Give it another three weeks.

[redbaron10] 05/3/2016 12:41

Just like to add,this is much better message board than the Lonmin i've been on with this co.Helpful advice to fellow investors just trying to make this game interesting and hopefully profitable, is what the forums are all about.It wasn't reciprocated much on the Lonmin site.I gave them all the benefit of my homework and research and if they'd followed my advice they would have done very nicely thank you.No feedback,or anyone giving their own input,it was totally sterile.On this forum you get helpful tips,which can help the unwary of losing their shirt.cheers

[redbaron10] 05/3/2016 12:26

Thank you smicker,v.helpful and what you say makes perfect sense.Broker forecasts,even though i take no notice of them for the reasons you outlined,are as useful as a chocolate teapot with this share.They might as well be forex traders because the share price is so inter-dependent on currency fluctuations ie usd/euro,usd/GBp. With a strong dollar,hence weaker euro,the fuel cost savings aren't as great as imagined.Also weaker euro and GBp makes trips to the US a lot more pricey for the average tripper.The exchange rate is great for US visitors to UK and Europe,but because of the Paris attack and safety concerns,not as many US visitors are expected despite the exchange rate being in their favour.I am now beginning to understand the myriad of factors and influences on this share price.It's difficult to know which of the factors prevails at any one time to affect the price at a given time.Slowly learning the pattern of behaviour of this share and thanks for your experience as an investor who has clearly seen the highs and lows with this investment.Much appreciated.

[smicker] 05/3/2016 11:39

If you look at the chart from 1986 you can see there are 2 previous peaks around 700 and 600 with troughs around the 150 mark. (I was a holder here from 148 and sold at 585). This doesnt mean to say it wont go higher etc etc but i think its the reason the share has had trouble getting out of this price range.


BTW When you see all the brokers giving you free advice telling you to buy i think its fair to assume they could have clients who want to sell hence they need to generate buying interest. Likewise if they all give free advice to sell....Probably best to ignore the price targets and study the contents of the notes themselves to see if the rationale makes sense

[redbaron10] 05/3/2016 07:12

I've been trying to understand the dynamics of this share price ever since i heard Jim Cramer confidently predict a fall in oil prices is a boon to airline stocks.Stupidly i hadn't appreciated he was referencing US airline stocks,not worldwide airline stocks which i presumed.Having invested in IAG over 14 months ago,the share price is flat or slightly negative.Every broker analyst is a screaming 'buy' rating with 12 month out share price predictions well over £7 in most cases.Good air traffic stats every month,good quarter and annual results,nothing gives the shares a short-term boost.Easyjet and Ryanair shares follow a similar pattern.My conclusion is that because the shares are cdi's and no stamp duty is paid on their purchase in the UK,the share is cheaper to trade on a day trading basis and the institutions and market-makers do everything to avoid volatile share price movements here.This share is predominantly affected by Euro/dollar exchange rate.A strong dollar mitigates all the low oil price advantages to be gained by airlines.Unfortunately,the ECB will be looking to depreciate the Euro again this week.A chance to test my theory with this share.

[alphahunter] 03/3/2016 17:38

"watch these move back up later today .... and then, next week we should be heading much higher." ;-)

There is one day left to the week, I suppose the stock may reverse its loss and jump tomorrow...


I'm glad I sold straight away last week, give the share a month, or rather three weeks for it to stabilise.

[bili1946] 03/3/2016 16:48

Good news all around.....oil price, dollar exchange rate,RPK. Just the damn share price!!

[skinny] 03/3/2016 16:00

§ Group traffic in February, measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometres, increased by 15.8 per cent versus February 2015 (up 9.5 per cent on a pro-forma basis); Group capacity measured in Available Seat Kilometres rose by 14.0 per cent (up 7.2 per cent on a pro-forma basis).

§ Group premium traffic for the month of February increased by 7.0 per cent on a pro-forma basis.

[juluman] 03/3/2016 13:59

Or IAG will buy a stake in Latam.
Yesterday Brazil increased from 20 to 49 the participation of foreign companies on local airlines.