International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[m1k3y1] 14/3/2020 21:17

A coronavirus vaccine could soon be tested on humans in the UK following “encouraging” research on mice

[loganair] 14/3/2020 21:16

Lufthansa saying this evening they may have to cut capacity further, a cut of up to 70% from their normal schedule of flights.

[smithys2019] 14/3/2020 20:58

Plenty of companies have temporary EPS effectively below zero yet hold share prices well. Many haven’t fell anywhere near the level that IAG have. Fear is utterly controlling the market at the moment. The recovery is going to take a long time. But there will also be significant industry consolidation and state level support across the economy. Boeing for example cannot be allowed to fail, it has a huge number of small businesses in its supply chain and the loss of Boeing will cause huge economic damage. If airlines are expected to keep aircraft orders going, they are going to need support.

[loganair] 14/3/2020 20:43

Air Baltic is to temporarily suspend flights from 17 March until 14 April following the Latvian government’s decision to suspend international air traffic.

[loganair] 14/3/2020 20:38

TUI Belgium has decided not to take, until further notice, people who have booked a package trip in their vacation destination.

For holidaymakers currently staying abroad, TUI fly Belgium will continue to operate return flights to Belgium. Each traveller will be informed personally as soon as possible.

Onboard outbound flights, there will, therefore, be no person having booked a package trip. As for customers who have booked only a plane ticket, they can take this flight. However, TUI cannot guarantee that they will then be able to return to the country on the return flight they had booked.

[waikenchan] 14/3/2020 20:32

Best case scenario - fall to cash value which is around 4 billion. This equates to share price of around £2.70. However I suspect the share price will be far lower as the share price is a reflection of future earning. I think we can agree that the eps for FY20 is going to fall through the floor.

[m1k3y1] 14/3/2020 20:20

They will not want the airports closed and flights grounded for longer than possible.
Maybe start screening people at check in, rather than arrival .

It will of course be impossible to wait until there are no cases of the virus in any country before re-starting flights.
So, a compromise will be reached.

[davethehorse] 14/3/2020 20:11

Forget PEs and get out

[dround87] 14/3/2020 19:55

You reiterated 45 mins before! Epic miss. What was it 20pc off? Pretty hard to get that sort of error within an hour of the forecast! Well done.

[spob] 14/3/2020 19:52

Only a fool would hold shares in any airline right now

sorry to be blunt

don't mean to offend


forget pe ratios

there is no e in "pe"

[loganair] 14/3/2020 19:51

British Airways told employees that it is to ground flights “like never before” and lay off workers both in the short term, and “perhaps long term."

A dire memo to staff warned that the airline industry was facing a "crisis of global proportions" that was worse than that caused by the 9/11 attacks or the SARS epidemic.

The usually robust Ryanair also told staff they may be forced to take leave from Monday.

[spob] 14/3/2020 19:50

There won't be any flights full stop

apart from freight

everything will be shutdown for a number of weeks

[loganair] 14/3/2020 19:47

"The speed of the demand fall-off is unlike anything we've seen," Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in a note to staff, which also alerted workers that the company would ground 300 aircraft, cut flights by 40 percent and reduce spending by $2 billion.


Swiss International is taking half its fleet out of service and reducing working hours for flight personnel.

[spacedust] 14/3/2020 19:45

ADround I only got last Friday wrong as short selling ban helped markets. Otherwise we'd have finished 300p sub

This week 250p then April 80p

[smithys2019] 14/3/2020 19:44

I give it til Monday evening until a huge central bank intervention.

IAG is trading (based upon 19-20 figures) on a P/E of less than 6. I’m expecting it to fall to less than 4. The long term average for a decent FTSE100 with decent financials is over 20. It’s going to take 2+ years, but firmly believe that when the global economy recovers, earnings will overshoot 19-20 figures thus supporting a higher price. I also think that IAG are best placed with their war chest to sit this out until a time a recovery is well established.

Sit tight I reckon. It’s about to get very ugly and I’m expecting 1 or two major failures in this sector in the next 2 weeks. IAG won’t be one of them.

[hamhamham1] 14/3/2020 19:38

Every share is a gamble where we are. Back Monday.

[essentialinvestor] 14/3/2020 19:32

loganair, any view on RYA?, Thanks. Thought RyanAir worth a look if under 9?.

[hamhamham1] 14/3/2020 19:28

Maybe. But hopefully in 2-5 years they will be higher. Don't buy, don't sell, IMO.

[loganair] 14/3/2020 19:25

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see both IAG and Easyjet fall by 50% on Monday and when this has all finished to see a bottom for IAG of sub 100p.

[dround87] 14/3/2020 19:14

Oh spacedust! Think you've lost the right to make share price predictions after the last couple of fails. Possible or even probable we'll see 250. But now you've said it...

[m1k3y1] 14/3/2020 18:44

The problem is Logan.....where to park them all.

No doubt they will be using some A/C for emergency medical flights.

[loganair] 14/3/2020 18:36

If I was any UK airline I would be returning as many aircraft to their bases as possible and shutting down all but UK Domestic operation for the next 2 to 4 weeks so aircraft and crews are in the right place and properly rested when operations resume.

[asusasus] 14/3/2020 18:34

I was only interested cos I have a flight to California booked for April with BA. I want a full refund but they are only offering a voucher to reschedule which stinks IMO. Surely I am entitled to a full refund?

[loganair] 14/3/2020 18:32

Norway to shut all ports and airports on Monday.

[hamhamham1] 14/3/2020 18:31

IMO:
DON'T TRADE IN THIS MARKET.
DON'T SELL IN THIS MARKET.
DON'T BUY ON THIS MARKET.
JUST SIT ON TOUR HANDS.