Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[237gmoney] 03/4/2009 09:49

if theres a new broker note from finncap would be nice to have a look at it if anyone gets a copy....

has there been any positive press today on the trading update??? I notice a few small buys this morning so wont be long before it perks up again...

[igoe104] 03/4/2009 02:49

Looks like new adviser finncap have a positive note out on intercede.


'Newsflow shows that Intercede both continues to develop revenue from
existing contracts and by winning new contracts,' he says in a note

[igoe104] 02/4/2009 12:23

I think the pound will get weaker for a while yet, it could come down to 1.3 yet, or even less.

Im looking forward to results in june should be able to see how many projects we are now going to be involved in, my guess is that its over 20 now and rising.

then maybe we might get RNS about some contract wins between now and june.

[237gmoney] 02/4/2009 12:13

Boad, my guess is the fx rates had a very positive effect on the overall profit amount hence the £1m plus profits. Likewise happened at the company I work for so we cant get too carried away with the dollar coming back to the £1 = $1.5 mark....If the dollar starts to get worse then we will have to take that into consideration for the forward ratings as well...

[boadicea] 02/4/2009 11:45

Essentially the company should be rated on a forward p/e multiple as the historic is near meaningless when it has only just come into profit.
How much credence is given to the forward rating will depend on the visibility and security of earnings. Unfortunately, government contract forecasts are liable to delays, as posters have noted previously, although there is minimum risk of the customer actually going bankrupt or defaulting after delivery. Some governments are worse than others, the UK being almost in third world category for IT and technical implementation, so the fact that much of the work is for overseas entities is a comfort, with the added bonus of a sinking pound to enhance the revenue conversion.
There is no doubting the technical competence of IGP. Rapid expansion, contract negotiation and management etc will impose new strains on business organisation and if these are accommodated successfully the future looks very bright indeed.

[owenski] 02/4/2009 11:20

Cash position here also very encouraging
Regards all

[237gmoney] 02/4/2009 11:19

Also 4 rns in 4 days.....this company is starting to look the real deal....and possible UK ID cards in the pipeline...still have over a year before the conservatives get into power so the ID card will be too far gone for them to take it out all together....even if they cut it off with just the non-eu people on it your talking a couple of million cards in the next 5 years or so...

[igoe104] 02/4/2009 10:40

The great thing about the company is month by month they seem to be winning contract after contract.

Further to Intercede's Trading Update on 5 February 2009, we are pleased to
report that the Company is continuing to experience high levels of interest in
and demand for its MyID technology.


I see this continuing to happen for years to come.

[cambium] 02/4/2009 09:46

More projects in the pipeline........be patient 237gmoney!

[237gmoney] 02/4/2009 09:43

Fantastic trading update, £3.7m cash is crazy jump in one year in the current market conditions. So I guess that solves the issue of the loan note holders then - they will convert any day soon and as long term holders will most probably keep hold of all their stock.

The cash is increaseing so much because IGP are going straight for the client with the deals now rather than going through a third party as with the BT contract on the NHS. The TWIC project will also kick on from here now in cashflow terms when the 1m cards are issued and IGP start getting in more revenue with the remainder.

Other companies looking to upgrade, will see strength in IGP's balance sheet and want to work with this company now as it is on a firm footing with so much cash in the bank.

Profit over £1m as well is brilliant. if the AIM market was not doing as bad as it is at the moment this share price would be up in the 70's easy. 90% growth in one year when the current market is declining is a stellar performance and we know 2009-10 will be another growth year, with possibly the same result again...

It wont be long before this share price is heading towards the £1 a share mark.

Great stuff guys. (only issue is I would have liked a little more info on the projects in the trading update but still nice to see it out as early as possible. Show good PR and the press will pick up on this as well - I wonder if the telegraph will change their stance from avoid now....has risen over 100% since they said that!)

[yump] 02/4/2009 09:11

Because of its relatively small following of investors, this is the only share in my portfolio that I've got pencilled in as a possible multi-bagger. All the other shares are hung up on p/e's and eps's because they are relatively well established with historic earnings and everyone is trying to justify further growth to drive a share price rise.

I almost forgot about the rapid potential changes in rating when a company starts growing quickly from a small start.

I don't normally invest in companies before they get very close to break even as the market is littered with those that have just frittered away investors money and where management always has an excuse.

This was an exception and nice to see how well the business has been managed through tricky times, not to speak of just managing during startup and product launch etc.

[wjccghcc] 02/4/2009 09:07

True riv, but that PE is historic. I'd want to talk to management but if we make the assumption that growth next year slows to 50% while costs increase at the same rate, then you're looking at revenues of 8mm and PBT of 3mm which puts them on a forward PE of below 6.

The wonders of operational gearing with a gross margin of 99%.

[rivaldo] 02/4/2009 08:51

Terrific update - as usual.

I just love that £3.7m cash pile - and rising fast.

WJ's figures reflect my only source of concern - a historic P/E of 17 isn't exactly cheap in this market, even for a global leader like IGP, so I'm not sure how much upside there is short-term without more news flow.

Nevertheless, this is one well-run company and is sure to continue to be a winner if it carries on like this.

[carly2] 02/4/2009 08:35

Thanks for that WJ

[wjccghcc] 02/4/2009 08:29

carly2, their costs will have risen quite a bit - when I last spoke to management in January, staff numbers had increased from 40 to the mid- 50's to handle all the new projects. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see some legal costs for the patent suit. Still, 1mm EBITDA gives an EPS of 2.7p and a historical PE of 17 for a global leader in the ID space growing revenues at 90%.

[rambutan2] 02/4/2009 08:19

great great great!

[carly2] 02/4/2009 08:17

Well done Intercede!
I am interested in the profit to 'exceed £1m' - given the turnover of 'at least' £5.3m, there has to be profit for the whole year nearer to £2m surely...

[aphrodites] 02/4/2009 08:08

Great update.

I repeat "Let's hope JM Finn can stimulate some interest in the company"!

With all that cash in the bank all we want now is the company to apply to buy its own shares back!!!!!

Just the threat will see the shares 25% higher.

And let's hope they have kept some in dollars.

[pre] 02/4/2009 08:07

Indeed...what an excellent update....

[billbyrne] 02/4/2009 07:56

Excellent trading update. I think we will be on more
peoples radar now. I expect a decent move north in the
share price between now and results. aimho

[felix99] 02/4/2009 07:37

bootiful ......as Bernard Matthews might say. PS I don;t wish to imply IGP is a turkey :-)

[jailbird] 02/4/2009 07:34

LOL...


This is just the beginning of the growth story.

[wjccghcc] 02/4/2009 07:31

Okay, I don't usually get excited but

"YEAH BABY!!!"

[4graham] 02/4/2009 07:06

Further to Intercede's Trading Update on 5 February 2009, we are pleased to report that the Company is continuing to experience high levels of interest in and demand for its MyID technology.


Pre audit indications of the results for the year ended 31 March 2009 are that revenues are likely to be more than 90% ahead of the previous year's reported revenues of £2.8m. A full year profit has been achieved for the first time in the Group's history and earnings before interest and tax are anticipated to exceed £1m. As a result of this performance, the cash balance at 31 March 2009 was £3.7m, compared to £1.2m at the same time last year.


This acceleration in Intercede's growth reflects the continued momentum from the Company's involvement in an increasing number of projects around the world with a consequential increase in revenues from software license sales, associated support & maintenance and the delivery of ongoing professional services assistance.


Intercede Chairman and Chief Executive Richard Parris said, "I am pleased to report a strengthening in demand for Intercede's products from both national governments and large enterprise customers. This is generating attractive financial returns at a time when general economic conditions around the world are difficult."


Intercede expects to announce its full year results for the year ended 31 March 2009 by mid June 2009.

[4graham] 02/4/2009 07:05

Wow Great update!