Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[the original goldbug] 06/7/2018 16:08

Well the board better produce a good set of results in early August if they are going to rebuild their credibility.

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 15:51

no prizes for the 1st to spot the contradiction in that statement..

[steeplejack] 06/7/2018 15:51

So it ends not with a bang but a whimper.Sadly,we're left with a management transfixed with their own remuneration.Echostar didn't flush out any clandestine bidders this time round.I suppose the price falls back to 450 odd,at least we know there's someone out there who'll bid 532p!Someone will take this company over at some future date.The only puzzle is when and at what price :)Time and time again,when a bid approach is made,all and sundry come out with fancy exit prices.Yet the starting point is always how that company has been valued in the market.Note Echostar today,understandably drawing attention to ISAT's bombed out valuation and the premium its offering.The bid calculations start at the bombed price of around 350p that shareholders considered ISAT was worth but a few months back.Good luck all,its been emotional

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 15:50

he Board of Inmarsat plc ("Inmarsat" or the "Company") notes today's further announcement by EchoStar Corporation ("EchoStar") that it does not intend to make an offer for Inmarsat.



The Board remains highly confident in the independent strategy and prospects of Inmarsat, given our track record, unique capabilities, differentiated market position and strong channels to market. Inmarsat will publish its interim year results for the period to 30 June 2018 on 2 August 2018 and will update the market on the Company's progress at that time.

[caorunn] 06/7/2018 15:47

A huge offload right at the close of play there. Someone waiting for announcement which never came perhaps?

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 15:41

leaves Echostar needing to answer more questions than ISAT if i'm honest but there you go..

maybe wishful thinking but be great if someone else came in and took ISAT out of the hands of Echostar now..

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 15:00

are we really going to see this fizzle out?

it's like transfer deadline day.. could do with some Jim White style hyperactive frenzy before the fat lady sings (no obese-directed malice intended) :)

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 14:57

TOG: bob-on there on all fronts.

zcap: hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B09LSH68/

[steeplejack] 06/7/2018 14:56

Alphaville today,lot of thoughts here..Lenghty but worth a read-


Inmarsat PLC (ISAT:LSE): Last: 492.80, down 33.2 (-6.31%), High: 493.73, Low: 467.80, Volume: 6.21
Albeit a very late-in-the-day bear hug. We still have a Panel deadline of 5pm.
BE
And unless something changes between now and then, it's over.
BE
(For six months, ignoring the usual whitewashes.)
11:09 am
BE
So ..... to recap the news, Echostar offered 532p per share on July 3, about half in cash.
pancakes or waffles as a sidenote, the world cup is back today. i have felt lost during the last 48 hours but help is finally here
BE
(You'll remember Inmarsat fell quite sharply that day on rumours that Echostar was trying to force the issue pre Independence Day.)
BE
Inmarsat told them to go away on July 4.
11:11 am
BE
Echostar now looking for an extension to the PUSU, but will need Inmarsat's cooperation for that.
nichoman surely echostar didn't actually think they'd be successful at £5.32 ?
Grouchmonkey Over? Surely not. Would be optimistic if Echostar thought 532 was enough
Grouchmonkey snap
BE
Is that possible? Maybe, depending on how things pan out in the shareholder meetings going on at this exact moment.
nichoman :)
BornCynic Morning
BE
Here's Wilton Fry, RBC's resident Inmarsat bull.
11:12 am
BE
We believe it would be difficult for the Inmarsat board to agree to a PUSU extension without any further proposal by Echostar as the board has already rejected the proposal. In our view, the statement by Echostar at 7am today enables both Echostar’s and Inmarsat’s advisors to go directly to shareholders, with Echostar’s proposal in hand, to gauge their collective reaction.
BE
In our view, the offer is a ‘low ball’ one, especially given the potential £10 per share of spectrum value that we believe Echostar could derive from owning Inmarsat. However it may be the right level to start a conversation with shareholders along the lines of “…well at what level would you start the negotiation at?”.

Depending on the feedback both parties receive, Echostar could (1) either raise its proposal in the hope that Inmarsat requests a PUSU extension (which would allow a negotiation), (2) table a formal offer, either at the current proposal price (unlikely), or a higher price, (3) let the deadline lapse and enter a private conversation with Inmarsat with aim of a reaching an agreed recommendation, (4) walk away.
Grouchmonkey Hard for Inmarsat directors not to agree an extension, given their fiduciary duty to shareholders
BE
(@Grouchmonkey: possibly, but impossible to engage unless Echostar raises, having done the "fundamentally undervalued" thing.)
Maverick Gents a lot going around on Integrafin, heard anything r.e. Bid Spec...?
Hamster on a Piano dwadline lapse & walk away is effectively the same thing. 2.8 announcement surely
11:15 am
BE
And Jefferies.
BE
(@Hamster: yeah, I'd note RBC is suggesting there that Echostar/Inmarsat break the law. You can't have private conversations once you're in the six-month purgatory period.)
BE
EchoStar's revised offer of 532p/share has not surprisingly been rejected by Inmarsat (massive FCF per share accretion, well below intrinsic value). EchoStar will for now continue to pursue the recommended offer route, but given the evident "bid-ask" spread, and Ergen / EchoStar's evident unwillingness to bid-up in uncontested M&A, we could see EchoStar turn hostile in time.
BornCynic Anyone clock what the Singapore government has done to their property market?
11:18 am
BE
Now, Inmarsat lacks a key shareholder. Lansdowne, Jupiter, Artemis are all big but none big enough to lead the negotiation here.
BE
You also have some concerns about Echostar's ability to pay much more.
BE
Here's Numis.
alewis2005 Happy friday people
11:20 am
BE
EchoStar has c.£3.5bn EV and just 0.5x net debt/EBITDA. It earns most value from selling satellite broadband connectivity in the US and the Americas, and delivering TV channels for Dish, its sister company. Charles Ergen controls both corporates and is also heavily invested in US spectrum. EchoStar overlaps little with ISAT's business so cost savings will be minor; it has no real involvement in L-band businesses (greater than 80% of ISAT's sales) so revenue synergies will be minor also. In addition, EchoStar may have to give up its European S-band license as ISAT owns the other of the two.
BE
Some believe EchoStar will table a firm offer for ISAT because it is interested in the target’s spectrum; the view is that EchoStar will ask regulatory permission to use this spectrum for terrestrial (rather than satellite) mobile services. The risks for EchoStar are significant, not least because those who to date have paid very high prices in auctions for terrestrial mobile spectrum will object vociferously.
BE
Which ties back to a point we've made repeatedly here. If we're seeing Inmarsat as a strategic asset because of its involvement with Ligado, buying it is a binary gamble on Ligado's regulatory approval.
11:22 am
BE
Ergen likes a gamble. But how much?
nichoman @BornCynic no what have they done ?
JimboRock DLG shareprice in need of Winston Wolf - any info appreciated
BornCynic Nichoman - thrown a bucket of cold water on it. Try googling "Singapore Announces Surprise Property Curbs to Cool Market"
BE
You'll note that Echostar doesn't make any reference to Ligado in its "strategically compelling" statement this morning.
JuB need a CVR to define the FCC/Ligado risk
BE
As UBS says ...............
11:24 am
BE
LN can lead to a wide range of valuations for Inmarsat and could be a substantial driver of EchoStar's interest. We value the underlying Inmarsat business at 340p, .....
BornCynic Sort of the exact opposite of the help to buy scheme here..............
BE
So, it's a gamble on both sides of the trade. Clearly.
BE
Anyway, we'll come back to it if there's anything else before midday.

[zcaprd7] 06/7/2018 14:42

According to today's MoneyWeek, as of 2nd July, inmarsat is at 9.65% short interest, as a new entry into the top 10...

[the original goldbug] 06/7/2018 14:40

It was a dislocated market with all the yield players bailing. The growth investors were sceptical (for good reason) still Echostar can’t really believe they would have picked this up for a smidgeon over £5.

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 14:06

zcaprd7, i am not condoning shorters and their actions, however, market distortions create opportunities.. ultimately they need to close their positions too which if you're on the right side of the deal can be quite a big surf..

again not supporting shorters (as i am not one and never engage in shorting), for the record the highest % ISAT was shorted was only 8% of issued shares back in Nov 2017.. at that time the price was c. 500p.. since then the short position has come down to around 5.75% prior to Echostar's announcement with the price at 473p..

you might find it strange but as of yesterday that short position is still at 5.8% even after the rise from the lows and the fall from the highs last week of 642p..

When the short psoition is anything above 12% of the shares in circulation then you could say the shorters are manipulating/destabilising prices.. anything less and it's more position management, hedging etc. and an element of shorting..


not always as it seems.

just food for thought.

[volsung] 06/7/2018 13:17

Something is afoot and it ain’t at the end of my leg

[zcaprd7] 06/7/2018 12:56

Selling on the market for £3.50...not if the market has been distorted by a short selling campaign and momentum traders?£6 was the 3 year low until recently, so they can start with a decent premium that...

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 11:20

dex - the big boys will make the final decision (big shareholders i.e. funds) these guys are smart cookies and will trade off any bid against the management's ability to deliver - and that certainly is in doubt.

TOG - if something is worth £10 to you say, and it's selling on the market for £3.50 what would you pay to get it? not being funny, it's business albeit they're trying to get a steal deal.

Losos - don't blame you mate, you've done well to hang in there from c.£7.. from that perspective I hope all the long suffering PI's cover their losses.

back on watching brief..

[losos] 06/7/2018 11:07

kalkaar - I'm with gambo on the general morality of parties here, but I also agree with you that there's nothing us PI's can do. It's 2018 after all and any semblance of honour and dignity went out the door decades ago haha.

If I could get out around 750 I'd be happy, 700 would mean a small loss, I lost interest when they cut the divi, unlike all the traders on here I rely on divi's to make life a little more comfortable.

So 5 hours to go, I think I'll pass on the offer to listen in to all the 'chat' and just come back after 5pm haha has been a very long time since I had shares in a company in this situation.

[the original goldbug] 06/7/2018 11:03

Echostar must think the British are a right bunch of patsies if a bid at 530 was going to be accepted.

[dexdringle] 06/7/2018 11:01

Surely £5.32 would leave the vast majority of holders under water ?

[steeplejack] 06/7/2018 10:39

And the current price action seems to be suggesting that the two parties could get together for talks which might lead to an extension.....or that Echostar will formalise it's offer.

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 10:35

so the guys possibly think Echostar have got the RNS out early doors so that they (their advisors) can use that as a starting point for negotiations.. options pretty much as i had outlined earlier..

can't help thinking they've left this all too late - tactic or not, the ISAT board seem pretty steadfast in their position.

keep your eyes on the price action, that will always tell the story prior to the RNS's

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 10:14

if you want to follow:

daily for an hour 11am.. resident FT experts with City contacts

[kalkaar] 06/7/2018 10:13

from the guys on FT Alphaville:

Echostar now looking for an extension to the PUSU, but will need Inmarsat's cooperation for that.

11:11 am
BE
Is that possible? Maybe, depending on how things pan out in the shareholder meetings going on at this exact moment.

11:12 am
BE
Here's Wilton Fry, RBC's resident Inmarsat bull.

11:13 am
BE
We believe it would be difficult for the Inmarsat board to agree to a PUSU extension without any further proposal by Echostar as the board has already rejected the proposal. In our view, the statement by Echostar at 7am today enables both Echostar’s and Inmarsat’s advisors to go directly to shareholders, with Echostar’s proposal in hand, to gauge their collective reaction.

11:13 am
BE
In our view, the offer is a ‘low ball’ one, especially given the potential £10 per share of spectrum value that we believe Echostar could derive from owning Inmarsat. However it may be the right level to start a conversation with shareholders along the lines of “…well at what level would you start the negotiation at?”.

Depending on the feedback both parties receive, Echostar could (1) either raise its proposal in the hope that Inmarsat requests a PUSU extension (which would allow a negotiation), (2) table a formal offer, either at the current proposal price (unlikely), or a higher price, (3) let the deadline lapse and enter a private conversation with Inmarsat with aim of a reaching an agreed recommendation, (4) walk away.