Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 06/7/2018 06:18

The market seems to have predicted the low ball offer with uncanny accuracy.It's too low by a good pound even as an opening shot.I can't see Inmarsat being bullied by institutions to sit down and discuss such a disappointing offer.

[argylerich] 06/7/2018 06:16

Echostar not exactly offering generous terms so far, now let's see if anyone else throws their hat in the ring.

[kamitora] 06/7/2018 06:12

It seems to me the big shareholders were indicating they'd take things seriously from 650 and EchoStar appear to have decided to channel Trump instead and give them the finger. I'm not entirely sure they've helped their credibility here.

I like that the ISAT board rejected the offer on Independence Day.

[wynmck] 06/7/2018 06:04

RNS from Echostar

[zcaprd7] 05/7/2018 21:59

The can go low and see what happens? They can always raise their offer later if softbank get involved?

[the original goldbug] 05/7/2018 17:27

It kinda of is. You may remember the stock got ramped before they went public with their interest so they are leaky for sure.

All very difficult to prove of course...

[dexdringle] 05/7/2018 16:14

"The share price fall of the last few days suggests someone knows something we don’t..."

Is that not a definition of 'insider trading' ?

[the original goldbug] 05/7/2018 15:59

I added to my position by a third at the close, which somewhat ironically is about my average entry price in the first place.

The share price fall of the last few days suggests someone knows something we don’t, however if the playing field is level it does look like an interesting risk reward at this price.

[the original goldbug] 05/7/2018 15:11

Problem is if they don’t do something sensible they could well be pipped by a larger player.

Especially if there is a sense the Ligado spectrum is really valuable. Maybe someone with more technical insight could comment on that please.

[kalkaar] 05/7/2018 15:09

can't see how a low ball offer will help Echostar as they could get embroiled in a bidding war with another predator lurking in the background..

if they are serious about ISAT then you would think they need to get a bid approved without delay..

even then they run the risk of being trumped..

so it definitely is a case of put up or shut up in so far as Echostar is now concerned.

[the original goldbug] 05/7/2018 15:03

Problem is if they don’t do something sensible they could well be pipped by a larger player.

Especially if there is a sense the Ligado spectrum is really valuable. Maybe someone with more technical insight could comment on that please.

[the original goldbug] 05/7/2018 15:00

Who is Groundhog and what is Alphaville, is it another chat board like this?

[steeplejack] 05/7/2018 14:56

Groundhog Day opening comment on Alphaville is interesting.Predicates that Echostar might even make a lowball offer just to keep things rolling."Have you heard anything re inmarsat? Deafening silence. But usually would not have expected this silence if the deal were off already. Ie still seems plausible no agreement on price, but smells like Echostar would make a bid to keep deal alive at the very least, even if the price would then still move to get mgmt approval. Only my thoughts. What do you think?"

[the original goldbug] 05/7/2018 14:40

I thought the RBC piece was quite thought provoking.

One is tempted to think the last minute decision is because they are trying to line up a sensible deal with their bankers.

It is a valid point that if they go hostile they could lose the deal due to the regulatory concerns.

[7ran5ac710n] 05/7/2018 13:31

patience est amer, mais ses fruits sont doux.

[gambo555] 05/7/2018 11:18

discussion on alphaville...

"BE
(@Groundhog: I'd give you odds of 3/2 on an extension, evens on a bid below 700p and 3/1 on a walk away. All total speculation on my part.)"

[argylerich] 05/7/2018 08:04

Tick, tock, tick, tock.... 32hrs to go!

[gambo555] 04/7/2018 12:58

In a note to clients, analysts at RBC Capital said that there is a high probability that Echostar will make a formal offer for Inmarsat, with an initial bid of around 650p a share.

In lunchtime trading, Inmarsat shares were changing hands at 528p each, up 3.3% on Tuesday’s close.

However, the RBC analysts said: “Whatever the initial offer, we think it will take an offer of at least 750p to gain any board or shareholder approval.”

And, they added: “Given the political backdrop (sensitive satellite infrastructure) we believe Echostar is likely to need a recommended offer as a hostile bid could allow the company to seek political protection.”

Looking at potential counter-bidders, the RBC analysts said they would also consider Japan’s SoftBank as a very credible bidder given its investment in satellite operator OneWeb, its previous attempt to buy rival Intelsat, and its global Internet of Things strategy and connections to Ligado – the company developing a satellite-terrestrial network to support 5G and IoT applications in North America

The analysts concluded that although regulatory uncertainty may keep the bid spread wide (c.15%), they reiterated an ‘outperform217; rating and 850p price target on Inmarsat shares.

[argylerich] 04/7/2018 12:16

stun124 Jul '18 - 13:07 - 3611 of 3612
0 0 0
Ah, the old millpond formation graph. Thought it had been suspended, but maybe just the shermans being off today.

Just ADVFN needing to put another 50p in the meter to keep the live feed going :-)

[steeplejack] 04/7/2018 12:08

Wilton Fry at RBC, for instance.

In our view there is a very high probability that Echostar bids due to: (a) need for speed: delaying by 6 months gains nothing and risks either a White Knight (or other bidder), and/or losing the battle for Ligado by the time Echostar gains control of Inmarsat, (b) regulatory approval: Delaying will not reveal whether regulatory approval will be given, c) positioning: Echostar's convertible position indicates to us a very strong desire to limit leakage in the post acquisition conversion.

In summary we believe the most likely outcome (c.60% probability) is an initial offer of c.650p, 20% probability of a low-ball (less than 600p) offer and 20% probability of a 'knockout' offer. Whatever the initial offer, we think it will take an offer of at least 750p to gain any board or shareholder approval. Given the political backdrop (sensitive satellite infrastructure) we believe Echostar is likely to need a recommended offer as a hostile bid could allow the company to seek political protection.

[stun12] 04/7/2018 12:07

Ah, the old millpond formation graph. Thought it had been suspended, but maybe just the shermans being off today.

[the original goldbug] 04/7/2018 12:06

Can someone copy and paste the FT stuff please?

[kalkaar] 04/7/2018 11:50

patience the order of the last number of days..

i tend to agree Echostar likely to bid in the 600's but would probably need to be 700's to gain board/shareholder approval..

big couple of days ahead once the Americans have popped a few corks today..

[kamitora] 04/7/2018 11:18

And covered here: