Iog Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 01/8/2022 12:28

Agree with that.
Meanwhile I'm back in the red here (just!). What a fickle share (I know nothing goes up in a straight line 😉 ) although I see SQZ is down as well so non-specific, presumably spot gas is down a tad today. Top up time if I can find any funds.

[hpcg] 01/8/2022 11:46

Sorry my one liner on Rough has caused some confusion it seems.

Short term (this winter): Rough is nearly irrelevant, there isn't enough gas in Europe, prices will be at the max the market can bear. UK is not immune because of the LNG portion of our consumption is globally price. Rough is still worth having because our current storage isn't sufficient to balance the demand drop of a mild windy week.

Medium term (spring, summer): There won't be any price drops to zero like the occasional day this year because Rough storage will take up any and all slack. The price will be set by a combination of Rough and inter-connector capacity to European storage from a practical side, and by forward supply contracts for UK consumers and businesses from Rough and the equivalent in the EU. Difficult to tell the quantum; if no Russian supply then high prices.

Long term (next winter and beyond): Lower but steady winter prices. The general trend will be a more stable price. The magnitude of the price will be dependent on many factors not least German LNG import capacity and I also expect the Dutch reversal of the closure of the Groningen gas field to be permanent: its closure in the first place was an absolutely absurd decisions (cracking in houses from subsidence - just make it a liability of the field operator).

[officerdigby] 01/8/2022 11:11

Rough should.. 'should' stabilise UK gas prices to the high side closer to TTF.In the same way that TTF is high because its stores are not full.....Untill it's full...By then though even with Rough, UK will most likely be exposed by lack of storage versus Euroland. With NBP spiking.

[lord gnome] 01/8/2022 11:09

Exactly, hpcg. You have to put gas in before you can get gas out. The one possibility is that we stop sending our surplus LNG supplies to Europe and use it to fill Rough. That would be a political decision rather than a practical one.

[hpcg] 01/8/2022 11:07

Rough is empty.

[johnkidd1] 01/8/2022 09:25

If Rough comes online it will be fed straight into grid to help make up for shortfall in available gas. Suppliers will greatful for any supply availability in the next18 months. Forget full reservoirs we will be lucky to make it through the winter without blackouts and rationing.

[bountyhunter] 31/7/2022 20:13

Which means if Rough comes online this winter it would be difficult to utilise it at that time, especially this winter the way things are looking. Next spring/summer there may still be a shortage in supply depending on the situation with NS1, although longer term Rough should help reduce price volatility.

[hpcg] 31/7/2022 18:43

Gas storage is filled in the summer and emptied in the winter.

[bountyhunter] 31/7/2022 14:33

If there is sufficient gas to fill it during the winter months? Germany and the rest of Europe to a lesser extent will be in dire need of gas this winter if Putin continues along the current path. Any excess supplies may be directed there with German storage facilities already depleted and rationing on the cards.

[hpcg] 31/7/2022 10:37

dilip40 - not an especially relevant question with Southwark slated to come online in Q4 and doubling production. Assuming Rough comes back online at the end of this year then I would anticipate lower but more stable gas prices next spring and summer.

[maxidi] 31/7/2022 10:22

Interesting. Nice to see GB making progress in self sufficiency.

Mining giant Anglo American says progress is being made at its multimillion-pound North Yorkshire and Teesside fertiliser operation.

In an update to investors Anglo said the project - which will access the world's largest known deposit of natural fertiliser polyhalite - had "continued to progress to our updated plan". The plc previously introduced a technical review and changes to the design of the mine which it said would result in a longer road to completion and operation than anticipated under the project's previous owners Sirius Minerals.

[dilip40] 31/7/2022 08:21

On average gas price of 200p and current production what would free cash flow over next 12 months

[maxidi] 28/7/2022 08:35

sell price. IOG PLC ORD GBP0.01 at a price of 37.83p. (At the moment)
Looking decent!

[hpcg] 27/7/2022 19:43

edgar - they are promising investor returns, and interest is tax deductible, so debt is fine. Should be able to get away with a low interest rate. Debt is always more available to those that don't need it.

[edgar222] 27/7/2022 17:21

Oops. Long day. Bad maths. £1.2m per day at £4 per therm. So 3 months.

[edgar222] 27/7/2022 17:05

HpcgAlternatively, repay the entire bond from under 2 months income?;)

[marvelman] 27/7/2022 15:01

Thanks hpcg...that is what I am hoping and would be the perfect scenario

[hpcg] 27/7/2022 14:29

mavelman - development will be paid for from FCF, spending this year is already in the hat with existing cash, and carry. Refinance of part of the existing bond could be done in numerous ways: reserve based lending, a revolver, a smaller bond issue etc.

[tidy 2] 27/7/2022 14:04

ANGS is hedged to the hilt and they don't know the flows yet.

[bountyhunter] 27/7/2022 13:35

NBP gas day ahead up 11% from 320p yesterday...

July 27, 2022
GAS
Day Ahead - 365.00p/th
Year Ahead - 456.11p/th
Front Quarter - 555.12p/th
Front Month - 413.61p/th

We must be due another tick up soon although 1/2p a day is fine by me.

[redflag2023] 27/7/2022 10:43

Gas price surge: Costs skyrocket to 4 times higher than last year as Putin limits suppliesBTs in Angus energy1.2p Soon be first gas any day 70mill revenue a year 25p Don't miss the pump of all pumps

[maxidi] 27/7/2022 10:33

marvelman

Your post is more sense than mine. Think I'll go back to bed. LOL

[maxidi] 27/7/2022 10:30

oops I think I got the windfall story wrong. Sorry guys/gals...

[marvelman] 27/7/2022 10:28

While on that subject it would see that IOG will not be paying CT due to tax losses accrued and hopefully not too much WT once new investment is applied to it. I assume that with the Bond payment coming up there will be little room for investment cash from FCF and therefore funding will have to be raised via equity or loans

[marvelman] 27/7/2022 10:21

Well that didn't last long. So much for cutting Corporation Tax and encouraging businesses to invest. While the WF tax is not Corporation Tax it is still a tax on investment. I am assuming she has not offered up a further hit of an increased WT....they really are all the same these politicians whichever the side of the fence they are on. Edit...I see you mean electricity suppliers...I am on the fence myself on that one