Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 29/8/2018 19:56

Agree with that . My portfolio is just about +1% for 2018 🤔

[danieldruff2] 29/8/2018 14:27

I always thought the dividend policy, and high debt, was a defensive move by the management to put off potential suitors

[essentialinvestor] 29/8/2018 12:53

I would prefer IMB to BATS fwiw.

What I disagree agree with on IMB is the dividend policy,
it's now beginning to look a little reckless, pay off more debt and
reset the dividend % increases lower.

[grahamite2] 28/8/2018 15:02

I have been looking at this for the first time lately and think it has much to offer. The negative £1bn figure on retained earnings looks ugly, though.

[essentialinvestor] 28/8/2018 14:55

Mentioned JUUL last year, they are now estimated to have captured 68%
of the US vape market. Blu had a dominant market share a years back.
JUUL is a JV with Japan Tobacco.

[philanderer] 27/8/2018 00:39

'New Investigation Exposes How Tobacco Companies Market Cigarettes on Social Media in the U.S. and Around the World'

Health Groups urge U.S. Federal Trade Commission to investigate companies' failure to disclose paid advertising

[mayzerg] 26/8/2018 20:34

hxxps:// helpingthelittleguy.com/why-you-should-invest-in-imperial-brands/

[mayzerg] 26/8/2018 20:34

Sorry I posted the wrong link...

hxxps://helpingthelittleguy.com/why-you-should-invest-in-imperial-brands/

[mayzerg] 26/8/2018 20:32

Shares are still extremely cheap, especially when free-cash-flow per share is likely to increase to around £3.20-£3.40, meaning even a share price of £32-34 is still cheap! 6% yield and 10% growth!? Easy buy!

helpingthelittleguy.com/why-you-should-invest-in-imperial-brands/

[philanderer] 24/8/2018 21:41

Financial Times..

Jefferies today downgrading Philip Morris and Altria Group to 'hold'.. citing slower adoption of “reduced risk” tobacco products than previously forecast.

Reiterated BATS and IMB as 'buys'...BAT has the first-mover advantage in the US vapour market, IMB also well positioned .

[this_time_its_different] 24/8/2018 18:25

I still go by the motto, "be greedy when others are fearful" and trust me, others are fearful now. We are most likely going to get a near double bottom, I feel the selling is overdone in IMB and now is a good time to get in. Psychologically we need to hold £30, then we can rally past £32 easily onto resistance at £36.

[this_time_its_different] 24/8/2018 18:22

warranty I agree, tobacco over the last year has been in freefall, I don't understand why. For something that is meant to hold a low beta, 2-3% swings are normal unfortunately, which is weird. The market is pricing in a decline in business, which I don't see. How much higher can the yield be pushed before buyers come in, most of these drops are panic selling and new money being forced into FANG. Fundamentals will prevail I hope in the long run.

[warranty] 24/8/2018 17:22

What a poor week nearly two pounds down for only a 29p dividend. It clawed its way back up over months and all gone in a few days and this is supposed to be a "safe" stock. I'm so far underwater with my supposedly "safe" portfolio I might as well have gambled on AIM!!

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2018 13:10

Daniel, it's s fair point and that was also my view until recently-
there would be consolidation, partly driven by innovation and economies
of scale. It may happen, however it's not what I see atm.

[danieldruff2] 24/8/2018 12:34

Very large companies can wait for others to innovate and buy out the winners.

[essentialinvestor] 24/8/2018 12:05

Yes there are growing numbers of people who vape,
however many non tobacco companies are selling vape kits/liquids.
Online buying means tobacco companies no longer control product distribution
in vape, liquids etc.

The other factor worth keeping in mind is debt levels-
the sector has very significantly geared up balance sheets.
Remember just a few years ago both BATS and IMB were regularly buying back shares.
No longer possible with gearing levels.

Would not be confident enough to say this is a value trap
and there will be plenty of trading opportunities regardless,
as per the last few months sharp moves.

[philanderer] 24/8/2018 11:27

Yes, it looks like 2800p isn't even going to hold.


"Tobacco giant Philip Morris wants to be a ‘disruptive insider’ as it targets the smoke-free market"

In order to realise its ambition to stop selling cigarettes, Philip Morris International is hoping to claim a sizeable stake of the smoke-free market and persuade government that advertising restrictions are 30 years out of date.

[this_time_its_different] 24/8/2018 10:18

Why is IMB dropping still? There are tons of people who smoke and vape, this stock really shouldn't be below £30.

STRONG BUY

[dogwalker] 23/8/2018 20:15

Good post EJ!

[jrphoenixw2] 22/8/2018 11:50

re: Phil/1029. Thanks.

After reading your comment I came upon this in the Telegraph:
'The pressure on sterling and emerging markets from the dollar’s recent surge was alleviated by the US president criticising the Fed’s quickening pace of rate rises. Mr Trump reportedly said at a fundraiser that he thought Jerome Powell would be a ‘cheap money’ Fed chair, boosting sterling as much as 0.7pc against the dollar to $1.2878.
British American Tobacco led the FTSE 100’s big dollar earners lower, dropping 100p to £41.23, while Diageo dragged on the index after edging down 31.5p to £27.67....'

[speedsgh] 22/8/2018 10:23

Look out, cigarettes have a cool young rival -

Vaping may be a sensible way to wean smokers off the real thing but we’d be mad to give it an unqualified thumbs-up...