Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[chadders] 07/1/2018 12:40

harbourside, you've hit the nail on the head.

[professor bang bang] 07/1/2018 12:31

Phase 2b improvement rates with Lupuzor in the moderate to severe subgroup (SLEDAI >= 6) which is the criteria for inclusion in Phase 3:

Phase 2b at 3 months = + 67.6%
Phase 2b at 6 months = + 84.2%
Phase 3 at 9 - 12 months = + 100% ??

The above data was so good at the indermediate analysis point during the Phase 2a trial, they were allowed to end it early and begin planning for Phase 3, for which they were then awarded the 'gold standard' of a SPA and Fast Track status by the US FDA. For me it is not now about whether lupuzor works but just how big the improvement will be at 9, and 12 months and how many $billions IMM will be worth (particularly as there is independently corroborated evidence the P140 platform may be efficaceous in 12+ high value indicatrions, e.g. lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohn's, Guillan-Barre, Gougerot-Sjögren, etc.).

N.B.
Resetting the Autoreactive Immune System with a Therapeutic Peptide in Lupus
Prof. Sylvian Muller
Lupus (2015) 24, pg 412–418

"The phase IIb trial showed that after three months of therapy (three subcutaneous injections of 200 ug peptide/patient in addition to standard of care), Lupuzor improved Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score of lupus patients under active treatment by 67.6% versus 41.5% in the placebo group (p<0.025). After three additional months of follow-up, the improvement rate was 84.2% versus 45.8% (p<0.025). The side effect profile was unproblematic and the drug was well tolerated as evidenced by a very low drop-out rate."

www.lupuzor.com/Documents/Schall%20Muller%20Lupus%202015.pdf

[professor bang bang] 07/1/2018 12:20

waterloo, IMM had a placing in March 2017 specifically to provide enough cash to last though to end 2018 and allow them to negotiate a deal or takeover from a position of strength following Phase 3 Lupuzor results in Q1 2018. The placing was infact oversubscribed and they raised £4.1m, which was £1.1m more than the minimum £3m sought.

The last thing IMM need now is a fund raising and it could actually be counter productive, as a takeover buyer would then have to purchase even more stock to obtain the company than at present, and it would dilute any price rise which share holders (including management and institutional + private investors) and share option holders (including management) seek.

If the Phase 3 results are as good as I expect, IMM will be inundated with cash offers. Cephalon previously offered them $545m ($15m + $30m upfront, + $500m staged payments) just on Phase 2a data (even before the superb Phase 2b results). GSK paid HGSi $3.6 billion for their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta, effectively valuing 100% at $7 billion.

[waterloo01] 07/1/2018 11:58

If I were running the company, if a deal isn't done pre results, I'd raise £20m now, while the share price is hot just in case. It would be very prudent as regardless of the results they would have the cash on hand to either run further trials or and strengthen their negotiating hands.

There is probably enough interest to get it away without much if any discount. One for the pipe smokers.

[harbourside] 07/1/2018 11:55

Don’t usually post on BB’s but have to say njb67 seems to be a perfect definiation of ‘False witness’. That said, he is good though, starts with the positive buy in statement but ever so subtlely introduces little niggles, I wouldn’t mind betting you’ve been trained in sales techniques, disturbance techniques that sort of thing. I would love to believe some of the high valuations on here, be absolutely great if they come true, tend to believe more moderate estimations and like everyone else are aware that a failure means share freefall, but weighing up everything we know and have read so far you have to be quietly positive. There are accounts from lupus sufferers who have been granted use of Lupuzor and stated it was the best Lupus drug they have had, made them feel like they no longer had the illness. I hope for total success of this drug for the 5 million people it could possibly help, be good to show a profit on something noble for once. GLA that are invested.

[bazzer13] 07/1/2018 11:37

One point to rjb is they had funding to the end of 2018, but then gained another 600 k through the landstead deal,

Rjb isnt a investor here, yes you can invest then ask questions or say this may happen, but go on and on about negative points, its deramping , you wouldnt invest and do this.
So we can assume your not invested.

Everything is pointing to a repeat of ph11 results you can not denny this.
Of course there is a risk that they are not as good and funding is required, but this is already known, but not expected.

Deals can always been done with the nucant technology or uyilix ( can never spell that)

My suggestion to all is dont look at these bb untill the results are announced.

[w1ndjammer] 07/1/2018 10:49

Keep going guys you are now top of the free BB charts with 11%
knocking UKOG of top spot which they have held for weeks at 9%

WJ.

[runtoma] 07/1/2018 10:45

Immupharma is looking like the Frankel of the Pharma industry. Fourfold so far for me

[qazwsxedc69] 07/1/2018 10:41

Maybe - but not every BB has already 8 bagged (for me at least) before the real news has even dropped.

[volsung] 07/1/2018 10:18

Every BB thread promises infinite wealth. 99% are bs. Believe me I've invested in many of them. Good to have a bit of comment bringing posters back to earth.

[hitsha1] 07/1/2018 10:15

I meant £5-to£10 by end of the week

[flavio_monteiro] 07/1/2018 10:09

NJB67...I am sure they will be looking to licence their Cancer drug. Upfront payment and milestone..... IMM is not a one drug company!

I believe it will be the only licensing deal until FDA approval on Lupuzor.

[wigwammer] 07/1/2018 10:06

NjbSo if the trial is successful, the shares rise and there is no issue with funding.If the trial is inconclusive, the shares fall and all bets are off.Not exactly enlightening, but thanks for sharing the view anyway :)

[njb67] 07/1/2018 10:02

wig - no, not at all

Which bit of that is not true? They only have funds to the end of the year and without a deal will need to raise money. I had said in an earlier post that the no deal scenario would result from not having a licence due to Ph3 results being inconclusive. So a fund raising with serious question marks over the Lup and P140 platform will imo be heavily dilutive to existing shareholders and the share price much reduced from where it is today.

I also said if the results are positive, then a deal or bridging finance until a deal is in place (IMM are not big enough to bring this to market alone) should be relatively straight forward.

Appreciate there are a lot of posts, it may though make sense to read them through rather than respond to one in isolation.

[wigwammer] 07/1/2018 09:52

This is njb's post that I originally responded to:"IMM need to do a deal before the end of the year, which weakens their bargaining power. No deal would lead to an emergency fund raising, which is never good for shareholders."He has changed his tune.

[ytsa2] 07/1/2018 09:50

There is nothing I can see on LSE to say big pharma to come in. Only thing mentioned is licence deal. Do you really think so will rise to 5 or £10 !!

[spawny100] 07/1/2018 09:47

As wigwammer said though it's effectively a non-point that most investors with any common sense here are already aware of so why labour the non-point so much?

[njb67] 07/1/2018 09:39

Rab - I agree. Made same point in 8811.

[rabito79] 07/1/2018 09:19

njb, I am sorry but your point is only valid on a failed trial. As others have stated if phase 3 is successful it will be very easy for IMM to raise cash, wether by a small dilution or loan similar to MTFBs.Please note I accept trial failure is a possibility as do the majority of this board.

[hamhamham1] 07/1/2018 09:13

For anyone looking for easy view videos to give a background to Immupharma and in particular to the Lupuzor drug.
Watch the 2 videos here, one investor and one science.
DYOR, GLA, RTF
Investor:

Science:

[njb67] 07/1/2018 09:08

1Retirement - exactly. I made this same point in 8804.

One suitor and the financial position of IMM is an issue for them as it can be exploited. The more suitors then the less chance they can exploit it, it does not though go away. At the eleventh hour your preferred suitor comes back with a revised lower take it or leave it offer when you have no time to go back to other parties. In your housing analogy, your purchaser drops their offer price by £ks just prior to exchange of contracts and you have time/other pressures to complete the transaction.

The bigger issue is how they raise funds IF phase 3 does not lead to a licence in 2018 and how much of the company is given away as a result.

I know this is not a popular view and that it contradicts the certain unimaginable wealth story that has been pedaled here and across BBs relentlessly. Whatever your views of me and whether you trust my motives or not is not relevant here. Go get a second opinion, speak to someone you know/trust and get their view on this.

As someone who has been investing a long time, I know from personal experience that you need to really understand the risks and think through what would happen to your investment if these scenarios played out.

IMM has a good chance of proving that Lup works at least as well as Benlysta in treating Lupus. If this plays out, then we will be looking at an share price north of here. It is though possible that this does not happen and we do not have a licence this year, in which case shareholder equity will be significantly diminished, perhaps totally. That is the risk we are taking on.

I have no plans to post again until the results. I know I have said this previously, but having now set out what has been troubling me - the Ph3/future funding issue - I am not sure I have anything much more to add. I may respond to any questions that are directed at me.

Feel free to DM me if you want to continue discussions off the board.

Seriously folk, I hope IMM delivers all that we want it to be.

GLA

[vatpaul] 07/1/2018 08:47

Wonder which big pharma?

;-)

[hitsha1] 07/1/2018 08:45

Imm my biggest holding could make my retirement come early, but not selling out until I get £20+.

[mcdermov] 07/1/2018 08:44

At the AIM awards this year a senior Lanstead executive expressed to a colleague on mine disappointment that IMMU did not renew their funding arrangement with Lanstead. The decision not to raise funds is therefore not based on lack of options.

[hitsha1] 07/1/2018 08:41

Tomorrow should be interesting opening, between £5-£10, because someone on LSE board mentions deal with big pharma, happpy days