Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[bazzer13] 07/1/2018 17:37

A bit of old reading and in french, but states 5 million sufferers wordwide.

hxxp://www2.cnrs.fr/presse/communique/4343.htm

hxxp://www.bfmtv.com/sante/un-traitement-prometteur-pour-soigner-le-lupus-1151988.html

[runtoma] 07/1/2018 17:36

I no longer find hamham annoying

[l0ngterm] 07/1/2018 17:09

And I wonder who is hiding in the background marking down any positive posts.Console myself with the fact the majority of posters are aware of risks but have a positive view on the company as a whole.

[runtoma] 07/1/2018 16:54

Phew Just look at long winded boring repetitive poster medical rep NJB67. If you have trouble sleeping read his posts. Otherwise don't bother. He has said it all twenty times before. Just read the responses. They tell you all you want to know

[hamhamham1] 07/1/2018 16:49

njb67. Usually when I am thinking about investing, I weigh up the pros and cons then make a judgement and then invest (or not).
Whereas you say you have invested (£20,000) then subsequently spend all you time fretting here about the prospect of pending doom.
I have never seen this approach before?
If you don't think it's worth the risk then sell and put your money in something else or just keep it under your bed.

[perfect pete] 07/1/2018 16:16

Do we know if any of the candidates from earlier trials have come to light or openly aired any opinions?

[l0ngterm] 07/1/2018 16:15

I don't have a membership, but they are reporting significant returns and success rates from their portfolios.Also noted they seem to meet with industry experts, and the companies directly.Anyone here a member and can possible comment

[njb67] 07/1/2018 16:15

Long

The financing agreement with Darwin removes the most extreme risk of them running out of cash. They would need to trigger this before May, when the agreement is due to lapse, unless they can extend/renew the agreement.

What we do not know is at what price the shares would be issued so how much dilution would occur. I would also want to know why IMM chose to raise £16m between Feb 16 and Mar 17 (26p/share, 35p/share and 52p/share) via three separate fund raising activities rather than draw on the Darwin agreement? It would suggest to me that the Darwin terms are less favourable to existing shareholders.

So the two big risks for me remain:
- Will the phase 3 results confirm that Lup is at least as good as Benlysta?
- In the event that the phase 3 results are not conclusive and we do not get a licence in 2018, then by how much will existing shareholders be diluted by any fundraising activity?


Happy

I wish I was being paid!

I have posted my bear points on the board, in part to counter some of the mindless ramping but also to pressure test my own thinking. That for me is a really important part of investing, working through what could go wrong and what that would mean. This board does not need someone else talking up IMM prospects, so I have foucussed on the downside risk.


Whether you believe what I have said about my approach/motives and that I am invested here or not is actually unimportant. What is important though is that you look at the questions I have raised and make your own mind up on them.

I am invested on the balance of upside vs downside. I certainly would not be posting extensively on something I did not own.

GLA

[ny boy] 07/1/2018 16:15

I think a few on here are getting paranoid about certain posters, no one can influence the share price alone, personally as I started buying these from 52p, i’m Not bothered even if these pull back, I would simply add more, as I am fairly confident of positive newsflow from the Company in a few weeks or so, in which case, I see the share price materially higher.

It would be difficult to keep the lid on excellent results, therefore you could see some clues in the share price action just before the release of news.

Anyway, unless you are in very recently, you are not bothered if these are -20p or +20p next week. GLA!

[l0ngterm] 07/1/2018 16:00

Take on another 139 million dollars as gsk has spent this on expanding production of benlysta. So GSK obviously see further growth in the market. https://us.gsk.com/en-us/media/press-releases/2017/gsk-invests-139-million-to-expand-production-capacity-for-benlysta-belimumab-in-rockville-md/

[middlesboroughfc] 07/1/2018 15:50

professor bang bang7 Jan '18 - 12:31 - 8859 of 8874
0 3 1
Phase 2b improvement rates with Lupuzor in the moderate to severe subgroup (SLEDAI >= 6) which is the criteria for inclusion in Phase 3:

Phase 2b at 3 months = + 67.6%
Phase 2b at 6 months = + 84.2%
Phase 3 at 9 - 12 months = + 100% ??

The above data was so good at the indermediate analysis point during the Phase 2a trial, they were allowed to end it early and begin planning for Phase 3, for which they were then awarded the 'gold standard' of a SPA and Fast Track status by the US FDA. For me it is not now about whether lupuzor works but just how big the improvement will be at 9, and 12 months and how many $billions IMM will be worth (particularly as there is independently corroborated evidence the P140 platform may be efficaceous in 12+ high value indicatrions, e.g. lupus, rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohn's, Guillan-Barre, Gougerot-Sjögren, etc.).

N.B.
Resetting the Autoreactive Immune System with a Therapeutic Peptide in Lupus
Prof. Sylvian Muller
Lupus (2015) 24, pg 412–418

"The phase IIb trial showed that after three months of therapy (three subcutaneous injections of 200 ug peptide/patient in addition to standard of care), Lupuzor improved Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score of lupus patients under active treatment by 67.6% versus 41.5% in the placebo group (p<0.025). After three additional months of follow-up, the improvement rate was 84.2% versus 45.8% (p<0.025). The side effect profile was unproblematic and the drug was well tolerated as evidenced by a very low drop-out rate."

www.lupuzor.com/Documents/Schall%20Muller%20Lupus%202015.pdf




Cracking post fella.

[ytsa2] 07/1/2018 15:26

If scsw rate so highly where do they or how do they get their information. Results are know to company only. Anybody know why tomorrow seems to be generating so much interest

[l0ngterm] 07/1/2018 15:03

Or NJB is using all the research conducted by posters to address any risks, that he may see without actually doing any research.Which is fair enough. So to test this theory. NJB: can you confirm that each addressable risk has a contingency in place, and that all that is left is successful pass/fail in phase III. on success the price will rise by a multiple of x, or drop based upon failure? And that most of your risks have now been answered

[cockerspaniel] 07/1/2018 14:53

Post phase III funding.

I doubt that this is going to be a problem, assuming of course, that the results are good.

The management are well aware of what is involved, and will have made contingency plans.

1 There are the usual routes - rights issue, placing to institutional shareholders.

2 There are also a few very high net worth private individuals who have participated in placings in the past. With good results, I expect they could raise £10m with a few phone calls.

3 Striking a licensing deal with a large upfront payment is possible (we are talking about $100m plus).

4 There are other sources of specialist finance.

[l0ngterm] 07/1/2018 14:12

It's still on the table though and can be used for leverage. It also demonstrates that if successful finance won't be an issue.

[hamila01] 07/1/2018 14:06

If you're talking about the Darwin arrangement then the facility expires in May 2018 as it was a 5 year arrangement.And to be honest I hope IMM never have to make use of this facility as it would have killed the share price. It's good investment advice to steer clear of companies drawing on such funding as it's commonly referred to as the Death Spiral.There was a lot of relief when the Lanstead arrangement was announced. It's worked extremely well over the 18 months so if additional funding is needed in 2018 (which I don't think it will....) then I'd rather see a new Lanstead deal.Sounds like the deal worked favourably for them too.GLA LTH's!

[l0ngterm] 07/1/2018 13:58

Or you filtered me lol. The company in my opinion covered all options in advance. Richards Warr (R.I.P.) our ex chairman, was an Ex banker and had significant experience. So science covered, negotiations tactics/risks covered. So It is purely down to results now, and negotiating a deal."Mr. Richard Leonard Warr, MA, Co-founded ImmuPharma PLC. Mr. Warr served as the Head of European Equity Distribution at Swiss Bank Corporation and Head of European Sales"Gla

[hamhamham1] 07/1/2018 13:39

Ahh, found it now, in your history, maybe it was deleted from general view because of the use of the word cr...ap ??

[hamhamham1] 07/1/2018 13:33

L0ngterm. Could you re-post the link or info?
I cannot see anything?

[njb67] 07/1/2018 13:26

Long, thanks for sharing. I had completely missed this. It makes a big difference.

Do we know on what terms equity would be issued. With any fundraising, the level of dilution is key.

[flavio_monteiro] 07/1/2018 13:18

Well researched LOngterm....

[l0ngterm] 07/1/2018 13:05

So whoever is stating the opposite is talking bs..

[hamhamham1] 07/1/2018 12:56

Arghhh. I have succumbed to repeating as well. Forgive me :)
hxxp://www.epo.org/learning-events/european-inventor/finalists/2017/muller.html