Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[aussieb3] 08/1/2018 10:02

Yeah prob was more sells on fri

[njb67] 08/1/2018 10:01

big, divi

I believe that staged payments similar to the Celgene/Impact deal could only happen if IMM licence out Lupuzor to another company. If IMM were bought out then it would be for an agreed price.

The difference between IMM and Impact is that we are publicly listed while Impact is a privately owned company. While Impact owners are free to agree an initial payment + top ups, it would be too complicated for a listed company with all its many shareholders.

[hamhamham1] 08/1/2018 09:54

I guess it means someone is accumalating?
The odds of several different people want 5500 shares over the space of a fews mins is pretty low.
6000 is so last year, 5500 is the new black :)

[divinessence] 08/1/2018 09:54

aussieb3 they accumulated stock on Fri in the 175+ range in readiness for Monday today (SCSW nap) and they are selling it with profit today. if you look at friday trades you will note most sells and today most buys. All a balancing act but you never rule out MMs tricks. However, looks good for IMM and I too see similar deal as Celgene in the not too distant future - 3 phases - upfront, fda and post fda.

[greatfull dead] 08/1/2018 09:41

hhh1,

"It's all guess work really???" Best part of any post I have read since I invested in IMM.

ATB,
GD

[aussieb3] 08/1/2018 09:39

Does make wonder with all these trades buys around the 5000 to 6000 if mm keeping it purposely at this price. Possible reason for it anyone

[aussieb3] 08/1/2018 09:35

Price seriously getting controlled at min , all buy today and not really moved

[hamhamham1] 08/1/2018 09:35

I have no idea on figures. It could be per drug, per platform or whole company buy out???
But it is kinda structured similar to the old Cephalon deal (but not per drug).
The upfront, FDA approval and sales target payment structure is almost nailed on.
No big pharma is going to pay large cash upfront.
The figures have got to be (in my mind anyway) high, starting with an upfront payment of far greater than the current Immupharma market capital, and then double that for FDA, sales incentives will be big, I would have thought any prospective buyer would want a min of $1-2bn sales a year to get their initial payments back in a short time frame?? It's all guess work really???

[stealth wealth] 08/1/2018 09:25

I think IMM's Phase 3 trial of Lupuzor ends late next week. They must be worth over £50 a share to a buyer judging by deals done elsewhere and the large number of illnesses the P140 platform covers.

[hamhamham1] 08/1/2018 09:19

You forgot to add the last couple of words (the date is issue is quite important)....
Separately, Panmure Gordon reissued a “buy” rating and set a GBX 100 ($1.24) price objective on shares of ImmuPharma PLC in a report on Thursday, January 26th.

[l0ngterm] 08/1/2018 09:18

Ham: any thoughts on the Celgene deal structure in relation to IMM. Looking at Lupuzor and P140 I can see how a milestone payment in relation to success in each disease could be applied here. But not sure if it's to early for the other diseases. Mind you the company are testing in the labs for.. Like I said any thoughts would be appreciated.

[hamhamham1] 08/1/2018 09:15

The only person who would bother me if they gave me a thumbs down is Caesar!

[ayl30] 08/1/2018 09:15

PANMURE CUTS IMMUPHARMA TO 'SELL' ('BUY') - TARGET 100 PENCE !!!!!

[happyman7] 08/1/2018 09:11

ref these thumbs up and thumbs down, i would not concern yourself with these, be like
NJB67, i see i had a post yesterday which was critical of NJB67 and i see it attracted 20 'greens', but is NJB67 concerned, well possibly not, judging by todays post's from him. The phrase, 'water off a ducks back', comes to mind.
Of course, only premium members are allowed to red thumbs down vote.

[hamhamham1] 08/1/2018 09:00

L0ngterm. I seem not to be a friend of them both either. Oh dear :)

[aussieb3] 08/1/2018 08:58

Long term there prob be back when has a mini dip, which all shares do they go up and down .

[l0ngterm] 08/1/2018 08:55

I would like to say good morning to my thumbs down followers. Nice to you folks are consistent.

[aussieb3] 08/1/2018 08:45

Yeah lots of buying going on today , I noticed that 6000 as che

[l0ngterm] 08/1/2018 08:43

On balance the Celgene deal does demonstrate CEO's will take large financial risks.The drug in question has safety issues and was released by another large pharma not long ago, due to these issues.So roughly 1 billion up front, 1.25 billion on fda approvals.We are further down the road with the development here. And hopefully with a lot less risk which we will know shortly. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/2f341adc-f40e-11e7-8715-e94187b3017e

[obiterdicta] 08/1/2018 08:41

So based on the Celgene deal $2.5 billion payable with approx 1/2 of that upfront and then 1/2 on approval from FDA, a further $4.5 billion when net annual sales reach $5 billion.

Converting to £'s and applying to IMM if that deal was struck now that would imply a share price of £2 billion when and if phase 3 passed and FDA approval for Lupuzor. That equates to approximately £16.00 share price, with a further £35.00 in share price/cash contingent on sales of lupuzor.

OD

[che7win] 08/1/2018 08:33

Someone is buying here 6000 shares at a time.

[njb67] 08/1/2018 08:27

One final comments, the Celgene deals gives you an idea of how companies value pipeline products / future indications i.e. very low, due to development costs and risk. The majority of the overall valuation is for the product ($1.4bn on approval and up to $4.5bn commercial targets). The remaining $1.1bn would include any valuation placed on the pipeline.

GLA

[spawny100] 08/1/2018 08:25

Another non-point njb - of course the amount someone pays is related to what they think the thing is worth doh!

[njb67] 08/1/2018 08:21

ham - I would expect that the size of the upfront and FDA milestone payments to also be linked to the overall valuation put on the product.

I would not assume that the absolute amounts that Celgene have paid for a deal and FDA approval will be what a company would be prepared to offer IMM.