Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[bigman786] 08/1/2018 08:18

And likely the way that IMM will be bought out. xxxBillions prior to approval then xxxxxxxxxxbillions upon approval.

[hamhamham1] 08/1/2018 08:14

what about the initial thoughts of $1.1bn upfront to keep regardless?
what about the initial thoughts of extra $1.4bn on FDA approval? (possible for IMM's Lupuzor over the next 12 months?)

[nw99] 08/1/2018 08:13

I am in Nice story

[che7win] 08/1/2018 08:10

Looks impressive to me.

[ny boy] 08/1/2018 08:07

Over 200p likely short term ie. next few weeks, close to the broker target 237p at best.

[njb67] 08/1/2018 08:06

big

not at this stage - would need to look at the financials and market opportunity to get a better handle on this.

initial observation is that they are paying max $7bn if all goes well - approval and commercial success, with annual sales of > $5bn. So this could be $7bn for something like $20-30bn lifetime sales.

[bigman786] 08/1/2018 08:05

Constant buys however .. refreshing however to read about that Buyout across the pond.

[bookbroker] 08/1/2018 08:04

Not such an impressive open!

[bigman786] 08/1/2018 07:56

That US buyout will likely take us higher today. Any thoughts nJb67.

[metis20] 08/1/2018 07:54

SCSW effect - currently 184p on the bid

[hamhamham1] 08/1/2018 06:47

I think those kinda figures are easily achievable for a big pharma buy out of Immupharma?
Maybe even change the dollar signs for pound signs due to the platform potential and other drums/ platforms in the pipeline?
That kind of approach works well for both Immupharma and big pharma buyer as the big pharma secures the future of the drugs potential at a relatively low upfront cost and is happy to pay billions extra on top based upon outcomes.
Immupharma will be happy as they know their drugs and willing to get the rest of the money along the line.

[hamhamham1] 08/1/2018 06:30

Yep chadders. Seems a few reporting on it now, basics are:

U.S. Biotech Firm Celgene to Buy Impact Biomedicines for up to $7 Billion.

The deal is structured in three parts, with Celgene paying $1.1 billion in cash upfront for the San Diego-based company.

Celgene will pay an additional $1.4 billion, depending on the receipt of U.S. Food and Drug Administration milestone approvals.

Finally, Celgene will make payments depending on sales, with a maximum of $4.5 billion due if annual net sales of Impact’s treatments exceed $5 billion.

[chadders] 08/1/2018 00:34

Conventional wisdom flies out the window. Up to 7 billion dollars for a fledgling company.

07/01/2018 10:05pm
Dow Jones News


By Jonathan D. Rockoff, Dana Cimilluca and Ben Dummett
Celgene Corp. is nearing a deal to buy biotechnology company Impact Biomedicines for as much as $7 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

The potential deal, which could be announced Monday, calls for Celgene to buy the privately held San Diego company in three stages, the people said. First there would be an upfront payment of about $1 billion, with the next two stages dependent on an approval of Impact's blood-disease drug from the Food and Drug Administration and successful commercialization, the people said.

Should the drug pan out as hoped, the deal could be worth about $7 billion in total.

Celgene, based in Summit, N.J., is one of the biggest U.S. biotechcompanies. It is known for its cancer-drug portfolio but has been trying to diversify beyond its top-selling product, multiple myeloma drug Revlimid, and move into immune disorders like the skin condition psoriasis.

Rivals have been seeking to sell generic versions of Revlimid, which accounted for $4 billion of Celgene's $9.5 billion in net product sales during the first nine months of 2017.

In Impact, Celgene would be paying up to acquire a startup established less than two years ago to revive a blood-disease drug known as fedratinib whose development had been halted by Sanofi SA in 2013 due to serious side effects. Impact's founders had developed and sold fedratinib to Sanofi, and then bought the rights back.

Last year the FDA agreed to let Impact resume testing of the drug despite the concerns about the side effects -- confusion and other neurological issues that result from a vitamin deficiency causing swelling in the brain. Impact has been developing fedratinib to treat bone-marrow disorders known as myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera that affect blood-cell production in tens of thousands of patients.

If approved, fedratinib would challenge a blood-disease drug from Incyte Corp. called Jakafi. Both drugs try to stop an enzyme that plays a key role in producing blood cells and driving the diseases.

Celgene has been under pressure from investors to do deals because new products like psoriasis drug Otezla haven't boosted sales as much as Wall Street expected. That has forced the company to lower its financial outlook and its highflying stock recently retreated sharply.

Celgene still has a market value of more than $80 billion.

[supernumerary] 07/1/2018 21:53

He's probably heard that Lupuzor can also cure naiveté...

[mitch101] 07/1/2018 21:39

and another Long........or the same.............check out naive ytsa2 profile

[l0ngterm] 07/1/2018 20:55

So based upon the below survey, we have two paid up clowns."And I wonder who is hiding in the background marking down any positive posts.Console myself with the fact the majority of posters are aware of risks but have a positive view on the company as a whole"We have a majority of thumbs up 3x as many, and 2x clowns who participate in a board, but think positive feedback is nonsense, so why don't they sell. Hmm who are they :-)..

[bazzer13] 07/1/2018 20:25

A company who pays them a upfront payment and royalties on sales for a distribution deal.

[ytsa2] 07/1/2018 20:18

What is meant by a Licence deal.

[l0ngterm] 07/1/2018 19:34

Here is one of the links Pete.http://www.mtairynews.com/news/35165/right-to-try-act-tries-to-provide-easier-access-to-experimental-drugs-in-north-carolina

[lukead] 07/1/2018 19:17

Hopefully you can incorporate into your post's the the SCSW IMM tip details delivered through members letterboxes this weekend, in due course,Hopefully an up day tomorrow, with the added bonus, of a licence deal RNS, suspect though that may be.

[ytsa2] 07/1/2018 19:15

Relatively new to Immupharma and considering investing tomorrow. All boxes appear to be ticked, just have to wait for results in Q1. Presumably could be out anytime until end of March. But trial only finished recently so ? Some way off yet.would it be at All possible for a major pharma. to step and make an offer before results out? It all sounds very promising. Any advice

[hottingup] 07/1/2018 18:51

top tips
5 Jan '18 - 10:53 - 8706 of 8891

"P140 is now being shown to affect other diseases with major indications ...rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohns, the list goes on and on, so a potential buyer, even 'though lupus is big enough, won't just buy it for lupus it will buy it for all these other indications as well."

(Vadim Alexandre [Northland Capital] IMM Presentation, 4/7/2017)


So we could be looking at a takeover to get the whole platform and it won't be cheap.

[hottingup] 07/1/2018 18:49

Vadim Alexandre (Northland Capital)
IMM Presentation
4/7/2017

34 min 45 sec:


"HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta)... so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment in lupus could command that price...because it already has...

...and then just in terms of pricing for the drug...Tim mentioned $20k per patient per year, that's not very expensive...Benlysta is commanding $35k per patient per year...(I am even more conservative in my model) if we have a drug that is as good or better (Lupuzor)...$40k, $50k per patient per year isn't unachievable...

...the regulatory position speaks miles...a SPA and Fast Track designation...the FDA dosn't dole these out lightly...the regulator is behind this drug...

...if the trial is successful we are going to see a re-rating of the stock price...the types of deals that are closed are not small deals...you could expect an upfront payment to dwarf the market capitalisation of the company...P140 is now being shown to affect other diseases with major indications ...rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohns, the list goes on and on, so a potential buyer, even 'though lupus is big enough, won't just buy it for lupus it will buy it for all these other indications as well...I definately think this stock is currently undervalued..."

Q&A
Q: What value do analysts apply to Nucant and Urelix?

A: "Zero, because...the valution for Lupus (Lupuzor) is so high, so its almost pointless to talk about it...If they were to be seperated in a sum of parts, they do have value but the lead asset is worth so much more... But you are right, the Urelix platform is very interesting a company like Novo would be very interested in that. Nucant...very good data...if it were to be valued standalone, would be worth a substantial amount of the currrent market capitalisation".

-------------

stealth wealth
5 Jan '18 - 18:54 - 8722 of 8891

That is a very good point VA made about the P140 platform (which includes Lupuzor) now attracting interest for more than just lupus (we know it may be able to treat 12+ high value indications) which obviously adds to its value.

One self-confessed industry participant recently stated:

"The Gilead executives have confirmed after the acquisition of Kite that it is the technology platform, not the future revenues of Yescarta that they have purchased rendering the price to revenue ratio meaningless."

So Gilead took over Kite Pharma for $11.9 billion cash in 2017, mainly to get their one platform.

My understanding is IMM have two platforms - P140 (which includes Lupuzor) and Urelix, plus numerous drugs.

If some big pharmas are more interested in platforms than revenues, and IMM have two platforms from which high revenues could never-the-less be generated, then presumably that makes IMM even more attractive as a takeover target and something on which we should attribute a high monetry value, particularly as we know P140 Lupuzor could address 12+ high value indications.

[perfect pete] 07/1/2018 18:40

Long, nice one thanks!