Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[best1467] 28/12/2017 11:23

THE REASON A DEAL WILL BE STRUCK WITHIN 3/6 MONTHS OF POSITIVE P3 READOUT IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BIDDING WAR BIG PHARMA WILL FALLING OVER THEMSELVES TO GET HOLD OF THE P140 PLATFORM MAKE NO MISTAKE .

[cygnusx1] 28/12/2017 11:23

They have already started the process for fda submission in sept/oct.

[njb67] 28/12/2017 11:15

A couple of additional thoughts.

Gilead paid $12bn for Kite, which was a 50% premium to the volume weighted average share price over the preceding 30 days. This was though prior to FDA approval of AxiCel, which followed six weeks later. At the time of the deal being agreed, both companies would have had a good idea where the FDA process was going to end.

Assuming positive Lupuzor results, the company will need a couple of months to prepare a submission to FDA. Assuming the FDA grants them "Priority Review", an FDA decision would take about six months, which is taking us up to the end of 2018.

IMM have a balancing act here, sell too soon and the realised price will be closer to current market cap than many would like, yet to delay runs into potential funding/dilution issues for existing shareholders.

[asat91] 28/12/2017 11:14

Yes njb you only have to look at HGSi shares after approval of Benlysta to see that negotiations can take a long time.

They did another fund raiser after approval, so I would expect this is the most likely situation for IMM if approval is granted as well. Having said that obviously it didn't really make a significant difference to the share price for HGSi and those invested pre-phase III were still handsomely rewarded

[topdiesel] 28/12/2017 11:11

njb67...you seem to forget that IMM has already had a deal in previous phase testing. read through the board and get some background. It might help you understand that due diligence has likely been done and phase 3 results will be a catalyst if positive. The fact that so many small pharmas enter deals at much earlier stages dispels the myth that it takes months after phase 3 results. Many deals are made prior to phase 3.

[njb67] 28/12/2017 10:58

Obit

On M&A timelines, you can not escape due diligence. No company CEO would be allowed by his Board of directors to enter into a M&A without having the lawyers on side, in case anything were to come out of the woodwork at a later date. Aside from any financial loss to the acquirer, shareholders are never too slow at taking legal action in the case of companies not taking due care of their investment.

No company wants to have another going through their books. It is not just the financials but commercial agreements they have in place, legal challenges etc. It is time consuming for both companies and reveals the DNA of the organisation - its operating model, cost structure etc. You would only allow this level of scrutiny once a deal is in place.

Would be interesting to see how long it took Gilead to reach a deal with Kite after entering into formal negotiations and then how long it took to close.

[herschel k] 28/12/2017 10:40

Obit,IMM has already said they have had interest/discussions with large pharmaceutical companies.........surely they will have been doing a degree of DD since those discussions started.They have phase 1 and 2 trial data for a start.H

[obiterdicta] 28/12/2017 10:34

NJB67 - always worth reviewing the bear points, so thanks for your input.

If phase 3 is successful then my view is that a M and A deal will be struck in weeks if not months. Fortune will favour the big pharma that is the quickest, not one that gets bogged down in over diligent DD.

OD

[flavio_monteiro] 28/12/2017 10:22

Njb67....Fair comment and welcome to the Imm B.B.

[njb67] 28/12/2017 10:22

mad - I stand corrected

Mr T - thank you.

[mr. t] 28/12/2017 10:20

njb67, welcome to IMM and thank you for your comments. It's nice to read your sensible posts - please don't stop despite the inevitable criticism you'll get from the rampers.

I've been reading through this thread and the previous one ( from the beginning the last couple of days - it's enlightening to understand more of the history and earlier quality debate.

[mad foetus] 28/12/2017 10:18

Njb It is not a fine tooth comb. You do not comb your teeth. It is a fine toothed comb: the teeth of the comb are placed closely together to remove any detritus from the hair.

[njb67] 28/12/2017 10:14

FM

Raising capital is not the same as being in a strong financial position, as the original post claimed.

Anyone can raise capital if you are prepared to give away large chunks of the business in return.

Best not to confuse activity (in this case raising cash) with creating/protecting share holder value.

[njb67] 28/12/2017 10:11

HK

We will have to agree to differ on this one.

Results not due until Q1, say March. Potential investors will need a couple of months to go through the clinical data with a fine tooth comb. If it is a takeover, then the lawyers would also need to be perform due diligence on IMM, this can take months on its own. Then you need to get any regulatory approvals that are needed for a takeover. All of this can easily take nine months to a year. A year is not a long time in pharma.

Worth looking up similar acquisitions in recent years to understand the process and timelines.

My experience of business development in this sector is you can work on a deal for a year+ before you even get to the point of a formal agreement, which can then take another year to complete.

[che7win] 28/12/2017 10:06

Wish I could buy at 1.74p

[flavio_monteiro] 28/12/2017 10:02

Njb67...point 10. With FDA approval it will be VERY easy to raise capital!

[herschel k] 28/12/2017 10:00

Njb If they are negotiating, then the phase 3 results are good, at which point I'm pretty sure IMM will have no issues raising ANY money that they need.......They will not be in a weak position at all.H

[njb67] 28/12/2017 09:55

hamham - list price may be $35k, what is the actual selling price though? Healthcare systems routinely secure medicines for price way below the official list price. Investors need to to understand the actual selling prices, not the list prices.

englishlongbow - loon? I have worked in this sector for 30+ years and have lost count of the number of new medicines I have brought to market, not withstanding various M&A activities over the years. I will offer you one piece of advice - whether you (and I) make money on IMM is not down to the clinical profile of Lupuzor, it will ultimately depend on the commercial realities in the market place. It is all too easy to get caught up in the scientific hype, what needs to be an investors focus is the commercial model and how a company can convert a product into hard cash.

Against the background of an ageing population with increasingly complexity (and expensive) health needs, do not under-estimate healthcare systems ambitions to reduce drug costs, especially for those perceived to be high cost. A google search will identify a range of initiatives at national, regional (EU etc.) and global levels (WHO) to address the perceived problem of high drug prices.

Sorry, your point 10 is simply not credible. Any company that is only funded until the end of 2018 is in a weak negotiating position. Time is one of the most powerful levers in commercial negotiations and any interested party will use this to its benefit.

[bigman786] 28/12/2017 09:38

With just over a 200mill MC @ present. I've only put £700.00 in @ 1.74p yesterday (starting small after losing many many thousands in MONi) ...Fingers crossed.

[englishlongbow] 28/12/2017 09:21

njb you loon.

1) Lupuzor produced the best ever efficacy and safety for a Phase 2b lupus drug (easily beating Benlysta) and feedback so far from Phase 3 suggests ongoing good safety (unlike Benlysta).

2) Lupuzor is also faster acting, cheaper to make and sell and has a higher profit margin than Benlysta.

3) Feedback from people who have taken Lupuzor has been amazing, e.g. Barbie Manchester and Melanie Regnaud. Barbie Manchester said she tried several Lupus drugs and for her Lupuzor was the best, and when she was taking it it was as if she did not have lupus.

4) Lupuzor targets the exact optimal point in the immune cellular chain to get a good result, unlike Benlysta.

"P140 peptide takes action further upstream in the immune response. It specifically shuts down so-called CD4 T-cells before they can aggravate the B-cells that cause Lupus." (IMM's website)

5) Lupuzor is a selective immuno-modulator, rather than a general immuno-suppressant like Benlysta, so Lupuzor has a key advantage and will automatically produce better efficacy and safety.

"This targeted approach marks a paradigm shift in treating autoimmune disease. Instead of shutting down otherwise healthy immune responses the T-cells are suppressed leaving the immune system modified but intact."(IMM's website)

6) They have perfected a way to extend the active life of the drug in the bloodstream.

7) Lupuzor has performed well preclinical in several other indications, supporting wider efficacy in multiple high value indications, so giving it multiple "bites at the cherry".

Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards:


- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Jan 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations (to be tested Jun 2016 onwards):
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)
- (Others to follow)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

8) IMM have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. (IMM, Sep 2017)

9) Lupuzor has a the 'gold standard' SPA and Fast Track status from the US FDA, putting it in an exceptionally strong regulatory position and guaranteeing approval within 6 months if it does OK, and market launch in 2018.

10) IMM raised sufficient cash in early 2017 to last to the end of 2018, allowing them to negotiate a Lupuzor deal or takeover of the company from a position of financial strength.

Basically Lupuzor is more efficaceous, safer, faster acting, and cheaper to make and sell than Benlysta, the platform is applicable to multiple high value indications, it will get to market to in 2018, they have a long and broad patent, a strong regulatory position, and sufficient cash to see them through a Lupuzor deal or takeover and market launch.

[hamhamham1] 28/12/2017 09:18

njb67. Isnt benlysta 30-35,000 dollars currently?
So if lupuzor was 25,000 dollars then that is already a 20% discount to benlysta?

[professor bang bang] 28/12/2017 09:17

Improvement rates with IMM's Lupuzor:

Phase 2b at 3 months = + 67.6%
Phase 2b at 6 months = + 84.2%
Phase 3 at 9 - 12 months = + 100% ??

For me its not now about whether lupuzor works but just how big the improvement will be at 9 and 12 months.

N.B.
Resetting the Autoreactive Immune System with a Therapeutic Peptide in Lupus
Prof. Sylvian Muller
Lupus (2015) 24, pg 412–418

"The phase IIb trial showed that after three months of therapy (three subcutaneous injections of 200 ug peptide/patient in addition to standard of care), Lupuzor improved Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score of lupus patients under active treatment by 67.6% versus 41.5% in the placebo group (p<0.025). After three additional months of follow-up, the improvement rate was 84.2% versus 45.8% (p<0.025). The side effect profile was unproblematic and the drug was well tolerated as evidenced by a very low drop-out rate."

www.lupuzor.com/Documents/Schall%20Muller%20Lupus%202015.pdf

[wi1l] 28/12/2017 09:14

Seems to be a lot of buying with the price remaining static at 170p