Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[rabito79] 30/12/2017 11:51

Njb, I believe a margin of ~90% was quoted at the AGM. However I can't recall what selling price this was based on.

[jpleight] 30/12/2017 11:43

super has a valid point. However, I think the lack of safe+effective treatments for lupus currently benefits lupuzor. I dont see the FDA negating an almost risk free treatment to patients another year or so while waiting for a second trial, I don't think it would be ethical. IF we obtain positive and significant data. Imho the minimum will be some sort of conditional aproval. it would be interesting to know if this has happened before in the industry and what sort of conditions fda would request. Also, remember than a deal may have been done already pending results. I dont think imm will accept offers below £10/20 pounds. 17 years of development deserves more but I worked in research for 8 years so may be biased!

[allonblack] 30/12/2017 11:43

15pc is net of costs. The pharma pays all of that. This drug will have been brought through all trials and de risked. The shareholders wont bear those costs.

[njb67] 30/12/2017 11:38

allonblack

a few thoughts..

£1bn annual revenues (so 100k patients at net £10k/per patient per annum - seems reasonable as a medium term patient number target if data is good)
IMM receive 15% of revenues - so £150m pa
Costs - look too low to me.
- manufacturing costs - raw materials, production facilities etc. These can be 20-30% of total revenues. This is an old paper but give a sense of the costs

hxxp://moodle.univ-lille2.fr/pluginfile.php/28162/mod_resource/content/0/Analysis%20of%20Manufacturing%20Costs%20in%20pharma%202008.pdf

- distribution costs - shipping product globally, tariffs and customs duties (topical as we may see these across the UK border post BREXIT)
- clinical trial costs - IMM may need to complete further studies as a condition of a fast track FDA approval - likely to be longer in duration and larger than those to date, so more expensive. Post licensing monitoring of patients may also be required.
- clinical trial costs - for pipeline assets, in order to grow the business
- tax on profits

So lets assume £150m revenue becomes £50m profit after tax. Would equate to 40p/share. With a multiple of 15, you are looking at around £6/share.

[herschel k] 30/12/2017 11:33

Starting to wonder if njb works for GSK.........wouldn't surprise me at all.

[njb67] 30/12/2017 11:14

super - sorry, no, it is not my area of expertise. It is am important question though.

[supernumerary] 30/12/2017 11:09

njb - where, and by what process? I think 'sufficiently convincing' leaves an awful lot of wiggle room - do you have any view on a lower boundary?

[wi1l] 30/12/2017 11:01

Have split my "losable" funds between IMM and FUM - Will be interesting to see which one is first out, whether by take over or failure on phase 111.

[njb67] 30/12/2017 10:56

super

I am not a regulatory person but my understanding is yes, provided the phase 3 data are sufficiently convincing.

[njb67] 30/12/2017 10:50

hit

There is nothing stopping a pharma co, hedge fund etc. making an offer today to the major shareholders. Given they can sell their share on the open market price at £1.70/share, any offer would need to be north of this. Most takeovers are at a premium to the prevailing share price and in most cases no more than 50% on top of the market price. If the acquirer got the support of the directors and big instis, they would have over 40% of the IMM shares and would only need a further 10% of shareholders to accept the offer for IMM to be sold. A guaranteed offer of £4/share pre-phase 3 results could be attractive enough for the big instis and directors to sell out. You could wake up one morning to see a recommended takeover sub £5.

I personally do no think this will happen, it is though a possibility. Nothing is ever a dead cert.

stan
you are right, the blinding will be in place until all the data are collected and the analyses conducted. My take on the RNS comments was that they have not seen anything in the 200 patients treated to date (half are on Lup, half on placebo) that they have not seen in the phase 2 studies although will not know at this stage in which of the treatment arms the events occured.

The anlayses should be quick to complete, especially if the data is being collected electronically. They will have pre-programmed analyses. The QC process should also be relatively quick as this is a relatively small study.

[supernumerary] 30/12/2017 10:23

njb - so I take it you're of the common opinion that they can obtain approval somewhere before they've run the second 200pp trial?

[rabito79] 30/12/2017 10:23

Thanks njb, am keen to understand if the 35% quoted is correct or realistic.

[stanman] 30/12/2017 09:59

I would be surprised if the results from individual participants are unblinded and analysed before the last individual has completed the study. There are then data from one primary endpoint and from a good few detailed secondary end points to be studied & analysed with the relevant statistics so I would not expect bottom-line study conclusions before mid--March.I agree that some of the share price estimates by some on the thread are fanciful indeed, but I remain a committed long-term holder and at last welcome 2018 - our make-or-break year.GLA. HNY.

[hitsha1] 30/12/2017 09:56

Hi, nob, just to let you know,they can’t just come and this company for under £2, so your talking rubbish, you talk about a process of pricing than there is a process of takeover, if there any inclination of this than price willl shoot up to the market value

[njb67] 30/12/2017 09:15

metis

I can only go on what they have said in the RNS, at the time of reporting, nothing new has been picked up, which is reassuring. We will need to confirm this once all data has been analysed.

Equally, if there were big problems, then they would be required to end the study early on ethical grounds.

[metis20] 30/12/2017 09:08

njb - from your post 8176 -

"I have no reason to believe that the phase three results will identify new safety risks, the comments to date from the company are reassuring. We will though only know once all the data has been analysed."

The last of the patients has been dosed and the last of the data will have been collected before the end of January. Presumably the side effects have been constantly monitored over the entire phase 3 trial period otherwise IMM would not have been able to report in the 21st Dec RNS -

"Continued robust safety record which remains consistent with Lupuzor™'s product profile as shown in its previous Phase IIb study."

IMO almost all the side effects data will already have been analysed. Do you have a view on this?

[njb67] 30/12/2017 09:08

rabito

variable in my experience. no two deals are the same and most tend to be confidential agreements.

sorry, not much help

[rabito79] 30/12/2017 09:05

Can anyone verify the the 35% royalties previously quoted as part of the Cephalon deal.NJB67 can you suggest typical royalties associated with licensing deals?

[njb67] 30/12/2017 09:04

ham

I am a commercial bod and not best placed to comment on the science, sorry.

[njb67] 30/12/2017 09:00

top

some would say that predicting a three bagger from here in three months is far from a conservative approach, although I understand the point you are making.

I do not believe that Lupuzor will net £25k per patient per annum, as healthcare systems simply can not afford it. Despite the claim that Benlysta sells for circa $35k, the UK price to the NHS is below £10k. Equally healthcare plans in the US simply do not accept prices companies put forward, they will negotiate hard. They will also play us off against the AZ product, assuming they are more similar than different.

Lupuzor will also be reserved for patients with severe Lupus, limiting the potential patient pool.

hxxps://www.nhs.uk/conditions/lupus/

The "£40 for starters"...."£;1600 per share easily" are looking at in my view inflated net prices and volumes. They also conveniently ignore the costs of doing business: manufacturing, distribution, employing people to manage the commercial process, tax etc. Even if IMM are taken out, these costs will be part of an acquirers consideration. In my view the £40+ predictions are not financial forecasts, more wishful thinking.

IMM could be bought today, and is currently trading at less than £2/share. There are plenty of pharmaceutical companies looking at IMM and the phase 2 data. While they will want to see the phase three results, which M&A Executive is going to recommend to their CEO that they bid £40/share in March when this could be bought for £2/share in Jan?

Can I see the share price significantly north of £2, yes, and my best guess is if everything goes well, then I could see £5 post positive Ph3 results. However, the further north of this figure people suggest, then the more I struggle with that being likely.

Hope useful

[hamhamham1] 30/12/2017 08:41

njb67. The main driver that keeps me happy with this company is the science. From my laymens understanding, IMM have managed to stop the transmission of bad signals from the APC cell to the receptors on the T cell. Thus stopping the sequence of events further down to generate the autoimmune bad side. Have you ever seen this approach before and what do you think of it's potential?

[mcsquared] 30/12/2017 07:13

When evaluating the share price if phase III is successful it has to be realised that IMM is reaching this position with a number of shares in issue that is much lower than many other companies in a similar position.

[topdiesel] 29/12/2017 23:54

njb67...I respect your conservative approach to guessing valuations. However, if you cannot guess at a valuation, then how can you guess that some of the valuations being thrown around on this board are ridiculous. Inside of your mind there is obviously a range in order to justify the absurdity of others valuations. If results don't occur until the end of February and the price continues to climb, we might see 4-5 pound before results. £5 is very attainable and could very well be the post phase 3 number. Thanks for playing half of my game.

[njb67] 29/12/2017 22:27

Bermuda

I work on the commercial side: product launches, national assessments, government relations, health policy, mergers and acquisitions etc.

top

Will try not to trudge...Predicting share price movements is a fools paradise. None of us know, if we did then we would all be fabulously wealthy...My best guess, which is what all of us are doing, is circa £5 with positive Phase three results and an indication from FDA that Lupuzor will get a US licence without significant restrictions on who can use the medicine. So a three-bagger from here. How much higher it goes will then come down to the deal IMM are able to negotiate to co-promote Lupuzor and their ability to strike deals with health care systems that work for both parties - generating usage at a price the system will accept. Or a take out price.

For me, the share price two to three weeks after the phase three results are announced will be a much better predictor of where this is going long term. Once potential investors have had time to make sense of the results and make a move.

GL